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BSL: Top 50 Prospects August 2022


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#1 BSLNickStevens

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 10:48 AM

BSL: Top 50 Prospects August 2022

https://baltimorespo...ts-august-2022/


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#2 Mike B

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 11:16 AM

BSL: Top 50 Prospects August 2022

https://baltimorespo...ts-august-2022/

Good stuff and it looks like a really good list.  We should see a number of exciting debuts, through next year.


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#3 glenn__davis

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 11:27 AM

Seems way too low on Ortiz for me. We'll see if he keeps hitting.
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#4 Mackus

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 12:05 PM

Good stuff!

 

A couple questions comments...

 

Where do you think the cutoff lines for different tiers would be?

 

How would you compare Mayo's arm to Manny's at 3B?  Equal?

 

For Basallo, you mention if he can't stick at C he becomes a 1B prospect and bat will need to play more. Is there no hope for a less dramatic slide down the defensive spectrum?  3B or corner OF?

 

For McDermott, why shouldn't we harp on his age/level?  I've always felt that's as important as any other single thing.  And we harped on it positively for lots of other guys like Henderson, Mayo, Rom, Bassallo, Pinto, and others.  If being younger than your peers is a good thing (it is) then being older than them has gotta be a similarly strong factor.  Losing a year to Covid changes some things for everybody for this whole generation of prospects, so it will be interesting to see how strongly the age/level influences are altered.  But McDermott only had his sophomore year truncated in 2020, which seems less of an influence to me than comparing to guys who lost a year of development professionally.  He was drafted as a 22 y/o and now hasn't earned a promotion during an Age-23 season at A+.

 

Rojas not in the top-50?  


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#5 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 02:07 PM

Good stuff!

A couple questions comments...

Where do you think the cutoff lines for different tiers would be?

How would you compare Mayo's arm to Manny's at 3B? Equal?

For Basallo, you mention if he can't stick at C he becomes a 1B prospect and bat will need to play more. Is there no hope for a less dramatic slide down the defensive spectrum? 3B or corner OF?

For McDermott, why shouldn't we harp on his age/level? I've always felt that's as important as any other single thing. And we harped on it positively for lots of other guys like Henderson, Mayo, Rom, Bassallo, Pinto, and others. If being younger than your peers is a good thing (it is) then being older than them has gotta be a similarly strong factor. Losing a year to Covid changes some things for everybody for this whole generation of prospects, so it will be interesting to see how strongly the age/level influences are altered. But McDermott only had his sophomore year truncated in 2020, which seems less of an influence to me than comparing to guys who lost a year of development professionally. He was drafted as a 22 y/o and now hasn't earned a promotion during an Age-23 season at A+.

Rojas not in the top-50?

I’ll take more time to put them into tiers in a separate post (only speaking for myself.

Mayo’s arm is huge, I was never down close on a minor league field for Manny but I’m sure they would both elicit a “whoa” when they really let it go.

Basallo - Third base I can’t see but maybe corner outfield. He has a huge arm as well just not sure how well he’ll move in a few years and potentially more growth. He’s been playing C/1B/DH in the FCL this season.

McDermott - He was only drafted last year so while he is a little older than you’d want he’s not out of line when it comes to the Orioles typical progression out of the draft. He should be able to catch up to make his ML debut at 25 if everything goes well.

Just need more information on Rojas. No video feed in the FCL but I would think once he hits Delmarva and we get eyes on him then we’ll feel more confident putting him on a list like this.
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#6 BSLJordanKatz

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 04:07 PM

So #11, #17 and #29 from the deadline deals


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#7 Mackus

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 04:20 PM

Johnson at #11 seems to reflect an opinion that the Tommy John surgery is primarily a delay and he's likely to return to prior effectiveness after his return.  The BSL rankings have been consistent in that, as Baumler held his ranking when he had the surgery following the 2020 season, through not playing in 2021, and now that he's returned.

 

I'm definitely on board with his profile being deserving of #11, perhaps even as high as #9, IMO.  I think Tommy John is a pretty big deal, though, and that the uncertainty of his recovery has to lower his overall projection to a fairly substantial degree.  I have a hard time putting him ahead of Rom and Povich given the injury, but fully aware that I may be a lot more pessimistic on the recovery from this procedure than others.  It doesn't lower his upside, guys can make a full and complete recovery. But since the rate of returning as good as before the injury is well below 100%, I think it effectively increases his volatility, so I'd reduce the expectation for Johnson similarly, and I think that knocks him down to a lower tier.


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#8 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 04:35 PM

Tiers:

 

Gunnar Henderson

Grayson Rodriguez

 

Jackson Holliday

 

DL Hall

Colton Cowser

Coby Mayo

Jordan Westburg

Kyle Stowers

 

Heston Kjerstad

Dylan Beavers

Seth Johnson

Connor Norby

Terrin Vavra

Cesar Prieto
Drew Rom

Hudson Haskin

Cade Povich

 

18-30

 

30-50+

 

Something like that.


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#9 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 05:31 PM

No discussion to be had on protecting Ortiz.
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#10 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 05:43 PM

Im also not understanding why Wagner is so much lower than Fabian and Beavers.

#11 Mackus

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 05:50 PM

Tiers:

 

I think I'd have it exactly the same way except I think Holliday is on his own Tier between Rodriguez/Henderson and the rest of the top-100 caliber guys.


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#12 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 05:53 PM


I think I'd have it exactly the same way except I think Holliday is on his own Tier between Rodriguez/Henderson and the rest of the top-100 caliber guys.

Yeah Im not putting him in the Gunnar/GRod group yet. Earn that. Its why I'll almost always be lower on Int guys than most initially. Prove something first. DSL and FSL doesnt mean much of anything to me.
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#13 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 06:10 PM

You know what, you guys are right. Updated.



#14 Mackus

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 06:16 PM

With a strong finish at A+ Kjerstad could have moved up a tier but he's really struggled so far. I know it's a hitters park, but low 600s is bad. Next year is huge for him, he will there gets back on track and moves up or starts heading down the list precipitously.
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#15 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 07:30 PM

I think Vavra can be moved up.


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#16 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 08:35 PM

With a strong finish at A+ Kjerstad could have moved up a tier but he's really struggled so far. I know it's a hitters park, but low 600s is bad. Next year is huge for him, he will there gets back on track and moves up or starts heading down the list precipitously.

 

Reports are that he looks comfortable and is having the most professional at bats on the team right now despite the struggles but obviously would like to see him do more down the stretch. Start at Bowie next year and go from there.



#17 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 08:37 PM

Next year is the test for Kjerstad. Not really worried about the next few weeks. Not sure about starting in Bowie though


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#18 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 08:43 PM

Next year is the test for Kjerstad. Not really worried about the next few weeks. Not sure about starting in Bowie though

 

I think its a "probability" that he starts in Bowie. Not a lock but I would bet on it.



#19 Slidemaster

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Posted 10 August 2022 - 10:04 PM

I think there's a fairly high chance Kjerstad gets traded in the offseason.

Or not. But he's someone who feels like he could be turned into another asset.

#20 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 10 August 2022 - 10:18 PM

It would likely be selling low on Kjerstad. 


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