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Orioles.com: How will '23 rule changes affect the Orioles?


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 09:48 AM

Orioles.com: How will '23 rule changes affect the Orioles?

https://www.mlb.com/...le-changes-2023



#2 dude

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 10:48 AM

I'll comment on the schedule stuff, but the shift changes should benefit the Orioles significantly and Elias missed that answer.

 

This lines up with the base size and the pickoff changes (didn't even include that one, right?).  So throw in the shift changes and athleticism (speed, defense) comes at a premium now.

 

The entire goal of shifting was to get to expected batted ball locations and essentially shrink the playing field.  If you aren't going to hit the ball here or here, why stand one defender over there with little (or no) opportunity to impact the play.

 

The analytics associated with that means you can take a trash can (defensively) and set it in the right location and affect things like BABIP which has secondary impacts to pitching innings, confidence (yours and hurting theirs).  Shift changes bring defending the whole field back into play so getting to many of these balls now will be about your infield and outfield defense.

 

The Orioles should have plus defenders everywhere.  Both glove and speed.  

 

Base stealing makes something of a comeback so you get your steals and have a quality defensive catcher to limit the opponent.  We focus on pitch framing and care less about catch-and-throw, but increased consequences of stealing opportunity will push some guys on roisters and limit others.

 

The Orioles are well positioned in 2023+ to take advantage of that and if other teams want to, they'll have more roster work to do.


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#3 dude

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 11:09 AM

I think the schedule stuff means you have less of control of where you wind up.

 

The other teams in the Division are playing those other teams too.  So you win and they win and you can't make up ground, build a lead, whatever.  You go head-to-head and you put a loss in their column.

 

Maybe you get lucky some years with teams in the Division, but there was always the likelihood that you were competing against competitive teams.  When we started this rebuilding BS, people argued that by losing now, we'd be able to increase (dramatically) the opportunity to win later.  That has not manifested itself in any way and we've seen the reduced expectations of "a competitive Division".



#4 Old Man

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 11:10 AM

I do not like banning the shift.

 

You pitch the ball, they try to hit the ball, where you are not at, you try and be where you think you have the best change to get the ball.

 

Whoever executes better, can score.



#5 dude

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 11:30 AM

I do not like banning the shift.

 

So I find these communities of thought hypocritical.  I'm not trying to beat everyone up.

 

Shifting promotes 3-true outcomes.  There's no defense for a walk or HR and the strikeout is the same.

 

Banning the shift should move The Game back to some more athleticism. Harder to hide bad defense (for the bat) in the field so DH gets used more there (and that's fine) but more balls finding grass, more balls up the gap, more guys on base, premium on running balls down.  Isn't that the 'action' fans desire?

 

Banning the shift moves away from a consequence of analytics that many (most?) people say they didn't like (ie, increasing 3-true outcomes).


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#6 weird-O

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 12:05 PM

I do not like banning the shift.

 

You pitch the ball, they try to hit the ball, where you are not at, you try and be where you think you have the best change to get the ball.

 

Whoever executes better, can score.

Historically speaking, the league has always preferred a big offense version of the game. They lowered the mound in the 60's, turned a blind eye to roids, and now banning the shift. They want slow pitched softball type scores, because pitching duels aren't exciting to casual fans.   


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#7 Old Man

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 12:10 PM

Historically speaking, the league has always preferred a big offense version of the game. They lowered the mound in the 60's, turned a blind eye to roids, and now banning the shift. They want slow pitched softball type scores, because pitching duels aren't exciting to casual fans.   

dont forget the juice ball era. :)


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#8 mweb08

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 02:21 PM

So I find these communities of thought hypocritical. I'm not trying to beat everyone up.

Shifting promotes 3-true outcomes. There's no defense for a walk or HR and the strikeout is the same.

Banning the shift should move The Game back to some more athleticism. Harder to hide bad defense (for the bat) in the field so DH gets used more there (and that's fine) but more balls finding grass, more balls up the gap, more guys on base, premium on running balls down. Isn't that the 'action' fans desire?

Banning the shift moves away from a consequence of analytics that many (most?) people say they didn't like (ie, increasing 3-true outcomes).


One could dislike the process and like the result without being hypocritical.
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#9 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 02:49 PM

So does the enlarged bases mean time-to-plate will be a thing again?



#10 Mackus

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 03:06 PM

So does the enlarged bases mean time-to-plate will be a thing again?

Bases will now be 4.5" closer than previously.

According to my wife that is a really noticeable change, definitely bigger than all the basepath distance changes she's seen before. Really, it's fine. Really.
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#11 russsnyder

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 03:15 PM

While I think the Orioles will benefit from the rule changes, I can't stand any of them with the exception of the pitch clock. With that said, I'll live and continue to watch the game that Manfred is trying to bastardize.
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#12 weird-O

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 03:28 PM

While I think the Orioles will benefit from the rule changes, I can't stand any of them with the exception of the pitch clock. With that said, I'll live and continue to watch the game that Manfred is trying to bastardize.

It messes with this era's stats in the context of the history of the game. Other changes have done that, but those changes could usually be justified. This one can't. I have a hard time believing "player safety" as a viable reason. And even if avoiding collisions is truly their reason, that still doesn't make sense with regard to 1B. A (usually) stationary 1Bman isn't much of a collision threat to a base runner.  


Good news! I saw a dog today.


#13 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 06:04 PM

I think the schedule stuff means you have less of control of where you wind up.

 

The other teams in the Division are playing those other teams too.  So you win and they win and you can't make up ground, build a lead, whatever.  You go head-to-head and you put a loss in their column.

