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BSL: Random Thoughts for Wild Card Week


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#21 bmore_ken

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 05:56 PM

If Lamar can't go, it doesn't matter who's out there. And it won't matter if Lamar is out there. The only difference will be the point spread. If Lamar plays, they'll lose by 10-14 points. If not, they'll lose by 17-20 points. Either way, it's one and done, baby and it won't be pretty.

 

 

I think they have a chance either way. I think the Bengals will be a tad more focused than yesterday, because quite frankly, they looked flat and careless at times. But this is the second game this year that the Ravens have managed to hold Joe Burrow to rather pedestrian offensive numbers.

 

I'm looking for a close game, and if given the breaks, the Ravens could certainly pull this out. I'm just not ready to put my money where my mouth is at this point. :)

That's where I  have some hope, but I still say it's all going to come down to Roman unfortunately.



#22 jamesdean

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 05:57 PM

The advantage to not IR’ing him is to force teams to game-plan on the contingency that Jackson gets activated. 

Absolutely true.  That's why Lamar isn't Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown.  Harbaugh's known for weeks that he wasn't going to play.  But he is working hard to get back.  Ok, John.  :roll:



#23 jamesdean

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 05:59 PM

That is not worth doing at the expense of a roster spot.

The advantage of not IR-ing him is he can play in Week 18 or earlier if he's able. You IR him after Denver and he's forced to miss weeks 14-17.

You keep mentioning a roster spot.  Who's so valuable in place of Lamar that would have made any major impact on games?  Someone off the practice squad?  Someone to maybe help on special teams?  Maybe another retread signing? 


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#24 Slidemaster

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 06:06 PM

I'm very ready for the Lamar drama to be over, one way or another.
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#25 jamesdean

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 06:10 PM

I'm very ready for the Lamar drama to be over, one way or another.

You and me both. 



#26 jamesdean

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 06:12 PM

That's where I  have some hope, but I still say it's all going to come down to Roman unfortunately.

"Unfortunately," being the operative word. 



#27 Mackus

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 06:33 PM


You keep mentioning a roster spot. Who's so valuable in place of Lamar that would have made any major impact on games? Someone off the practice squad? Someone to maybe help on special teams? Maybe another retread signing?

Yes, any one of those things is more valuable than the nothing they gain by not IR-ing if they know he's done. Or worth more than any subterfuge.

#28 jamesdean

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 08:06 PM

Yes, any one of those things is more valuable than the nothing they gain by not IR-ing if they know he's done. Or worth more than any subterfuge.

I don't think it would matter one iota.  



#29 Mackus

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 08:07 PM


I don't think it would matter one iota.


That must be why teams carry one man less than allowed so often.

#30 bmore_ken

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 08:11 PM

That must be why teams carry one man less than allowed so often.

I'm curious to know what you would have spent the roster spot on. 



#31 Mackus

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 08:25 PM


I'm curious to know what you would have spent the roster spot on.

A football player. Wherever they felt we needed depth. Elevating and protecting a PS guy would be a good idea. Think that's obviously more helpful than any mystery for other teams over whether Lamar could play or not.

But to be very clear, I'm saying Lamar was not hurt enough to IR, they felt there was a chance he'd be back in time to avoid doing that, and that's why they didn't. If they were certain, days after the Denver game, that he'd be unable to play the rest of the regular season, they 100% would've IR'd him.

#32 jamesdean

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 09:02 PM

That must be why teams carry one man less than allowed so often.

If it's a practice squad player or a retread signing, it wouldn't matter to anyone else either.  We're not talking about replacing half the team. I can't think of a single player the Ravens could have added that would have had a significant impact on any game since Lamar was hurt. 



#33 Mackus

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 09:12 PM

If it's a practice squad player or a retread signing, it wouldn't matter to anyone else either. We're not talking about replacing half the team. I can't think of a single player the Ravens could have added that would have had a significant impact on any game since Lamar was hurt.

Well they added Sammy Watkins recently. Not sure who else is on the street that could help anywhere.

Point is that last man on the roster is more valuable than nothing. More value than a tiny bit of uncertainty for the opponent. There is no reason not to IR Lamar if they knew he was toast. That's proof to me and should be to everybody that they didn't know he was done for the regular season 5 weeks ago.

Maybe it was long odds of a return, maybe it got worse and two weeks ago they knew he was done until maybe Wild Card. But they didn't know it after Denver. That's nonsensical.

#34 CantonJester

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 09:17 PM

That is not worth doing at the expense of a roster spot.

The advantage of not IR-ing him is he can play in Week 18 or earlier if he's able. You IR him after Denver and he's forced to miss weeks 14-17.

 

You absolutely do it if you can get away with it. Obviously, it can be on a week-to-week basis, and frankly, my guess is this is what's been happening.

 

Yes, any one of those things is more valuable than the nothing they gain by not IR-ing if they know he's done. Or worth more than any subterfuge.

 

Jackson changes every NFL team's approach to playing the Ravens. IR'ing him lets them focus the week prior on other things. The subterfuge (nice phrase, btw) is absolutely worth it if you can get away with it.


