21 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The discussion in yesterday's game thread about the O's offense or lack thereof got me thinking about this. So I did a little stat digging this morning.

 

So the O's currently have the 2nd best record in all of baseball behind only the Tampa Bay Rays. Just how has that happened.

 

Lets say overall they are about 10th in offense or lets even say 7th to be generous. Average, OBP, OPS, Runs, HRs, SBs.

 

Maybe its the pitching. Here's how they stack up:

ERA - 13th

WHIP - 18th (this is the stat that sticks out to me)

Ks - 9th

BBs - 15th

HRs - 19th

OBA - 20th

 

Defense -

 

Fielding Percentage - 8th

 

So I look at the combination of these things and just don't see how that all adds up to result in a team with the 2nd best record in baseball. But there is one last stat that's perhaps telling and that is the O's have turned to most double plays in baseball.

 

That seems to be the only place where the O's standout compared to all the other stats. Is leading the league in DPs the reason that a #7 overall offense (again being generous) and an overall pitching staff that is lower half of the league can have such a great record? 

 

There are clearly other things at play here because the stats do not point to this team having that kind of record. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

They play and win a lot of tight games. They play to the scoreboard if that makes sense. They will get a big lead but give up runs to make it close. If the starting pitcher is pitching well they generally dont pull away. BP BP BP. And having a top 10 offense isnt anything to sneeze at. They prob shouldnt be 15 over .500 based on pure stats but its also not a crazy outlier either

[BSLRoseKatz]

They're 10-6 in one-run games and 3-3 in extra inning games (those two records can overlap obviously) so they're doing a solid job with the close wins which always helps

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Their Pyth record is 30-23. Actual record is 34-19. If someone wants to argue they are closer to being a team that is 7 over right now vs 15 thats fine with me.

[makoman]

Bullpen. They've been way better than the starters and later innings are generally higher leverage/more important. Has helped them win a lot of close games.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Ill also note something that many people will overlook and not notice. They are pretty high up in pitches per plate appearances. They make pitchers work. That often pays off eventually.


One last thing to note, the consistency in their offensive stats. The OP rattled off a lot of them and they are within the top half of the league in all of them. Think about the 2012-2016 Orioles and how they were dependant on the long ball. They werent a great OBP group. Def werent a good pitches per plate appearance group. They looked to mash the ball. That was their offensive plan. Hit HRs. It can be easier to expose an offense that isnt balanced. This group/lineup is pretty balanced.

[jamesdean]

Maybe it's nothing more complex than this team has fight in them.  And character.  Hyde takes a lot of criticism on this board but give the man credit too.  His players are prepared to go a full 9 innings and don't fold up the tent if they get behind 3 or 4 runs.  They mostly have average to below average hitters in their line-up with at best, average starting pitching. But they do have one of the better OBP and a solid bullpen.  And as Steve mentioned, they lead the league in double plays which either eliminates or limits big innings.  Mainly though, they have great team chemistry and enough talent to be just a little better than their competition on most days.  You can be seduced with the analytics all you want but there's intangibles involved with this team that supersede pure numbers. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Their Pyth record is 30-23. Actual record is 34-19. If someone wants to argue they are closer to being a team that is 7 over right now vs 15 thats fine with me.

Maybe this is what I am thinking in the back of my mind.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Maybe it's nothing more complex than this team has fight in them. And character. Hyde takes a lot of criticism on this board but give the man credit too. His players are prepared to go a full 9 innings and don't fold up the tent if they get behind 3 or 4 runs. They mostly have average to below average hitters in their line-up with at best, average starting pitching. But they do have one of the better OBP and a solid bullpen. And as Steve mentioned, they lead the league in double plays which either eliminates or limits big innings. Mainly though, they have great team chemistry and enough talent to be just a little better than their competition on most days. You can be seduced with the analytics all you want but there's intangibles involved with this team that supersede pure numbers.

They dont have mostly avg to below avg hitters. They have 2 that are league avg in Mounty and Henderson (99 and 98 OPS+) . One below in Mateo at 87. They have 5 that are 106 OPS+ and higher. Frazier is the 106. If you wanna call that avg thats fine. You have 4 that are way above avg in Rutsch, Ced, Santander, and Hays. Urias is getting the next most ABs he is 106. Again like Frazier slightly above avg. More fiction from james.

[jamesdean]

They dont have mostly avg to below avg hitters. They have 2 that are league avg in Mounty and Henderson (99 and 98 OPS+) . One below in Mateo at 87. They have 5 that are 106 OPS+ and higher. Frazier is the 106. If you wanna call that avg thats fine. You have 4 that are way above avg in Rutsch, Ced, Santander, and Hays. Urias is getting the next most ABs he is 106. Again like Frazier slightly above avg. More fiction from james.

It's opinion, not fiction.  You should learn to differentiate the two.  I'll give Hays his credit due- he's having a great year and the only one in the line-up that apparently has the ability to hit .300.  The others aren't even close.  You keep mentioning their rankings relative to the rest of the league but again, all that does is present a sad commentary on the current state of hitting in the sport.  Hey, if you dig .250-.260 hitters and they impress you, that's cool.  There certainly is a enough of them around both leagues to give you your fix. Doesn't impress me in the least.  Still a better alternative to the steroid era, though.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Hahaha. So we are calling them avg and below avg compared to your standard not their peers. Makes complete sense. We're done here. Old men bitching about todays world. A story as old as time. Let someone else entertain the nonsense.

[jamesdean]

Hahaha. So we are calling them avg and below avg compared to your standard not their peers. Makes complete sense. We're done here. Old men bitching about todays world. A story as old as time. Let someone else entertain the nonsense.

See ya! (LOL)  And one last thought- the peers standards suck too. 

[ivanbalt]

They seem like a better version of the 2012 Orioles.

[bmore_ken]

They seem like a better version of the 2012 Orioles.

I mean i'll take that considering what we've had the last few years. I just wonder if it's sustainable for another 4 months.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I still think this team has a legit playoff shot. I also think that this team isn't near as good as a 15 over .500.  The last two series have shown some light on the problems with this club.

 

Yes every team has their roster issues. But we have far too many arms in the bullpen that are simply not good enough among other issues.

[BaltBird 24]

Just absolutely terrible planning and execution today. Maybe they figured Bieber would be a tough win no matter what and kind of forfeited before it began, but that was brutal.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I dont get pulling Akin after 1 inning. Tells me Perez and Givens in particular were always gonna throw and thats literally your two worst guys in the pen.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

They really did essentially punt this game. I just cant get behind that. Agree a real starter shouldve been used

[BaltBird 24]

25 pitch first inning for Akin, but 20 of those were strikes. Gave up 1 R. Absolutely no reason he couldn't have gone another inning minimum.

If that was the logic should've just started Voth and brought in Akin to follow.

Piss poor roster management by Elias and the stat crew.

[Mike in STL]

25 pitch first inning for Akin, but 20 of those were strikes. Gave up 1 R. Absolutely no reason he couldn't have gone another inning minimum.

If that was the logic should've just started Voth and brought in Akin to follow.

Piss poor roster management by Elias and the stat crew.

Hey. These guys aren't just looking at the back of baseball cards you know.