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Lamar - Extension?


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#4641 Mackus

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 10:18 AM


I mean some things are debatable. But you can't say the guaranteed contract is the same as a non guaranteed contract and claim he's not signed because he wants a guaranteed contract. Feel free to make his stance make sense :mrgreen:


I didn't say that.

#4642 bmore_ken

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 10:21 AM

You're not reading what I'm saying. I'm not saying they are the same contracts for Lamar or the Ravens. They are the same for the cap. The cap doesn't treat guaranteed money any differently than non-guaranteed money.

Good grief. :rolleyes:



#4643 bmore_ken

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 10:22 AM

I didn't say that.

You're not but everyone else here is. Perhaps you know more than the rest of us and DeCosta



#4644 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 10:40 AM

I can't get to the point of thinking it was a smart choice yet. Still a lot more risk of an awful result than I'm comfortable taking on.

I will agree that it's looking good so far and very quiet compared to what I would've expected. But the timing of losing him for peanuts is irrelevant, the avoidance of it is essential. I'll be very happy if it works out and he returns, even if it's only on the tag for the season, that's a fine result. Still think the normal tag increased the chances of him leaving while decreasing the return compared to the exclusive, but that take still involves a path to it working out just fine.

 

If suitors aren't beating down the door to offer Lamar when the cap hit is less, and the compensation would supposedly be less... there isn't a lot of reason to think there would be more suitors with a higher cap hit, who were then also going to be willing to send more compensation back to the Ravens.

He's available. 

If teams should be comfortable with giving up 2 First Rounders + giving him the contract he's seeking; then the offers should be pouring in. 

Maybe we will get there, and the Ravens will have multiple offers to look at. 

That would be ideal to me. 

It would kind of suck if there isn't much interest in Jackson imo. 

 

Not a great situation imo to have Jackson play on the cap (not sure he'd sign it anyway before he had to), and if there is minimal external interest in obtaining him...  not sure the Ravens should bid against themselves with their existing offer which Jackson deemed not good enough to begin with.



#4645 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 10:46 AM

I think the Colts give him a massive offer once the draft ends -- they don't want to give us the 4th pick.


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#4646 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 10:51 AM

I think the Colts give him a massive offer once the draft ends -- they don't want to give us the 4th pick.


But then they have to give him a deal the Ravens can't match. 
If they want him so bad, why risk that?  Just include the 4th pick now, which compensation wise (plus with the contract impasse) the Ravens probably wouldn't turn down?



#4647 makoman

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 10:56 AM

I think the Colts give him a massive offer once the draft ends -- they don't want to give us the 4th pick.

 

 

That's easier said than done though. They have 20M in cap space right now. And maybe they restructure everyone and can create 40M more, ignoring needs for the draft and season. Or maybe they cut Deforest Buckner to get a little bit more, which would suck for them. The Ravens are already using 32.4M on Lamar and can easily restructure 27M more. They could get more in a more difficult way, if they add void years to the restructures, but I imagine they'd rather not. The Ravens have pretty much planned to be capable of matching anything if they decide they want to.

It would suck to do all those things to get your offer in just for the Ravens to match. Now you have 60M in cap space with nobody left out there to sign, pretty risky, pretty much blows up your year. Plus you didn't draft a QB at 4 because you were planning on Lamar.



#4648 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 10:57 AM


But then they have to give him a deal the Ravens can't match. 
If they want him so bad, why risk that?  Just include the 4th pick now, which compensation wise (plus with the contract impasse) the Ravens probably wouldn't turn down?

 

I don't think they want him so bad that they'll risk losing the 4th overall pick.  Nobody is doing anything, they can be patient at this point.


There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

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"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

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#4649 mdrunning

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 11:21 AM

I think the Colts give him a massive offer once the draft ends -- they don't want to give us the 4th pick.

