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Prospect Trade Chip Tiers


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#1 BSLJordanKatz

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:08 AM

I thought this would be a fun way to assess how people value prospects. IMO there are four tiers for prospects being viewed as trade chips.

 

Untouchable (Self explanatory)

 

Only for a superstar (You'd only move them if Ohtani or someone was officially on the trade block)

 

For the right price (Not actively trying to get rid of them but pretty fine with moving them)

 

I'll help you pack (They're either surplus to needs or you're just not high on them as a prospect)

 

We could do this for the entire farm system but I'll make it easier and make it a smaller list of:

 

-Jackson Holliday

-Colton Cowser

-Jordan Westburg

-DL Hall

-Coby Mayo

-Kyle Stowers

-Heston Kjerstad

-Connor Norby

-Terrin Vavra

-Anyone besides Jackson from the 2022 class (Beavers, Wagner, Fabian, etc)

 

I am assuming there is universal agreement on Adley, Gunnar and Grayson being untouchable so there's no point even listing them


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#2 BSLJordanKatz

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:14 AM

At this point I think the list depends on if they make a splash for an infielder in free agency but just for fun, I will make this list based on the assumption they actually do for a Correa/Turner/etc

 

Untouchable: Hall

Superstar: Cowser, Holliday

For the right price: Stowers, Vavra, Mayo

Help you pack: Westburg, Norby, Kjerstad, rest of the 2022 class

 

I figure if they get an external option for the IF then Gunnar 3B/Mateo SS/Correa etc 2B with Urias and Vavra as depth options should be strong enough to make Norby/Westburg the big names in a deal for pitching   



#3 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 09:30 AM

Untouchable: Holliday
Superstar: Hall, Cowser
For the right price: pretty much everyone else
Help you pack: Prieto, Haskin

#4 Mike B

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 11:10 AM

Re: I am assuming there is universal agreement on Adley, Gunnar and Grayson being untouchable so there's no point even listing them

 

We paid a high price getting them to the majors.  Let's ride this group as far as they can take us. 


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#5 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 12:34 PM

Oh no youre not helping Norby pack

#6 BSLJordanKatz

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 12:41 PM

Oh no youre not helping Norby pack

Mateo and Gunnar should be locks to be on the roster next year and even if they don't add in free agency you've only got one spot between Urias, Vavra, Westburg and Norby for 2B so someone or someone(s) certainly seems like they'll need to move 



#7 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 12:51 PM

He isn’t even in at AAA yet, no need to rush to move him. Doesn’t hurt to have good depth either in case of injury or underperformance.

#8 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 12:56 PM

Especially when Vavra is a tier above. No way. Oh and Prieto is AAAA fodder

#9 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 10:03 PM

Gunnar and GRod are untouchable. Id be willing to trade anyone else in the right deal. The guys with value who could potentially headline a trade that Im more inclined to move are Hall, Westburg, Mayo, and Stowers. Guys Id prefer to keep even though they arent Top 100 guys are Norby, Ortiz, Beavers.
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#10 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 10:10 PM

Here you go Phelan. Rank in order of preference to keep

Norby
Ortiz
Westburg
Hernaiz
Mayo



I know youll likely have Mayo 1 and I understand why. Almost didnt include him. However, his K rate and bat to ball skills concern me. As well as his defense. Will he stick at 3b?? Know thats been asked before but how has the defense been this year.

#11 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 10:24 PM

Here you go Phelan. Rank in order of preference to keep

Norby
Ortiz
Westburg
Hernaiz
Mayo



I know youll likely have Mayo 1 and I understand why. Almost didnt include him. However, his K rate and bat to ball skills concern me. As well as his defense. Will he stick at 3b?? Know thats been asked before but how has the defense been this year.

1. Mayo
2. Norby
3. Ortiz
4. Westburg
5. Hernaiz

No slight to anyone, I’m high on all of them.

Remember, Mayo is 20 years old for three more months and will have around 150 plate appearances at AA. Underlying numbers are much better than the raw stats. Team is high on him. You could trade him but it has to be a blockbuster. He could easily be next year’s Gunnar Henderson. And yes, he can stick at third base but he won’t be as strong as Gunnar. Let his arm eat out in RF. Waltimore is not an issue for him.

