1202 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Boomer Esiason said something after the CIncinnati win today that made sense. He said the Bengals need to go win that championship this year because some of these guys aren't going to be here next year after Joe Burrow gets paid. In other words, the window may still be open, but this is the widest it is ever going to be. Could apply to Baltimore as well.

He can get paid but his cap hit won't skyrocket until Year 5 and more likely 6. Likely will be set up where the 2023 hit is only a few million more than if he doesn't extend. And same for Chase's eventual deal that surpasses whatever Jefferson is about to get.

[cprenegade]

Burrow is right. There is always a window when he is the Qb

 

Agreed.  He is that good.  I sometimes think he carries a bit of a chip on his shoulder because the conversation is always about Mahomes and Allen.  Burrow gets relegated to being slotted third.  I think maybe the media needs to re-evaluate that.  Josh Allen slipped back into some bad habits toward the end of the season.  

 

But I also think Esiason is right.  You can't pay all of the playmakers the Bengals have after Burrow gets his contract.  And your depth especially will take a hit.  You need to hope you can draft your way into replacing guys who are going to be able to get bigger contracts somewhere else.  Burrow is good enough to raise everyone around him up, but this is probably the best team he is ever going to have around him.  

[cprenegade]

He can get paid but his cap hit won't skyrocket until Year 5 and more likely 6. Likely will be set up where the 2023 hit is only a few million more than if he doesn't extend. And same for Chase's eventual deal that surpasses whatever Jefferson is about to get.

 

True, the way it's structured makes some difference, but it is still juggling to a degree.  You get to a point where you perpetually have little cap room to add bigger pieces.  KC is finding that out.  No way they wanted to part with Hill in that offense they run.  You can still pay most of your starting team, but your depth is going to be dependent mostly on rookies and a big drop-off if you have injuries.  And every team has injuries.  

 

You can't let Burrow go, you aren't getting a QB that can read defenses and make the throws he does very easy in the draft.  But once he starts taking up more of a pct. of the cap, certain sacrifices need to be made.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Agreed. He is that good. I sometimes think he carries a bit of a chip on his shoulder because the conversation is always about Mahomes and Allen. Burrow gets relegated to being slotted third. I think maybe the media needs to re-evaluate that. Josh Allen slipped back into some bad habits toward the end of the season.

But I also think Esiason is right. You can't pay all of the playmakers the Bengals have after Burrow gets his contract. And your depth especially will take a hit. You need to hope you can draft your way into replacing guys who are going to be able to get bigger contracts somewhere else. Burrow is good enough to raise everyone around him up, but this is probably the best team he is ever going to have around him.

Burrow and Mahomes are the new Brady and Manning. There is a different tier below them

[mdrunning]

Elijah Mitchell needed to stay inbounds after that 13-yard carry. Huge mental mistake.

[Slidemaster]

When Drew Brees turned 30 years old, his playoff record was 1-2. What's that mean?

Do you expect Lamar to age like Brees? Are they comparable in literally any way?

[mdrunning]

Niners and Eagles for the NFC championship next week, which is a first. In fact, the only other postseason meeting between the two was in the wildcard round on December 29, 1996.

[Ravens2006]

Do you expect Lamar to age like Brees? Are they comparable in literally any way?

No, of course not. You can't possibly compare them in any way. While not comparing them in any way...

Lamar at 25 years old was 45-16, 1-3 in playoffs (with a bye week we ignore, which is the league giving you a win), complete 63.7% with 101 TDs vs 38 INTs, 7.4 yards per attempt, 11.6 yards per completion... and 4400 rushing yards with 24 rushing TDs.

At 26, Brees was 30-28, 0-1 in playoffs, 62.2% completion, 80 TDs vs 53 INTs, 6.8 yards per attempt, 11.0 yards per completion... and 366 rushing yards with 4 rushing TDs.

We have no real idea how Lamar will age. Brees tore a labrum in a season finale so he didn't miss time really since the off-season awaited. Time will tell whether Lamar's injuries are the start of long term problems, or an unlucky break. Would be nice to see how it goes with a new training staff helping him and ALL Ravens recover from injuries (Judon and Wolfe have both roasted the guy in the last year, John sits idly by supporting his hire).

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Do you expect Lamar to age like Brees? Are they comparable in literally any way?

How many Burrow- Mahomes matchups we getting the next 10 years homie. I would assume a lot has to be 5 at least. I mean a lot is a lot.

[Slidemaster]

How many Burrow- Mahomes matchups we getting the next 10 years homie. I would assume a lot has to be 5 at least. I mean a lot is a lot.

I think the bare minimum is 4, unless injuries derail one of their careers. On the high end I think it could be 6-7. To me they are without a doubt the two best QBs in the AFC and I dont think it's close.

We already have 2 in 2 years. Mahomes is in his 5th straight.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If you are including the last two years, which you shouldnt because you said the next 10 years,then 2 more is possible over the next 8 years. But Id still bet against it. Especially specifically the championship round. If we were talking just meeting in the playoffs in general thats much more of something thats possible

[Slidemaster]

If you are including the last two years, which you shouldnt because you said the next 10 years,then 2 more is possible over the next 8 years. But Id still bet against it. Especially specifically the championship round. If we were talking just meeting in the playoffs in general thats much more of something thats possible

I'm not including them. I just don't see a better bet for a matchup in the AFC championship game for the foreseeable future. Anything can happen, but Burrow and Mahomes are generational QBs and they tend to meet in big games a lot.

