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BSL: An Overview of the Shortstop Free Agent Market


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#21 dude

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Posted 30 October 2022 - 03:02 PM

Arenado: The Cards have a pretty long history of the trade/extend approach (would be my approach too).  Maybe they re-work his deal, but I doubt they want him to leave and I doubt he wants to leave so I'd bet they work something out.  Maybe they just add a year or 2, something simple.

While Arenado's certainly a far safer play than Gorman/Walker in 2023, the duo is probably more valuable to them beyond next season. Not to say they'll outperform Arenado, but the combination of 3-4 WAR from them with $35MM+ to spend on a more glaring weakness seems obviously preferable.

 

Arenado reported to be staying put.  

 

My guess is they'll get something additional done after opt-out is officially complete....interesting thing about the deal is Rox still owe Cards ~31M as part of the original trade.  By not opting out, Colorado stays on the hook for that money.  

 

This action could be an indicator for something else too, we'll see.



#22 dude

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Posted 17 December 2022 - 08:13 PM

...lifted from Jordan's post in the Luke Warm Stove thread

 

Correa: 13/$350.00M/$26.92M AAV

Trea: 11/$300.00M/$27.27M AAV

Xander: 11/$280.00M/$25.45M AAV

Dansby: 7/$177.00M/$25.29M AAV

 

We can do some accounting on this in a minute (wrt this thread), but it's hyper interesting to see the change in the market.  With the crazy exceptions of Judge, Verlander and deGrom the predictions all had these guys getting 30+M top 3, not Swanson).

 

Top 3 traded total guarantee until age 40 and took the hit on AAV.  Many have postulated you had to do +AAV AND +YEARS to get things done but that's a difference in the market even from the recent signings of guys like Lindor, Seager and Semien.  mdrunning comments and it's likely true that this is a way to work around Lux Tax hits a little.  I don't know why some would suggest the League cares...MLB is a closed set of players and these guys are locking in their roster spots for a long time.  It hurts other players long-term, not the League.



#23 dude

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Posted 17 December 2022 - 08:23 PM

My thoughts on the players.

 

Turner: I don't see him leaving LAD.  Dodgers didn't want to keep Seager for whatever reasons, but they traded for Turner to mitigate that.  They've had more of the "trade for, sell, extend" approach and I see no reason why they wouldn't here.  Maybe he wants out of LA because he wants to wear his jewelry in public.  We'll see.

 

LAD are certainly an interesting case this winter.  We'll see what they do.  Some speculation they are trying to get under Lux Tax, reset their penalty again and then go big in next years market (Ohtani!)  Still waiting for some resolution on what (or if, I guess) they owe Bauer that disaster so TBD there.

 

I think everyone had the Phillies in the market for a big name.  Harper and Turner are apparently still close from their time in DC, he gives a lot of credit to current Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long who he was with in DC and his wife is from NJ.  Lot to draw in Philly and they were willing to put a crazy 11 year thing together (similar to what they did with Harper), so all of that makes a lot of sense.  



#24 dude

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Posted 17 December 2022 - 08:25 PM

My thoughts on the players.

 

Arenado: The Cards have a pretty long history of the trade/extend approach (would be my approach too).  Maybe they re-work his deal, but I doubt they want him to leave and I doubt he wants to leave so I'd bet they work something out.  Maybe they just add a year or 2, something simple.

 

Didn't opt out.  No additional contract either.  Both sides like where they are.  Good for both.



#25 dude

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Posted 17 December 2022 - 08:30 PM

My thoughts on the players.

 

Bogaerts: He's leaving Boston and it will be interesting to see how the RedSox handle this offseason.  My money would be on Philly.  They were already reportedly interested and this would be centered on the approach of Dombrowski and the desire of Middleton (that's why you hire Dombrowski).

 

With Turner in Philly, this couldn't be right.  Dodgers again interesting that they didn't seem to put any effort into an established SS.

 

SD is out of their minds this off-season.  Good for them and their fan-base.  In on everything.  I don't really like some of what I consider fit challenges, but we'll get to watch it all play out.

 

I saw somewhere that Manny was going to opt out of his deal next year.  Maybe Bogaerts is an insurance play there.  Manny bolts and you got a lower AAV to play with in Xander.

 

Padres stepping up and seem like favorites with Dodgers mostly on the sidelines.  Good times.



#26 dude

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Posted 17 December 2022 - 08:34 PM

Swanson: Again, don't really see him leaving the Braves.  They've put this group together, they can stay together for a while and I don't see him getting crazy money with his career .737 OPS on the market.  He has a lot of value.  I'd guess they do something in the 6/100 range.

 

Wrong here.

 

Personally I think the Cubs, Braves and Swanson will all hate this.

 

Braves are going to miss pieces of what he does.  Cubs paid him to be a hammer that he isn't and the Georgia kid is going to watch his former (and hometown) team go to the Playoffs without him.  Maybe they'll have cable on the extra island he can buy to watch.



#27 dude

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Posted 17 December 2022 - 08:38 PM

Correa: I question if anyone gives him 300M.  If they don't, what is he going to do?  There's no incentive to appease Boras at this point so we're back to the Boras market 4-5 years ago where Teams were more cautious.  

 

Wrong here.  Glad the Orioles didn't do it.

 

Well, he got his 350M plus the one year in MIN so from his perspective that's 14/386.  Got paid.

 

Giants will hate this and I laugh at them.



#28 makoman

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Posted 17 December 2022 - 08:43 PM

I saw somewhere that Manny was going to opt out of his deal next year.

This must be why the O's didn't do anything of note. Saving up to correct this error. 






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