#12 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 10:26 PM

Ok Phelan one more. You can have 1 OF in the minors not named Beavers, Fabian, Kjerstad or  COwser. Who you taking??



#13 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 10:28 PM

Also where would you have Bencosme on the above INF list. Behind Hernaiz??



#14 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 10:30 PM

Bencosme slightly behind Hernaiz.

OF - John Rhodes. Very underrated, just hasn’t been able to stay healthy this season and get a consistent string going the last few months.

#15 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 10:32 PM

IM assuming youre taking Fabian over Rhodes??



#16 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 10:36 PM

1. Mayo
2. Norby
3. Ortiz
4. Westburg
5. Hernaiz

No slight to anyone, I’m high on all of them.

Remember, Mayo is 20 years old for three more months and will have around 150 plate appearances at AA. Underlying numbers are much better than the raw stats. Team is high on him. You could trade him but it has to be a blockbuster. He could easily be next year’s Gunnar Henderson. And yes, he can stick at third base but he won’t be as strong as Gunnar. Let his arm eat out in RF. Waltimore is not an issue for him.

So obviously Westburg has been solid if unspectacular in becoming a Top 100 guy. Why him 4th here. I dont know that I disagree BTW. To play devils advocate his bat has produced better than Ortiz or Norby and he has the versatility to play everywhere.



#17 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 11:03 PM

IM assuming youre taking Fabian over Rhodes??


Yeah I think so at this point.

#18 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 05 September 2022 - 11:04 PM

So obviously Westburg has been solid if unspectacular in becoming a Top 100 guy. Why him 4th here. I dont know that I disagree BTW. To play devils advocate his bat has produced better than Ortiz or Norby and he has the versatility to play everywhere.


I rank Westburg higher than those two but as far as who I would keep vs trade I just like Norby’s bat better and Ortiz’s glove better. It’s nitpicking tho.

#19 Mackus

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Posted 06 September 2022 - 09:18 AM

Tier 1: Very top handful of prospects in all of MLB

Henderson and Rodriguez

Tier 2: Next 10-30 guys in all of MLB

Holliday

Tier 3: Most of the rest of the MLB top-100

Cowser, Hall, Mayo, Westburg

Tier 4: The next 100-150 guys in MLB, top-10 or so guys in most orgs

Stowers, Kjerstad, Norby, Johnson, Beavers

Tier 5: The next 200-300 guys in MLB, top-20 or so guys in most orgs

Povich, Vavra and everybody else that we mostly are aware of

Tier 6: Next 300-500 guys, top-30 or so in most orgs

Tier 7: Next 500-1000 guys, very youthful guys or deep depth that needs to pop to become more relevant

 

I strongly dislike the idea of anyone being untouchable and I think its kind of purposeless to identify guys are someone you'd trade only for a certain return.  That's either something that goes without saying or something that is true of every trade.  Doesn't identify anything tangible.


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#20 dude

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Posted 06 September 2022 - 01:28 PM

My opinion is this is the wrong way to look at it.

 

The goal is to win games, not hold onto names.  So I only care about who I think is part of that winning team.  If I can move externally to do something, then that's 'the plan'.  Everyone externally isn't available so I'm not dreaming on others rosters.  Cost of AvailabilityTM is core to this.

 

People typically get bent over saying to have a plan.  You start somewhere, it's never blank.  You have to know where you are, where you want to be and how to get there.

 

Before this season I would have lined up IF options like Westburg/2B, Henderson/SS and Mayo/3B.  Today I'd modify that.  I'm most tempted by Henderson/3B, Mateo to Holliday/SS and Westburg/2B.  I'd begin to look at Mayo at 1B or as a trade chip.

 

No matter how you tier guys (or any strategy for aligning these guys), the roster rules (40/26/options) eventually come get you.  No matter what you think of your guys, those are the rules, so you have to be pro-active (regardless of tiering) in managing the overall roster.

 

If you lack relationships and have a lot of stuff, teams will ask you to over-pay, especially when you've been a team that wants to get overpaid for things.

 

I can be talked into different things (improving Talent at a position) but largely, I'm ok with the opportunity for winning for the future.  It's not unique, but it was never going to be unique, whatever you think you want to do it won't be unique. It's not the roster that I think undermines things at this point.






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