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#35 Mike in STL

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 10:02 PM

If they knew he was definitely not coming back within 4 weeks then they would have IR'd him. Like they did with Duvernay. They wouldn't just delete a roster spot by keeping him active for no reason.

There is absolutely no way that the Ravens knew 5 or 6 weeks ago that Lamar had no shot at playing in the regular season. Not a reasonable suggestion.


It’s gotta be a money saving move. I can’t recall this year, but last year for several games they played with a 51 man roster. 2 practice squad call ups then 5 inactives.

They are essentially fine with a 52 man roster and are arrogant enough to think they are gaining any kind of advantage, or making the opponent think LJ could start out of no where.
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#36 jamesdean

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Posted 10 January 2023 - 06:36 AM

Well they added Sammy Watkins recently. Not sure who else is on the street that could help anywhere.

Point is that last man on the roster is more valuable than nothing. More value than a tiny bit of uncertainty for the opponent. There is no reason not to IR Lamar if they knew he was toast. That's proof to me and should be to everybody that they didn't know he was done for the regular season 5 weeks ago.

Maybe it was long odds of a return, maybe it got worse and two weeks ago they knew he was done until maybe Wild Card. But they didn't know it after Denver. That's nonsensical.

Don't be so sure. 



#37 PrimeTime

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Posted 10 January 2023 - 09:59 AM

If Lamar can't go, it doesn't matter who's out there. And it won't matter if Lamar is out there. The only difference will be the point spread. If Lamar plays, they'll lose by 10-14 points. If not, they'll lose by 17-20 points. Either way, it's one and done, baby and it won't be pretty.

 

If Lamar is healthy, what leads you to believe that they will lose by double digits? The same matchup in Week 5 resulted in a Ravens victory and the Ravens are healthier now then they were then, plus the Bengals are down the right side of their Oline. 

 

I can absolutely see a lopsided victory if we have to start the backup QB du jour but with Jackson under center, I think we have better than a puncher's chance.


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#38 jamesdean

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Posted 10 January 2023 - 10:47 AM

If Lamar is healthy, what leads you to believe that they will lose by double digits? The same matchup in Week 5 resulted in a Ravens victory and the Ravens are healthier now then they were then, plus the Bengals are down the right side of their Oline. 

 

I can absolutely see a lopsided victory if we have to start the backup QB du jour but with Jackson under center, I think we have better than a puncher's chance.

I guess I'm not buying into Lamar saving the day like many are clinging to.  The guy hasn't played for weeks, hasn't practiced, may not practice this week either leading up to the game and is going to be very rusty, especially throwing the ball.  You can just about forget him running on designed plays or even scrambling for yardage.  Not with a bum knee that's far from 100%.  He's going to stand in the pocket and try to out dual Burrow. Not a recipe for success.  Sorry, I hope I'm wrong but having Lamar out there just keeps the game a bit closer in my opinion. 



#39 PrimeTime

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Posted 10 January 2023 - 10:59 AM

I guess I'm not buying into Lamar saving the day like many are clinging to.  The guy hasn't played for weeks, hasn't practiced, may not practice this week either leading up to the game and is going to be very rusty, especially throwing the ball.  You can just about forget him running on designed plays or even scrambling for yardage.  Not with a bum knee that's far from 100%.  He's going to stand in the pocket and try to out dual Burrow. Not a recipe for success.  Sorry, I hope I'm wrong but having Lamar out there just keeps the game a bit closer in my opinion. 

 

That's fair. 

 

I wonder if we're overestimating Cincy a little bit. Granted, they've had a nice run since the bye week and they don't need to apologize for winning games but they haven't been dominating, per se. Being down 2 starting offensive linemen is a big X factor in this game. Also, if Peters and Stephens return, obviously the secondary improves. Adding Ojabo to the edge rotation is also a big plus for the Ravens.

 

The negatives for Baltimore, besides Lamar's status, are the steaming pile of WRs and Edwards' status. Hopefully, Gus flies through the protocol and is ready to roll on Sunday night. We will really need the JK-Gus, 1-2 punch and not just for the rushing attack but also to utilize play action, which I believe will be a key to the offensive performance on Sunday night.

 

No matter who's taking the snaps, I feel like there's an intangible factor with this game where the Bengals seem to be acting as if they're the anointed ones, who have a birthright to advance. Whereas the Ravens seem focused and determined to prove something. I don't know if it amounts to a hill of beans but I have a gut feeling that it might.


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#40 Mackus

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Posted 10 January 2023 - 11:08 AM

I guess I'm not buying into Lamar saving the day like many are clinging to. The guy hasn't played for weeks, hasn't practiced, may not practice this week either leading up to the game and is going to be very rusty, especially throwing the ball. You can just about forget him running on designed plays or even scrambling for yardage. Not with a bum knee that's far from 100%. He's going to stand in the pocket and try to out dual Burrow. Not a recipe for success. Sorry, I hope I'm wrong but having Lamar out there just keeps the game a bit closer in my opinion.

I think Lamar gives them a chance. Good chance if he's his usual self and still a much better chance than Huntley even if he's gonna need to mostly be an immobile pocket passer due to the knee.

Lamar isn't an elite passer, but he's far superior at throwing and decision-making than Huntley or Brown.




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