My thoughts on the players.
Turner: I don't see him leaving LAD. Dodgers didn't want to keep Seager for whatever reasons, but they traded for Turner to mitigate that. They've had more of the "trade for, sell, extend" approach and I see no reason why they wouldn't here. Maybe he wants out of LA because he wants to wear his jewelry in public. We'll see.
Arenado: The Cards have a pretty long history of the trade/extend approach (would be my approach too). Maybe they re-work his deal, but I doubt they want him to leave and I doubt he wants to leave so I'd bet they work something out. Maybe they just add a year or 2, something simple.
Bogaerts: He's leaving Boston and it will be interesting to see how the RedSox handle this offseason. My money would be on Philly. They were already reportedly interested and this would be centered on the approach of Dombrowski and the desire of Middleton (that's why you hire Dombrowski).
Swanson: Again, don't really see him leaving the Braves. They've put this group together, they can stay together for a while and I don't see him getting crazy money with his career .737 OPS on the market. He has a lot of value. I'd guess they do something in the 6/100 range.
Correa: I question if anyone gives him 300M. If they don't, what is he going to do? There's no incentive to appease Boras at this point so we're back to the Boras market 4-5 years ago where Teams were more cautious.
Here's the other things working against (if you will) all of these guys. The SS depth across MLB is crazy right now. If the Phillies go after Bogaerts, then they can trade Stott. Stott may not be great, but if it's letting Stott figure it out of give 300M to Correa, that's an easy answer for me. If the Giants are aggressive away from Crawford, there's Lucinao. The Mets have Mauricio gathering dust. The Braves extend Swanson and they make Grissom available. The Reds have 3 SSs on the near-horizon. The Twins will turn it over to Lewis. The Yankees could go with a young guy and still trade another highly rated young guy. The Indians are deep in MI and could trade Rosario to put Giminez back at SS.
It's not really a question of would you rather have "Correa" or this young kid, it's whether you want to put 300M at risk versus seeing what happens with this young kid.
Just some of my own impressions to these expectations.
If the Dodgers were going to extend Turner, it would have happened. They must be targeting a different shortstop.
While Arenado's certainly a far safer play than Gorman/Walker in 2023, the duo is probably more valuable to them beyond next season. Not to say they'll outperform Arenado, but the combination of 3-4 WAR from them with $35MM+ to spend on a more glaring weakness seems obviously preferable.
Bogaerts... yea, I have no idea. I think a lot of teams will view him as a consolation prize which could work in some team's favor if they make him their top target. He certainly fits Philly's needs.
The Braves usually extend guys pre-market. They're going to go with Grissom/Albies. If Swanson costs $100MM, maybe that calculus changes because that's at least $80MM light.
Correa I think is the guy the Dodgers want instead of Turner.