28 replies to this topic

[dude]

I went on the MASN All Access show 

https://t.co/Mn8YttsvdK

 

Well, first 8 13 30 40 minutes are all BS.  No truth to anything they are saying.  It's incredible how many things they say are flat wrong or misguided.  Crazy.  I get it's a MASN gig so you have to bow to it, but ugh.

 

One other comment.  I think their style is good and the production is OK.  It's hard to do that and bring good chemistry and energy and pace pretty seamlessly, so no issues with that.  ...but if that was a Math Test....they don't just get an F, they'd get like a 10 out of 100, or a 6.

 

Bob on at 42:30.  No use in listening to the first 42 minutes.  Bob does a good job.

[Mike B]

I went on the MASN All Access show to discuss the state of the Orioles pitching prospects and also touched on some other subjects as well.

https://t.co/Mn8YttsvdK

Real nice job!  You presented yourself and your information with enthusiasm.  Well done.

 

I do not think Connolly was trying to trash the Orioles and their farm system.  I thought what he wrote was his view and I share some of his opinion.  Rodriquez is the real deal IMO.  If he misses, then we have real problems.  I have not seen much of Hall, and I think the others form a group of maybe's.  I like Baumann, but I could see his value more of a back end BP guy, which has real value.  Everytime I see Braddish, he seems to get wrecked.  Same with Smith.

I hope we invest in some real starting pitching this off season.  I think better pitching will make it easier  for all the prospects to have success..  

[Mackus]

Even with Grayson, there is a significant chance he never establishes himself as a solid starting pitcher or that it takes a few years to get there.  Prospects are volatile.  Especially pitching prospects who have a much higher risk of a major injury which dramatically changes their abilities.

 

Just picking a random year, in 2016 3 SP were in the top-10 having reached upper levels of the minors (Rodriguez is currently #8 according to MLB).  Lucas Giolito, Alex Reyes, and Tyler Glasnow.  Glasnow and Giolito are pitching well as SP this season.  So that's encouraging.  Reyes is a RP, but is pitching well.  But the road to this point was very volatile for each.  Reyes had lots of injuries and only pitched 72 innings total from 2016 and 2020 and he's only a RP.  Glasnow and Gioltio both struggled for multiple years (5+ ERA in 200/240 IP from '16-'18) and got traded before putting things together.  Both have been good since 2019.  Glasnow has had stronger performance (2.80 to 3.50 ERA) but Giolito has had better health and availability (400 to 200 IP).

 

2016 would be equivalent to 2022 for Rodriguez.  So while it's certainly possible he hits the ground running, I think expecting him to be pitching 180 IP at a mid-3s ERA next year or in 2023 is a bit optimistic.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Even with Grayson, there is a significant chance he never establishes himself as a solid starting pitcher or that it takes a few years to get there. Prospects are volatile. Especially pitching prospects who have a much higher risk of a major injury which dramatically changes their abilities.

Just picking a random year, in 2016 3 SP were in the top-10 having reached upper levels of the minors (Rodriguez is currently #8 according to MLB). Lucas Giolito, Alex Reyes, and Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow and Giolito are pitching well as SP this season. So that's encouraging. Reyes is a RP, but is pitching well. But the road to this point was very volatile for each. Reyes had lots of injuries and only pitched 72 innings total from 2016 and 2020 and he's only a RP. Glasnow and Gioltio both struggled for multiple years (5+ ERA in 200/240 IP from '16-'18) and got traded before putting things together. Both have been good since 2019. Glasnow has had stronger performance (2.80 to 3.50 ERA) but Giolito has had better health and availability (400 to 200 IP).

2016 would be equivalent to 2022 for Rodriguez. So while it's certainly possible he hits the ground running, I think expecting him to be pitching 180 IP at a mid-3s ERA next year or in 2023 is a bit optimistic.

Another reason why '22 and even '23 likely arent realistic goals to contend. I expect them to compete hard in '23 but not contend. It just seems to take pitchers awhile to find their footing in the majors. On one hand yeah, I pretty much expect Rodriguez to struggle early. On the other hand it should make people understand that you dont give up on the Akins, Kremers, Lowthers of the world because they are horrible in their first 100 to 200 ML innings.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

To elaborate, my guess is pitchers are often able to succeed in the minors on stuff alone. Big league hitters are a different breed. They see you one time through and can make adjustments AB to AB. They can catch up to anything. They spoil pitchers pitches. My guess is the pitchers dont have anywhere near the data and analytics to self evaluate in the minors. You need to get to the majors. Figure out what it is you have that works and doesnt work against ML hitters and then how to sequence and execute on a consistent basis.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Even with Grayson, there is a significant chance he never establishes himself as a solid starting pitcher or that it takes a few years to get there.  Prospects are volatile.  Especially pitching prospects who have a much higher risk of a major injury which dramatically changes their abilities.

 

Just picking a random year, in 2016 3 SP were in the top-10 having reached upper levels of the minors (Rodriguez is currently #8 according to MLB).  Lucas Giolito, Alex Reyes, and Tyler Glasnow.  Glasnow and Giolito are pitching well as SP this season.  So that's encouraging.  Reyes is a RP, but is pitching well.  But the road to this point was very volatile for each.  Reyes had lots of injuries and only pitched 72 innings total from 2016 and 2020 and he's only a RP.  Glasnow and Gioltio both struggled for multiple years (5+ ERA in 200/240 IP from '16-'18) and got traded before putting things together.  Both have been good since 2019.  Glasnow has had stronger performance (2.80 to 3.50 ERA) but Giolito has had better health and availability (400 to 200 IP).

 

2016 would be equivalent to 2022 for Rodriguez.  So while it's certainly possible he hits the ground running, I think expecting him to be pitching 180 IP at a mid-3s ERA next year or in 2023 is a bit optimistic.

 

My expectation for Rodriguez is a league average 4th to 5th starter in '22, and a 3rd or better in '23. 
 

[Mike B]

My expectation for Rodriguez is a league average 4th to 5th starter in '22, and a 3rd or better in '23. 
 

Probably so, but this kid is really impressive.  I think he has a chance to be one of those guys who comes up and already looks special.

That said, they are not brining him up until late May IMO.

[Mackus]

My expectation for Rodriguez is a league average 4th to 5th starter in '22, and a 3rd or better in '23.

Seems like a reasonable expectation. But here's what those three similarly highly regarded (MLB top-10) prospects did in their 2nd year (2023 for Grayson when you think he's a #3 or better):

45 IP 2.31 ERA
DNP - injured
62 IP 7.69 ERA

I'm sure there are other years and individual recent examples where top-10 guys were pitching well 2 years later. Walker Buehler, for example. But there seem to be more recent examples of things taking a while. Hard to say with guys from 2018/2019 upper level top prospects since Covid interrupted things significantly.

None of that history applies directly to Rodriguez. Just looking back at some trends.  I think we need to realize that even for top prospects at the very highest level, how good they are currently is far less important to how much better they'll continue to get and whether or not they can continue to improve.  And there really is just no way to know who will get better (I could see teams having some confidence in picking out who won't get better, based on attitude and mentality).

[FL O's Fan]

I'm not concerned about the pitching depth at this point. I think there are other ways to build a team then to try to do what the Rays and maybe the Cardinals seem to be able to do. Really, I feel like the Rays are far and away the best at churning out pitchers. I think it's a really hard thing to try to duplicate. 

 

I'm hopeful we can develop as much talent as possible, regardless of position, and make acquisitions to fill holes with the talent we've built.