[cprenegade]

I could see Burrow-Mahomes matching up a number of times, but I don't think you can count out Josh Allen and Buffalo.  I think the Bills could crash that party.  And I also think that the Chargers and Jacksonville could be teams to reckon with.  

 

Buffalo was hard to figure out this season.  Before the season I thought they were on a mission.  They certainly started the season that way.  But then they played a number of games where it just looked like they weren't focused.  They also had some obvious distractions.  They lost a home game to a record snowstorm, and of course the Hamlin injury.  I suspect they will be back.  

 

Seems like Stephon Diggs had a little meltdown.  He was yelling at Josh Allen on the sidelines then supposedly got all of his stuff and left the locker room before the rest of the team and coaching staff were even in there.  Not a good look.  Another really talented diva.  

[Bmore Irish]

Burrow and the Bengals were also dangerously close to going home in the WC round courtesy of a Huntley-led Ravens team in the middle of a crisis of offensive ineptitude.

 

The Bengals played really well today, and the Bills played equally as poorly. The Bengals will be contenders every season, but we'll see whether they're a Chiefs-Reid-Mahomes level dynasty.

 

The AFC looks like it could be pretty stacked for a while.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I could see Burrow-Mahomes matching up a number of times, but I don't think you can count out Josh Allen and Buffalo. I think the Bills could crash that party. And I also think that the Chargers and Jacksonville could be teams to reckon with.

Buffalo was hard to figure out this season. Before the season I thought they were on a mission. They certainly started the season that way. But then they played a number of games where it just looked like they weren't focused. They also had some obvious distractions. They lost a home game to a record snowstorm, and of course the Hamlin injury. I suspect they will be back.

Seems like Stephon Diggs had a little meltdown. He was yelling at Josh Allen on the sidelines then supposedly got all of his stuff and left the locker room before the rest of the team and coaching staff were even in there. Not a good look. Another really talented diva.

I just think football is a 1 shot deal. Win or go home. On top of that officating can be random. Could throw a flag a lot. A lot of subjectivity. Just a lot of variance. I think a good to very good team is always going to win the SB but when you down to the final say 5 -7 teams its truly any of them could win on any given Sunday.

[cprenegade]

Burrow and the Bengals were also dangerously close to going home in the WC round courtesy of a Huntley-led Ravens team in the middle of a crisis of offensive ineptitude.

 

The Bengals played really well today, and the Bills played equally as poorly. The Bengals will be contenders every season, but we'll see whether they're a Chiefs-Reid-Mahomes level dynasty.

 

The AFC looks like it could be pretty stacked for a while.

 

We see that happen a lot in every sport.  How many college basketball teams survive a last second two point victory early on in the tournament before going on to win the whole thing.  Baltimore had an advantage with the Bengals that the Bills didn't, they play them every year, twice a year.  But Buffalo did play poorly today.  And in reality, they didn't play all that well last week when they themselves almost went home courtesy of a Skylar Moore led Miami team.  They survived last week just like Cincinnati did last week also.  

[cprenegade]

I just think football is a 1 shot deal. Win or go home. On top of that officating can be random almost right. Could throw a flag a lot. A lot of subjectivity. Just a lot of variance. I think a good to very good team is always going to win the SB but when you down to the final say 5 -7 teams its truly any of them could win on any given Sunday.

 

I agree.  A couple of years ago the Rams went to the SB instead of the Saints because of a huge no call on PI.  Good teams usually rise to the top, but other factors play a big role in which of those teams ends up on top.

[Steve55]

He can get paid but his cap hit won't skyrocket until Year 5 and more likely 6. Likely will be set up where the 2023 hit is only a few million more than if he doesn't extend. And same for Chase's eventual deal that surpasses whatever Jefferson is about to get.

 

 

What if he asks for $50 mil a yr guaranteed .?

[Slidemaster]

What if he asks for $50 mil a yr guaranteed .?

I'd sign Burrow for that without breaking a sweat. He is That Guy to me. Likely going to win at least 2 SBs unless injuries derail him.

[Mackus]

What if he asks for $50 mil a yr guaranteed .?

 

Cap hits don't change depending on if money is guaranteed or not.

 

He can sign the biggest deal ever and still only count about the same $11-12M he's due to count against the cap next year already on his current deal.  My guess would be that they have it go up to somewhere in the $15M range.  Deals are backloaded, and his new salaries won't begin until after his rookie deal is over (including 5th year option) in 2025.  

 

After Allen signed his similarly huge deal, he only counted $10M against the cap in 2021 and $16M in 2022. 

 

If the Ravens sign Lamar, his 2023 cap hit will probably be about $25M, nowhere close to the $45-50M APY of the deal.  Roquan's deal next year will only be $9M against the cap, even though its a 5/$100M deal.