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Jud Fabian


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 07:54 AM

Florida, OF

 

MLB.com: 

 

After graduating from high school early to enroll at the University of Florida in time for the 2019 collegiate season, Fabian struggled initially as a freshman, though he put that in his rearview mirror with a strong Cape Cod League performance that summer. He showed off his power in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and again in 2021, albeit with some swing-and-miss, leading to him being selected in the second round of the Draft by the Red Sox. He opted to return to the Gators for another season when he and the team could not come to terms. Fabian brings the same offensive upside from the right side of the plate with him into the 2022 Draft. He’s answered a lot of questions but cutting his strikeout rate this spring (25.4 percent in his Florida career heading into 2022), and his bat speed and the power generated from it are legit, producing 20 home runs a year ago. He’s shown this year he is capable of making more consistent contact while not sacrificing power to help convince teams it will work at the next level. Fabian doesn’t have blazing speed, but his above-average wheels along with his excellent instincts, reads and routes point to a long-term future in center field. Because of his decision to leave high school early, Fabian still is age appropriate and will be 21 at the Draft, still with an upside to be an up-the-middle impact bat if he can continue to cut the whiff rate.



#2 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 07:56 AM

Royals Review: Better know a draft prospect: Jud Fabian

https://www.royalsre...pect-jud-fabian



#3 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 07:57 AM

Law:

 

2022 MLB Draft Top 100 prospects: Keith Law’s final rankings ahead of Round 1 - The Athletic

 

47. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida

Fabian turned down over $2 million from the Red Sox, who took him in the second round last year, but in so doing gave up one of his big advantages from last year’s draft — his youth, as he didn’t turn 21 until last September. In 2021, he was among the leaders in Division 1 with 79 strikeouts in 59 games, and hit just .249, unusually low for a top prospect, even in the SEC. He struggled badly on fastballs up and sliders down and away, showing little willingness to make in-season adjustments. He’s laying off more of those sliders when they’re out of the zone now, and those better swing decisions have helped cut his strikeout rate significantly from last year, although those vulnerabilities are both still there and his average was below .250 as the SEC season was ending. He offers plus defense in center along with plus power, enough that he should go a little higher than he did last year, but as a fourth-year college player who’ll be 22 a month after the draft, his leverage is much lower this time around.



#4 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 07:57 AM

How Florida’s Jud Fabian fixed his strikeout rate before the MLB Draft - The Athletic



#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 07:57 AM



#6 BSLJordanKatz

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 08:05 AM

Had more walks than hits this year which is one hell of an approach at the plate



#7 BSLBradJohnson

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 08:24 AM

Honestly, later than I thought he'd go - though I haven't closely monitored the draft market in the last few months.



#8 Mackus

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:00 AM

Slot for this pick is $1.026M so that's about half of what he turned down last year.  Will be interesting to see if this is where any pool savings go or if he has to come down from the money he got last season now that he has less leverage.  Not zero leverage though, as he's still only a junior and could return to school, albeit a nearly 22 y/o junior who would be re-entering his third draft about to turn 23 y/o.



#9 Mackus

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:02 AM

This is the pick we got for Sulser and Scott.  They've been fine in Miami, but certainly haven't been missed here yet.



#10 Mike B

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:04 AM

There clearly, at least to me, another strategy unfolding.  All the picks are LH hitters.  The past drafts have been more left handed too.  They built the mountain in left field, but RF remains a hitters advantage and it looks like we are working on a homefield advantage.


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#11 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:04 AM


This is the pick we got for Sulser and Scott. They've been fine in Miami, but certainly haven't been missed here yet.

It was a terrific trade and while the players we got back likely arent going to amount to anything that book hasnt been completely closed. 1 was very young.

#12 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:05 AM


Slot for this pick is $1.026M so that's about half of what he turned down last year. Will be interesting to see if this is where any pool savings go or if he has to come down from the money he got last season now that he has less leverage. Not zero leverage though, as he's still only a junior and could return to school, albeit a nearly 22 y/o junior who would be re-entering his third draft about to turn 23 y/o.

Have to think he is slot. Very little leverage.

#13 Mackus

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:05 AM

There clearly, at least to me, another strategy unfolding.  All the picks are LH hitters.  The past drafts have been more left handed too.  They built the mountain in left field, but RF remains a hitters advantage and it looks like we are working on a homefield advantage.

 

Agree that this pattern is showing up, but only the first two picks were lefties so far this year.  Wagner and Fabian are right-handed hitters.



#14 Mackus

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:07 AM

Have to think he is slot. Very little leverage.

 

Pretty much the same leverage he had last year, when he turned down a deal.  If he only takes slot that'd be great, more to throw around later.



#15 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:14 AM


Pretty much the same leverage he had last year, when he turned down a deal. If he only takes slot that'd be great, more to throw around later.

He might be over but I mean he kinda is what he is now. I think teams know that. Not getting younger. Is there really any way he raises his stock??

#16 Mike B

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:16 AM

I still hate the Orioles threw away 3 or 4 baseball seasons, but it is clear Elias has remained steadfast in the way he has worked his plan.  I think it was far more detailed than any of us anticipated, from building the academy all the way through changing Camden Yards.  His drafts have been designed to take advantage of as many of the controllable aspects as possible.

I wonder if we are designing a state of the art pitching machine which will eliminate the pitching position?   :-P


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#17 Mike B

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:18 AM

Agree that this pattern is showing up, but only the first two picks were lefties so far this year.  Wagner and Fabian are right-handed hitters.

My bad...I misread the breakdown.


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#18 dude

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:23 AM

 

...so 2 strikeouts and a pop up?



#19 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:27 AM



#20 Mike B

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 11:05 AM

Law:

 

2022 MLB Draft Top 100 prospects: Keith Law’s final rankings ahead of Round 1 - The Athletic

The Orioles clearly like Fabian more than Law does.  They wanted him last year and got him this year.  Probably for a little less $$$.


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