6 replies to this topic

[dude]

Brought up in the Hot Stove thread, but it's kind of hard to discuss amongst the various ongoing thoughts in there.

 

....but since is been recently referenced on social media (who could have predicted??) 2035 has deemed discussion ok. 

 

I don't know what Matt Arnold will do and what the direction given from Mark Attanasio will be, but they missed the Playoffs on the last (regular season) Game of the year and have a massive investment in Yelich and if you aren't aware, have the smallest (by a fair margin) metro population in MLB.

 

They ran a 130+M payroll last year and had 18 arbitration cases heading into the off-season.  That team, that position is going to thin down that group.  The traded Renfroe to manage salary to the Angels and surprisingly picked up Wong's 10M option although that may just be to trade him and get something (Mariners anyone?) Their top prospects are dominated by OFers, you can mostly ignore the rest of the list.

 

While there's a couple different paths, the most likely/reasonable path is they re-configure their team balancing performance and cost risks and head into 2023 looking to compete in a soft NL Central.

 

That's why they'll likely pick between Burnes and Woodruff, trade one to create 2023 opportunity (add Talent, manage costs) and try and re-sign the other.  Anchor the rotation and build the opportunity you can.

 

I point this out in response to Mackus' comment in the other thread.  While they can certainly demand 'higher rated' prospects in a trade, that may clearly not be their focus in the trade.  Adding a guy like Holliday may look good for the "trade evaluation' crowd, but if you don't build out these next next couple years and are trying to compete...who cares.

 

So...given those perspectives....

[dude]

A bunch of options have been discussed for the Orioles rotation but I'm not sure anyone (short of maybe a healthy deGrom) really moves the ceiling for the Orioles rotation.  I'd argue you can raise the floor and reduce risk of one (or more if you wanted) the younger guys.  For the sake of this point, I'm going to include Dean Kremer as the player with an improvable floor.

 

SPs like Verlander, Bassitt, Tallion, Rodon have been discussed through FA and trade opportunities like Lopez, Bieber, Woodruff and Burnes discussed also.

 

If you lined all of those guys up (maybe a different thread in detail or here later) and pulled together a risk assessment of performance opportunity, durability, cost (trade and/or $$), years, the best option for me would be Brandon Woodruff.

 

I think Burnes and Bieber are better, but I also think you can't get either of them to extend where the recent Luis Castillo contract provides a real framework for locking up Woodruff for 2-3 years into FA.

[Mackus]

Prefer Burnes but down with Woodruff as well.

I'd be a lot more comfortable with the single SP plan if it's Burnes. I don't like Woodruff quite enough to be the only guy we add, but Woodruff + Bassitt or Taillon or Walker or Manaea would be quite nice.

[BSLRoseKatz]

I'd be willing to offer anyone besides Grayson/Adley/Gunnar for Burnes, probably wouldn't want to do Holliday and Cowser but I could definitely live with getting rid of one for 2 years of an ace if they feel good about their chances of an extension  

[dude]

I'd be willing to offer anyone besides Grayson/Adley/Gunnar for Burnes, probably wouldn't want to do Holliday and Cowser but I could definitely live with getting rid of one for 2 years of an ace if they feel good about their chances of an extension  

 

...but Burnes and Bieber (another guy similar to Burnes) are unlikely to put an extension together given their age and resume.  They'll be FAs when the Mets are done with a 43M/per Scherzer and Verlander's 2-year deal is up.

 

Woodruff is 29 and not a FA for 2 more years...so it might make a lot of sense for him to lock into a 4-5 year deal and ramp up his guaranteed lifetime earnings.  Luis Castillo just signed a deal you can build something off of.

 

I don't think Woodruff increases the ceiling of the team that much....Kremer was similar this year, but there's certainly more performance risk with Kremer than Woodruff.   

 

The Brewers need to make some choices.  They were going to have to, it's just a question of how they want to build the 2023 team.  If they think they can get all of the things they need and go after prospect capital, cool for them.

 

They need to fix Catcher, a bat and 3B defense.  Getting a pitcher pitcher to replace Woodruff could be part of it.

[dude]

I was going to comment on this elsewhere, but here's Bob's trade for Burnes from his "dream offseason" post....

 

Orioles get RHP Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers for OF Colton Cowser, INF Jordan Westburg, OF Heston Kjerstad, OF Austin Hays, and INF Ramon Urias

 

I don't think Urias is a huge piece for a trade, but I think he could be a valuable piece in a trade for the Brewers (even if they went other ways to get him).  The GG defense has to interest them (they've struggled to perform at 3B in recent years) and his brother, Luis Urias plays for the Crew.

 

No idea is Westburg would interest them or not.  Wily Adames shows up in trade rumors, but it could make more sense to keep him try to solidify the short-term options.  Obviously JW could play 2B or 3B also.

 

The Brewers don't need OFers.  They have the fastest rising prospect this side of Gunnar Henderson in Jackson Chourio.  Garrett Mitchell (1-20 in 2020, a guy that was rated as high as #6) likely starts in CF.  You have Sal Frelick (1-15 in 2021 another guy falling down the board in  the 1st rd....883 OPS across 3 levels finishing at AAA) soon enough and Joey Wiemer (.888 OPS finishing at AAA) as near term options.  Maybe they'd want a guy like Hays or Santander for the year and let Frelick/Wiemer percolate in the minors.  

 

If you just wanted to try and trade for value, ok, but if the Brewers are trying to win, stacking up depth you just need to trade for something else just means you need to go ahead and trade for something else.  There's nothing wrong with that, but you likely bring a 3rd or even 4th team into play to do that.

 

Generically, I think there's enough there to get Burnes (probably)...I'd say swap out Kremer for Kjerstad...but it's still only 2 years of Burnes.

 

I think you don't have to go that far (in total value) to get Woodruff and you have a better chance of keeping him beyond 2 years.

[dude]

.... and surprisingly picked up Wong's 10M option although that may just be to trade him and get something (Mariners anyone?) 

 

Brewers trade Wong to Mariners for Winker (one-year OFer) and Toro (3B/2B)