I'm not sure how valuable that fourth pick is to them, however, since they likely won't land either Young or Stroud. The Colts are supposedly not very high on either Levis or Richardson, but that remains to be seen. Either way, the Panthers leapfrogging up to No. 1 completely changed the dynamic of the draft, at least in terms of the first several picks.



#4650 bmore_ken

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 11:37 AM

I think the Colts give him a massive offer once the draft ends -- they don't want to give us the 4th pick.

I think you're wrong, but we'll see



#4651 mdrunning

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 11:57 AM

You're not reading what I'm saying. I'm not saying they are the same contracts for Lamar or the Ravens. They are the same for the cap. The cap doesn't treat guaranteed money any differently than non-guaranteed money.

That would apply to money that is fully guaranteed at signing. Not all guarantees are created equal. Not fully guaranteed at signing means that a player's future cap hit is contingent on whether or not the club keeps him on the roster several years down the road. Granted, most quarterbacks are not going to be released two or three years after signing a non-rookie deal, but the provisions included in the contract will determine his impact on a team's salary cap.

 

On a contract such as Watson's, cap hits can only be deferred, not eliminated. If the Browns keep restructuring Watson's deal at the current rate, they'll have about 37 cents to spend under the cap by year five.



#4652 Slidemaster

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 12:01 PM

What are the chances the Colts draft a QB at 4, and then arrange a trade for Jackson that includes the QB they took?

Probably pretty slim, right?

#4653 Biggsy

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 12:01 PM


But then they have to give him a deal the Ravens can't match.
If they want him so bad, why risk that? Just include the 4th pick now, which compensation wise (plus with the contract impasse) the Ravens probably wouldn't turn down?



The 4th pick is a lot more valuable than most here believe. You're almost guaranteed to get one of Carter or Anderson. Both of which have all-pro potential, at positions where it is very hard to find that level of talent. Blue chip edge and interior DL have been difficult to find.

I'm not sure how anyone finds it far fetched that Indy wouldn't want to keep the 4th pick, then make an offer to Lamar. The fact that Indy hasn't been even trying to land the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft, and hasn't been mentioned with any of the starting QB's in free agency seems pretty telling to me.

#4654 mdrunning

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 12:07 PM

The 4th pick is a lot more valuable than most here believe. You're almost guaranteed to get one of Carter or Anderson. Both of which have all-pro potential, at positions where it is very hard to find that level of talent. Blue chip edge and interior DL have been difficult to find.

I'm not sure how anyone finds it far fetched that Indy wouldn't want to keep the 4th pick, then make an offer to Lamar. The fact that Indy hasn't been even trying to land the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft, and hasn't been mentioned with any of the starting QB's in free agency seems pretty telling to me.

Perhaps, but I don't think they're going to find a team willing to do that. Carolina gave up a boatload to Chicago to get that first pick so they're certainly not going to be willing to trade it away. And if Carolina were indeed persuaded to trade down, the most likely trade partner would be Houston, which owns the No. 2 pick and 13 selections overall. 



#4655 Slidemaster

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 12:08 PM

The 4th pick is a lot more valuable than most here believe. You're almost guaranteed to get one of Carter or Anderson. Both of which have all-pro potential, at positions where it is very hard to find that level of talent. Blue chip edge and interior DL have been difficult to find.

I'm not sure how anyone finds it far fetched that Indy wouldn't want to keep the 4th pick, then make an offer to Lamar. The fact that Indy hasn't been even trying to land the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft, and hasn't been mentioned with any of the starting QB's in free agency seems pretty telling to me.

It's highly unlikely they would be able to make an offer the Ravens couldn't potentially match. What happens to them if they put all their eggs in the Lamar basket, the Ravens match, and then they're left without a quarterback? Do they just start Minshew and tank for next year?

I think that's a risk that fans are willing to make, but that I don't think GMs and coaches who have jobs on the line would make them.