 

Maybe you get lucky some years with teams in the Division, but there was always the likelihood that you were competing against competitive teams.  When we started this rebuilding BS, people argued that by losing now, we'd be able to increase (dramatically) the opportunity to win later.  That has not manifested itself in any way and we've seen the reduced expectations of "a competitive Division".

You can argue all you want (and much rightfully so) that not every team is "trying to win."  However its an irrefutable fact that year in and and year out the ALE is going to have at least 2 teams in the top handful of teams in baseball salary wise. The positive impact of the schedule change is that the rest of the league must now play more of their games against the ALE money bags. So yes the O's will end up playing the same teams as the Yankees and Red Sox. But the huge difference IMO is that the delta between how many times the O's have to play them compared to teams in other divisions has now shrunk. Given that multiple wild cards can come from the same division this seems to improve the O's chances to make the playoffs.


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#14 russsnyder

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 06:12 PM


It messes with this era's stats in the context of the history of the game. Other changes have done that, but those changes could usually be justified. This one can't. I have a hard time believing "player safety" as a viable reason. And even if avoiding collisions is truly their reason, that still doesn't make sense with regard to 1B. A (usually) stationary 1Bman isn't much of a collision threat to a base runner.

The collisions at first occur when the throw pulls the fielder into the path of the runner. A safety bag set up in foul territory would help solve this issue more easily than enlarging the bag IMO. The safety bag would also cut down on runners going outside the lane going down first base. I have no idea how larger bags at second and third make the game any safer. Manfred's a clown show who can't get out of his own way.
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#15 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 06:55 PM

I wish I could find the stats again. These aren’t exact but the difference in BAPIP is about right.

Before shifting was prevalent in say 2015, league BAPIP was like .236. Then there were about 3,000 shifts in 2016 and BAPIP was .234. Then there were 10,000 shifts in 2017 and BAPIP was .237. Then there were 40,000 shifts in 2018 and BAPIP was .236.

Basically, shift or not, teams are still getting hits in play at the same rate.

I don’t think shifts had the effect people think it had. For every lumbering jock who tries to jack one over the shift and hits right into it, there is a smart baseball player who sees a free push bunt to an unmanned 3rd base and takes it. Not to mention when they shift on a lefty then pitch him low and away so sometimes you accidentally go with the pitch and hit it where no one is standing.
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#16 dude

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 06:57 PM

But the huge difference IMO is that the delta between how many times the O's have to play them compared to teams in other divisions has now shrunk. Given that multiple wild cards can come from the same division this seems to improve the O's chances to make the playoffs.

 

I think if you want to consider the opportunity (especially with the expanded WC format) to snag a WC, I'd probably agree this is better.  If the ALE is beating up all of the other teams that does reduce the AL win totals so maybe better opportunity if you are also handling your business.

 

If your goal is to win the Division (did we really lose so much to hopefully make the WC?) I'd argue you want the head-to-head to make up ground.

 

I really don't care about the schedule, it is what it is.

i don't care what other teams do, I want to build my opportunity and then go play my ass off.



#17 Mackus

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Posted 14 November 2022 - 07:20 PM

I wish I could find the stats again. These aren’t exact but the difference in BAPIP is about right.

Before shifting was prevalent in say 2015, league BAPIP was like .236. Then there were about 3,000 shifts in 2016 and BAPIP was .234. Then there were 10,000 shifts in 2017 and BAPIP was .237. Then there were 40,000 shifts in 2018 and BAPIP was .236.

Basically, shift or not, teams are still getting hits in play at the same rate.

I don’t think shifts had the effect people think it had. For every lumbering jock who tries to jack one over the shift and hits right into it, there is a smart baseball player who sees a free push bunt to an unmanned 3rd base and takes it. Not to mention when they shift on a lefty then pitch him low and away so sometimes you accidentally go with the pitch and hit it where no one is standing.

 

BABIP has gone down a small amount in the past few years.  It used to hover very close to 300 (296-300 from '13-'19), but its dropped to between 290-292 since 2020. Not a big drop.

 

What has dropped moreso is the percentage of balls in play, from about 68% down to 63% or so.  Ticked back up to 65.4% this past year.  This is mainly driven by a huge increase in strikeouts, though HR and BB have risen slightly as well.  



#18 ivanbalt

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Posted 15 November 2022 - 08:37 AM

If banning the shift doesn't give MLB what they want, maybe a base can be awarded for a good launch angle or exit velocity?


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#19 Mike B

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Posted 15 November 2022 - 03:32 PM

I guess I am in the minority, because I'm glad they are limiting the shifts.  Maybe it is because I am older, but I hate seeing the 2nd or third baseman in right field, and I like seeing the shortstop make plays in the holes or ranging behind second base.  

I think the elimination of the shift will help Rutschman add points to his average, because he seemingly pulled numerous groundballs into the 3-4 hole.  Santander and Mullins too.


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#20 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 15 November 2022 - 04:45 PM

I guess I am in the minority, because I'm glad they are limiting the shifts.  Maybe it is because I am older, but I hate seeing the 2nd or third baseman in right field, and I like seeing the shortstop make plays in the holes or ranging behind second base.  

I think the elimination of the shift will help Rutschman add points to his average, because he seemingly pulled numerous groundballs into the 3-4 hole.  Santander and Mullins too.

I am old too so I think they should just do it right. Place 10ft diameter circles on the field for the 7 positions outside pitchers and catchers. Rule would be that the fielder must have both feet inside the circle until the pitch is thrown.  :mrgreen:






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