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Balt Sun: For the Orioles to once again exceed expectations, these 5 players are the key


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 26 March 2023 - 10:34 AM

Balt Sun: For the Orioles to once again exceed expectations, these 5 players are the key



#2 Moose Milligan

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 08:34 AM

Adley, G-Rod, Gunnar, Means and the PTBNL.

 

These are all obvious choices, the 5th "player" is a bit of a cop-out answer.  

 

I think the whole starting rotation has to exceed expectations.  Bradish and Kremer have to be able to carry over their late season success from last year.  Gibson needs to eat innings and do his best Lyles impression.  Irvin needs to...I dunno, do whatever Irvin does.  Looks like he throws a lot of strikes, so that's good.  

 

I think the keys to this thing are Bradish and Kremer, they're a bit more unknown and have upside.  Gibson and Irvin are a bit more proven commodities, we should know what we're getting with these guys.  



#3 Mike B

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 08:36 AM

It wasn't like a lot of work went into this one.  The three top prospects, a returning John Means and someone else.


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#4 Mike B

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 08:38 AM

My concern remains the BP.  Whenever a group comes out of nowhere like last year, there is serious concern for a step back.  Add that to the fact that they were all ridden hard in 2022, I am worried.  


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#5 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 08:42 AM

Yes, Bradish, Kremer, and GRod are big this year. I lump all 3 together. Means could be a great 2nd half addition but we just dont know what his timetable is and how he will fare when he does return.


Im not concerning myself with the offense too much right now. Gunnar and Stowers will hopefully hold their own and we have enough sticks in AAA that could also come up and contribute. Not to mention if they needed to go out and get a DH at dome point to add some juice to tge offense it shouldnt be that hard to find or that expensive. Thats the one good thing about Santander continuing to get reps in the OF. You can afford to go find a stick only.

#6 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 08:46 AM


My concern remains the BP. Whenever a group comes out of nowhere like last year, there is serious concern for a step back. Add that to the fact that they were all ridden hard in 2022, I am worried.

If the BP falls apart it really doesnt matter much whst the rest of the guys do. We would be a .500 team at best. I dont need or expect Bautista and Perez to be as lights out as last year. The BP can take a small step back and we can be fine if we step up with the SP and offense

#7 Mike B

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 08:48 AM

If the BP falls apart it really doesnt matter much whst the rest of the guys do. We would be a .500 team at best. I dont need or expect Bautista and Perez to be as lights out as last year. The BP can take a small step back and we can be fine if we step up with the SP and offense

I am not worried about a small step.  


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#8 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 08:51 AM

To exceed expectations, there must be expectations.

When management decided to do nothing, my expectations were erased.

Whatever, just ready for some baseball and open to a pleasant surprise. Ready to be past all the drama since the trade deadline last year.
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#9 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 08:52 AM

We will find out if the pitching success last year was a result of a stellar process, or luck. I tend to think the process works here. I love everything I’ve heard about the analytics and coaching. So while there are logical reasons to be concerned about the bullpen and staff, if this process continues to produce better-than-expected results, we should be fine. There’s also an element to the process which involves finding pitchers who aren’t coveted but who show certain characteristics they are looking for in terms of leading indicators to untapped success. So they should be able to continue to find productive arms at a discount.

I’m far more worried about run production.

#10 dude

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 09:13 AM

In 2014, Chris Davis posted an ugly ,704 OPS and got suspended, the starting 2B posted an OPS under .600, Machado played half the games with a .755 OPS, and Wieters played 26 games and was done.  That wasn't a great team, but that was the core of what could be a good team.  If you had told anyone those would be the results of those "key 4 players", you'd have predicted a last place finish. 

 

Of course that's not what happened.  A fringe signing of Nelson Cruz turned into the HR leader. The Orioles released Pearce in late April and he came immediately back when Davis got hurt and wound up posting a .930 OPS.  The starting pitching posted career numbers this side of Ubaldo and Britton was lockdown in the bullpen....

