8 replies to this topic

[BSLRoseKatz]

A closer look at Cole Irvin, Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo

 

https://baltimorespo...e-early-trends/

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Most excellent!!

[Mackus]

I don't think it logically makes sense, but 3 starts for a pitcher feels like a smaller sample than 16 games for a position player, even though its the same percentage of a season.

 

For Irvin specifically, that second start with 4 BB really feels like maybe its the one outlier.  He's had one rogue 4-BB outing in each of the past two seasons.  Last year he didn't even has a 3 BB game other than the one with 4 BB, and only two 3-BB games in 2021.  So while the rate is wildly out of whack, maybe its just an atypical sequencing in an otherwise normal set, but we jsut haven't gotten the rest of the set yet.

 

I'm not optimistic about Irvin, but I do think that his floor should be pretty high.  I'd be fairly surprised if he's so bad that he can't even hold down a job on his own merits.  Him being the 6th best guy we have seems the more likely path to him losing a spot to me than him being some 6+ ERA guy.  I do think it made sense to send him down, but Kremer also was in some danger.  Hopefully both right the ship.

[makoman]

The walk rate is definitely weird with Irvin so I would hope he can get back to normal and at least be close to a league average starter.

 

Gunnar I feel will be fine eventually and Mateo, who knows? Just gotta hope he figures it out.

[BSLRoseKatz]

The walk rate is definitely weird with Irvin so I would hope he can get back to normal and at least be close to a league average starter.

 

Gunnar I feel will be fine eventually and Mateo, who knows? Just gotta hope he figures it out.

 

Yeah I'm definitely curious if Gunnar swinging less is a front office suggestion/idea/etc or he's just personally being perhaps overly patient by himself 

[BSLRoseKatz]

I don't think it logically makes sense, but 3 starts for a pitcher feels like a smaller sample than 16 games for a position player, even though its the same percentage of a season.

 

For Irvin specifically, that second start with 4 BB really feels like maybe its the one outlier.  He's had one rogue 4-BB outing in each of the past two seasons.  Last year he didn't even has a 3 BB game other than the one with 4 BB, and only two 3-BB games in 2021.  So while the rate is wildly out of whack, maybe its just an atypical sequencing in an otherwise normal set, but we jsut haven't gotten the rest of the set yet.

 

I'm not optimistic about Irvin, but I do think that his floor should be pretty high.  I'd be fairly surprised if he's so bad that he can't even hold down a job on his own merits.  Him being the 6th best guy we have seems the more likely path to him losing a spot to me than him being some 6+ ERA guy.  I do think it made sense to send him down, but Kremer also was in some danger.  Hopefully both right the ship.

 

The random 4 BB start is a good point and if they kept him on the MLB roster I don't think I would've highlighted him but they clearly didn't like something from that 3-start sample even when he had 2 full seasons as a decent track record he's not walking people like that normally.

 

And because I was curious, first-pitch strike rate for the 3 starts 

 

at BOS: 14/22 (63.6 percent)

vs NYY: 8/21 (38.1 percent)

vs OAK: 11/20 (55 percent)

[You Play to Win the Game]

The walk rate is definitely weird with Irvin so I would hope he can get back to normal and at least be close to a league average starter.

Gunnar I feel will be fine eventually and Mateo, who knows? Just gotta hope he figures it out.

Oddly enough, same exact thing is happening with Manoah right now. Normally low walks, but is walking everyone so far. His ERA is over 7. Manoah a much higher ceiling, obviously, so the comparison ends there, but the point is 3 starts is just too small a sample. I can’t imagine the Jays are actually legitimately worried about Manoah yet.

[BobPhelan]

The walk rate is definitely weird with Irvin so I would hope he can get back to normal and at least be close to a league average starter.

 

From what I understand Irvin has made some tweaks to his offspeed stuff that should improve the quality of those pitches but he hasn't been able to hit his spots with them like he was before.

[makoman]

From what I understand Irvin has made some tweaks to his offspeed stuff that should improve the quality of those pitches but he hasn't been able to hit his spots with them like he was before.

Interesting, thanks. Hopefully he can either improve those pitches or else get them back to where they were.