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Gunnar Henderson is BA's #1 Prospect


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#41 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:27 PM

Yeah I cant say power when his ISO is .250 something combined at AA/AAA. Maybe strikeouts could become an issue at the ML level. 23% in AAA but the BB rate is still great too
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#42 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:27 PM


Nickle complains a lot less these days. Weird.

Eventually you grow the F up. For the most part.

#43 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:31 PM


Eventually you grow the F up. For the most part.

That’s encouraging. I have hope!

“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

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#44 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:36 PM

Eventually you grow the F up. For the most part.


Please tell me you still get mad when a Euro is in contention at the US open. I need this.
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#45 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 August 2022 - 08:39 PM


Please tell me you still get mad when a Euro is in contention at the US open. I need this.

Go look at the golf thread my dude

#46 McNulty

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 02:19 AM

Nickle complains a lot less these days. Weird.


Does chicken nickle post here?

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#47 BSLBradJohnson

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Posted 09 August 2022 - 09:42 AM

This is something that came to me when Fangraphs started writing articles about prospect valuations. The main takeaway is that being a number 1 draft pick is miles different from being rated a #1 prospect. Obviously the caveat here is that BA is only one publication, but they tend to represent a decent consensus most of the time and they've gotten pretty good at being able to project top talent once they hit pro ball. If they say that a prospect is a 70 or 80, then chances are he's going to perform like one unless he gets hurt.

 

fwiw, I was told their only 70s are Chourio and Lawlar. Must have been some internal disagreement about Lawlar though since he isn't ranked 3. Proximity is something they consider which is why Henderson (60) ranked over Chourio.



#48 hallas

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Posted 10 August 2022 - 03:46 PM

fwiw, I was told their only 70s are Chourio and Lawlar. Must have been some internal disagreement about Lawlar though since he isn't ranked 3. Proximity is something they consider which is why Henderson (60) ranked over Chourio.

 

Is this Fangraphs or BA?  I would consider giving a 70 to Chourio because he's holding his own in A+ as an 18 year old, but I'm a bit more confused about Lawlar.  I'm even more confused about Henderson not at least getting a 65 grade.  His ZIPS projection puts him easily in the 65 category with an ok argument for 70.  I'm wondering if they haven't updated the FV grade midseason, although that would be weird.



#49 BSLBradJohnson

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Posted 12 August 2022 - 11:09 AM

^BA. I try not to bother Longenhagen, I know he's overworked. The FG prospect team just isn't anywhere near as large as the other outlets. They do great work, but they can't be expected to stay on top of all the grades.

 

Henderson probably would be a 65. We were talking 50/60/70 prospects. Not everybody uses the 5s.



#50 hallas

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Posted 12 August 2022 - 04:38 PM

^BA. I try not to bother Longenhagen, I know he's overworked. The FG prospect team just isn't anywhere near as large as the other outlets. They do great work, but they can't be expected to stay on top of all the grades.

 

Henderson probably would be a 65. We were talking 50/60/70 prospects. Not everybody uses the 5s.

 

He seems closer to 70 than he is to 60.  But maybe they prefer you clear the bar rather than just meet it.  There was a discussion about prospect grading compression.  Only like 1.5% of players get a 70 or higher, even though 5% of players should be if we're following the 1/2/3 stdev rule for 60/70/80.


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#51 Possibly Keith Hernandez

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Posted 14 August 2022 - 11:46 PM

Gunnar hit an absolute bomb today for the Tides.  His strikeouts are up in AAA, but it's also tough to assess those raw numbers in some respects due to minor league umpires.  It's encouraging that the Orioles FO has more data about swing decisions compared to the K/BB numbers.  But you have to be encouraged by his performance this year, and quite frankly, the Orioles player development team.  Which is weird, because they have been awful for generations pre-Elias.


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