 

...and the Orioles go wire-to-wire and win 96 games in route to that ALCS loss to the big market Royals.

 

Articles like this are just deadline fodder.  I get it, it's where you are and it's easy.

 

In 2021, the Orioles had Mullins post the only 30-30 season in Oriole history and Mountcastle had the best rookie season ever.....and we got the first draft pick in 2022.

 

Adley could win the MVP and Gunnar the RoY and we could still finish last.  They could both have generally poor or injured years and we could still finish first.  The Orioles had the worst projected team in 2022, with no products of 'rebuilding' and they won 83 games.

 

For the Orioles to exceed expectations, they need to play their ass off every night and find a way to win....but you can point to nearly every part of the roster to get this done.  Mountcastle could blow up.  Hays could blow up.  Irvin additional velocity (+LF, +def) could turn him into a monster.  Frazier has been a really good player and could find a grove. AS could be big.

 

This is the first complete roster the Orioles have fielded since 2018.  Of course everyone is looking at Adley and Gunnar and they should.  I think the GRod thing is little over blown since he is going to be limited some this year.  I don't think Means is actually any factor until 2024 so disagree there....and yes "something else" needs to happen.


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#11 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 10:48 AM

To exceed expectations, there must be expectations.

When management decided to do nothing, my expectations were erased.

Whatever, just ready for some baseball and open to a pleasant surprise. Ready to be past all the drama since the trade deadline last year.

Your expectations were erased. Really?

#12 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 10:50 AM

Did he just say Mountcastle had the best Os rookie season ever. My lord man.

#13 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 11:29 AM


Your expectations were erased. Really?

My expectations that this front office will do what it takes to augment and nurture along a playoff team? Yes. I think we’ll still be solid though.

#14 dude

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 12:16 PM

Did he just say Mountcastle had the best Os rookie season ever. My lord man.

 

I should have said "one of the best" and set the Orioles rookie HR record.



#15 Mackus

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 12:19 PM

To exceed expectations, there must be expectations.

 

I keep thinking of the term from a high school civics class: unfunded mandate

 

Elias is frequently saying the goal is the playoffs, but doing nothing to support the players and coaches actually charged with accomplishing that goal


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#16 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 01:15 PM

I keep thinking of the term from a high school civics class: unfunded mandate

Elias is frequently saying the goal is the playoffs, but doing nothing to support the players and coaches actually charged with accomplishing that goal

Except give them elite young players. The most valuable assets in the game. And a pipeline of very good talent behind the elite talent. For the coaches anyway.


He has given the players the tools and coaches that have allowed them to become MLB caliber players. Dont dare think thats a joke or to be taken for granted when the player development has been a joke.



#17 Mike B

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 01:19 PM

I keep thinking of the term from a high school civics class: unfunded mandate

 

Elias is frequently saying the goal is the playoffs, but doing nothing to support the players and coaches actually charged with accomplishing that goal

Elias seems to think last year was flukish or cheap John Angelos did not supply the budget Elias hoped for.

 

It makes the 8M spent on Frazier look ridiculous though.  That money could have been used elsewhere.


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#18 mweb08

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 01:20 PM

Except give them elite young players. The most valuable assets in the game.


Part of what makes them so valuable is they free up money to be spent on good, established players.

Well unless the goal is simply to line ownership's pockets and/or to "win" regarding surplus value on every move.
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#19 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 01:23 PM

Part of what makes them so valuable is they free up money to be spent on good, established players.

Well unless the goal is simply to line ownership's pockets and/or to "win" regarding surplus value on every move.

Which Im still hopefull will be done over time.

#20 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 27 March 2023 - 01:25 PM

Part of what makes them so valuable is they free up money to be spent on good, established players.

Well unless the goal is simply to line ownership's pockets and/or to "win" regarding surplus value on every move.

 

I think we got our answer to that one.






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