Something else - there is a very big risk in acquiring Lamar so late in the offseason. Lamar requires an offense that is tailored to his strengths, just like any quarterback, and he is a huge departure from what they had with Matt Ryan or what they currently have with Minshew. There's no guarantee at all that acquiring him at the end of April or early May would give them enough time to install a completely different offense with the same offensive coaching staff. I don't know if that's a rusk that a coach and GM want to hang their careers on.

More than anything, I'm really beginning to believe that the rest of the league doesn't view Lamar like the Ravens or Lamar views Lamar. I have no doubt he would get a big deal if he were an unrestricted free agent, but it seems clear to me that the rest of the league does not look at him like an elite quarterback. This goes along with those anonymous quotes we've heard in the past from coaches and coordinators about Lamar's shortcomings. Whether those viewpoints are fair or not is debatable, but the actions, or rather inactions, of the rest of the league tells the story for me. I don't think anyone here, including me, expect there to be no offers at this point.

#4656 Slidemaster

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 12:12 PM

I very well end up being wrong, but I think the signing of Minshew tells you they value traditional pocket QBs for their offense over dual threats. I expect them to take Levis if he's there.

#4657 makoman

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 12:25 PM

I'm a very well end up being wrong, but I think the signing of Minshew tells you they value traditional pocket QBs for their offense over dual threats. I expect them to take Levis if he's there.

I think that's a stretch. He was in Philly last year and they kinda have a dual threat QB. I think Steichen was simply his coach last year and sees him as a capable backup. No one sees him as an entrenched starter signing for 1/3.5M IMO, I'd be surprised if they don't get someone else. Lamar still makes sense to try, I just don't see them waiting post-draft and having no other plan.



#4658 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 12:26 PM

The 4th pick is a lot more valuable than most here believe. You're almost guaranteed to get one of Carter or Anderson. Both of which have all-pro potential, at positions where it is very hard to find that level of talent. Blue chip edge and interior DL have been difficult to find.

I'm not sure how anyone finds it far fetched that Indy wouldn't want to keep the 4th pick, then make an offer to Lamar. The fact that Indy hasn't been even trying to land the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft, and hasn't been mentioned with any of the starting QB's in free agency seems pretty telling to me.

 

The 4th pick has plenty of value... if the Colts are willing to trade two #1s, and give him the contract he seeks, and make him their franchise... then it doesn't hold more value to Indianapolis. 

If they give the Ravens the 4th now, the Ravens will probably take that offer. 
If they don't give the Ravens the 4th...  the Ravens might feel the compensation is not enough, and match the offer. 



#4659 Slidemaster

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 12:32 PM


I think that's a stretch. He was in Philly last year and they kinda have a dual threat QB. I think Steichen was simply his coach last year and sees him as a capable backup. No one sees him as an entrenched starter signing for 1/3.5M IMO, I'd be surprised if they don't get someone else. Lamar still makes sense to try, I just don't see them waiting post-draft and having no other plan.


You could be right. It's just a feeling I have. They also may believe that Richardson is going 1 overall, and Arizona is not taking a QB, and either Young or Stroud will fall into their laps.

#4660 Mackus

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 12:50 PM

That would apply to money that is fully guaranteed at signing. Not all guarantees are created equal. Not fully guaranteed at signing means that a player's future cap hit is contingent on whether or not the club keeps him on the roster several years down the road. Granted, most quarterbacks are not going to be released two or three years after signing a non-rookie deal, but the provisions included in the contract will determine his impact on a team's salary cap.

On a contract such as Watson's, cap hits can only be deferred, not eliminated. If the Browns keep restructuring Watson's deal at the current rate, they'll have about 37 cents to spend under the cap by year five.

A guaranteed dollar counts exactly the same against the cap as a non-guaranteed dollar does.

As soon as it's spent, it counts. If it's not spent (i.e. was non-guaranteed and player was cut before earning it) then it doesn't count.

You're talking about something slightly different, in that all guaranteed dollars will eventually come due and need to be both paid out and accounted against the cap whereas non-guaranteed dollars might not.




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