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O's Declining Lyles 2023 Option


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#1 BaltBird 24

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 01:57 PM

Might belong in the hot stove thread, but interesting move. Figured he was a lock to return just based on his stability.

#2 NewMarketSean

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 02:04 PM

He was solid for us when we needed stability. But we should be looking to upgrade.


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#3 BaltBird 24

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 02:06 PM

Hope for better, but could do way worse for a 4th/5th starter. Dependable arm who's going to keep you competitive more times than not.
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#4 NewMarketSean

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 02:09 PM

Spitballing, but it might be cheaper to pay him the $1M buyout and then re-sign him for less than $11M.


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#5 mweb08

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 03:27 PM

He made a lot of sense for a team that needed an arm to eat innings and wasn't trying to win. He shouldn't make sense for next year though if it's really time for liftoff.
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#6 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 04:07 PM

So I am pretty disappointed at this point. I do not believe the O's will upgrade with 2 starters better than him. If they do then fantastic but not holding my breath.



#7 weird-O

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 04:09 PM

Spitballing, but it might be cheaper to pay him the $1M buyout and then re-sign him for less than $11M.

It could be. But $11M seems to be the going rate for a pitcher with his stats. 


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#8 Slidemaster

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 04:11 PM

I figured they'd pick him up because he was relatively inexpensive stability.

I hope this is a precursor to some bold moves.

#9 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 05:23 PM

I'd have kept him as an insurance policy, whether that's because they're unable to acquire anyone else, or if they do but end up having their depth tested by injuries or ineffectiveness. If he did end up being superfluous, you could always have traded him.


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#10 Mackus

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 05:30 PM


I'd have kept him as an insurance policy, whether that's because they're unable to acquire anyone else, or if they do but end up having their depth tested by injuries or ineffectiveness. If he did end up being superfluous, you could always have traded him.

Yeah, me too. Won't matter as long as they upgrade, but I want two vets to go with the young guys. Not just one. Lyles could've been one. If you can get two guys better, then great.

#11 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 05:53 PM

I'd have kept him as an insurance policy, whether that's because they're unable to acquire anyone else, or if they do but end up having their depth tested by injuries or ineffectiveness. If he did end up being superfluous, you could always have traded him.


That was my thinking as well. I’m guessing they put out some fliers and figured the return in a trade wouldn’t be significant enough as they plan to upgrade from him either way.

#12 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 05:59 PM

That was my thinking as well. I’m guessing they put out some fliers and figured the return in a trade wouldn’t be significant enough as they plan to upgrade from him either way.

 

Yeah, that's probably the case right now. But next March when clubs are preparing to break ST it could be a whole different story. Someone always finds themselves in need of reliable SP that time, even if just short term. Worst case, the Orioles could very well find themselves in that situation. Starting pitchers seem like one of those things you accumulate as many as you reasonably can going into ST, and figure out what to do with them later.



#13 bmore_ken

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 06:07 PM

So I am pretty disappointed at this point. I do not believe the O's will upgrade with 2 starters better than him. If they do then fantastic but not holding my breath.

Agreed 100%



#14 dude

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 10:53 PM

They told us they weren't picking it up when they didn't tell us they were.

 

You spend a couple days looking for someone interested at the fixed price (save the 1M) and if it doesn't materialize, you buy it out.

 

You can add a bridge back to Means....but second tier stuff isn't better than the current options.

 

GRod

Bradish

TWells

Kremer

(Voth) to Hall

(Something) to Means.

 

If you want to trade for something better, there's a couple places to do it (Bieber, Burnes, Woodruff, Lopez), but they aren't buying at the top of the FA market and outside of someone like Manaea, most other guys don't make much sense.  They'll have more starters.  There's plenty of ways to add the other starts you'll need.

 

If you needed to trade 2 younger starters to gets something else done, great, bring back Lyles to bridge to another guy.  They didn't do that so that's telling us something.



#15 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 11:11 PM

Lyles was a 1.0 rWAR and 1.4 fWAR SP last year. People are reading too much into things. I think its simply a value thing. Os think they can either do better for 10 mil or can find a SP equal to Lyles for less money


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#16 russsnyder

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Posted 10 November 2022 - 04:27 AM

Good business move by the Orioles.

Also a good move to keep the window open to negotiate with Lyles.

I think moving the left field fence back along with having an emerging team makes the Orioles an attractive destination for FA pitchers.
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#17 JeremyStrain

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Posted 10 November 2022 - 08:36 AM

Lyles was a 1.0 rWAR and 1.4 fWAR SP last year. People are reading too much into things. I think its simply a value thing. Os think they can either do better for 10 mil or can find a SP equal to Lyles for less money


This is kinda where I am. I think they are planning on offering a SP a higher deal, and shaving this $10m lets them roll it into that. Like instead of adding a 2nd $10m value guy, they go offer someone $20m and Rodriguez has that other spot.


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#18 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 10 November 2022 - 08:42 AM


This is kinda where I am. I think they are planning on offering a SP a higher deal, and shaving this $10m lets them roll it into that. Like instead of adding a 2nd $10m value guy, they go offer someone $20m and Rodriguez has that other spot.

We also have to realize that we all believe we overpaid a bit on Lyles last year at 7 mil. He did his job and what we were expecting but that price now jumps to 10 mil. Nah, too rich. The fangraphs predictions could be wrong but you have some SPs that are clearly in a tier or two above Lyles that are going to get  14-16 mil a yr over 2 or 3 years. Much better to use the money for that.



#19 JeremyStrain

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Posted 10 November 2022 - 09:05 AM

We also have to realize that we all believe we overpaid a bit on Lyles last year at 7 mil. He did his job and what we were expecting but that price now jumps to 10 mil. Nah, too rich. The fangraphs predictions could be wrong but you have some SPs that are clearly in a tier or two above Lyles that are going to get  14-16 mil a yr over 2 or 3 years. Much better to use the money for that.


Even if they went in house, I'd much rather them take that $10m and put it towards extending Means.


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#20 Old Man

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Posted 10 November 2022 - 09:12 AM


Even if they went in house, I'd much rather them take that $10m and put it towards extending Means.

So if they dont extend Means, and dont sign anybody in that caliber, then what?






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