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Connolly: The dirty little secret of the Orioles’ rebuild is the pitching cupboard’s nearly bare


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#1 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 12:06 PM

Behind the Athletic paywall but here you go https://theathletic...._shared_article


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#2 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 12:12 PM

Cant read the article but Im defintely concerned about the pitching for the near future. Its why I dont think '22 is any kind of realistic goal to contend or even be .500 unless a lot goes right. That said, the hope is the fringy guys give us something better than what the first wave of Kremer, Akin etc have this year. Not that the door is shut on either of those two either. It just seems to take more time to find your footing at the ML level as a pitcher.

#3 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 12:13 PM

The basic gist is no one has high expectations besides Grayson and Hall...which I feel like we already knew? If Means, Grayson and Hall are all respectable then I feel like they can get two more competent pitchers through some combination of the lower tier prospects, trading bats or a random free agent 


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#4 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 12:19 PM

Screen-Shot-2021-08-19-at-9-33-44-PM.png

 

Also I looked, based on the updated MLB.com rankings, there's only nine farm systems with at least two top-100 pitching prospects so they're still in pretty good shape relative to the rest of the league's pitching prospects   


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#5 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 12:20 PM

Meh. Guys will start to get some helium as they get innings. Look, how many teams have 3+ pitchers on a top 100 prospect list. All teams need some of the Baumanns, Smith, Bradish, Lowthers etc, etc to conttibute. This is the problem with prospect lists in general. Too much expectations for those that make the list but there is little to no expectations for those that don't. We dont need the equivalent of Mullins or Means who come from nowhere to be All Stars at the big league club. We need some Trey Mancini's. Guys that were productive in the minors and continue to be productive in the majors. Nothing more nothing less.
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#6 NewMarketSean

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 01:10 PM

The Orioles need to target the Bud Norris' of the world in the offseason and not the Matt Harveys or Wade LeBlancs.

 

Guys who give you a realistic chance each night they take the mound and more importantly eat innings.

 

Matt Harvey is 32, has made 24 starts and pitched 104 innings and has a 6.25 ERA.

 

We need to target guys who have  a better chance of giving  you more innings while getting you a run and a half less in the ERA column.

 

You can't rely on your A and B prospects to fill out an entire rotation and do that or better. You just can't.

 

Sign better players.


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#7 BobPhelan

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 03:13 PM

What complete and utter dogshit. Connolly is a buffoon.



#8 McNulty

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 03:40 PM

Bob why do you say that? Not a fan of his either but I had very similar thoughts recently. Between ignoring early round pitching in the last 3 drafts, covid and higher level regressions, I’m not sure he’s wrong. You’d know better so please tell me what’s up.
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@fuzydunlop


#9 BobPhelan

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 04:08 PM

Bob why do you say that? Not a fan of his either but I had very similar thoughts recently. Between ignoring early round pitching in the last 3 drafts, covid and higher level regressions, I’m not sure he’s wrong. You’d know better so please tell me what’s up.

 

As he notes we have the best pitching prospect in baseball and one of the best left handed pitching prospects in baseball. His "anonymous rival scouts" is a strange source to me because it seems cherry picked. The only other team in baseball that has more than two top 100 pitching prospects are the Marlins with four (as shown above). There is a ton of depth at pitching in our system that is performing well (https://forum.baltim...ng-depth-chart/). Obviously some of them will be busts, some of them will be relievers, and some will be successful but there is strength in numbers there. How many successful ML starters spent much if any time on a top 100 list? I'm honestly not sure but I know John Means didn't and Jorge Lopez did. I also have faith in the Orioles new player development and minor league coaching (I know, but its true) especially Justin Ramsey in AAA. I also feel like its underrated the impact Adley Rutschman is going to have on the pitching staff being behind the plate. Between the Orioles defense and having some of the worst pitch framers in the sport in the majors (which is a failing of the ML team construction) its hard to tell how much that could be having an effect.

 

Ultimately, we are ranked as the 1st best farm system in baseball by FanGraphs, 2nd best by Baseball America, and 3rd best by MLB Pipeline. That is because of the depth of the talent in the system to go along with having two of the top prospects in the game. I've been following the Orioles minor leagues for 25 years now and I'm not exaggerating that the amount of talent from top to bottom is unprecedented when it comes to this organization. Elias isn't perfect and I absolutely understand the complaints when it comes to the quality of product at the major league level but I honestly don't think he could be doing any better at accomplishing his stated goal of establishing an "elite talent pipeline". 


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#10 McNulty

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 04:21 PM

Ok I’ll rephrase. Who do you think has a reasonable (20%?) chance to be a successful #3 or better besides the top 2?

@fuzydunlop


#11 BobPhelan

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Posted 20 August 2021 - 05:14 PM

Kyle Bradish, Michael Baumann, Jean Pinto, Kevin Smith. In that order.

They will also use prospect depth to trade for major league arms.
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#12 russsnyder

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Posted 21 August 2021 - 09:16 AM

The Orioles need to target the Bud Norris' of the world in the offseason and not the Matt Harveys or Wade LeBlancs.

Guys who give you a realistic chance each night they take the mound and more importantly eat innings.

Matt Harvey is 32, has made 24 starts and pitched 104 innings and has a 6.25 ERA.

We need to target guys who have a better chance of giving you more innings while getting you a run and a half less in the ERA column.

You can't rely on your A and B prospects to fill out an entire rotation and do that or better. You just can't.

Sign better players.


I think this is reasonable position.

If nothing else, an innings eating veteran starter or two will serve this purpose better than the Eschelmans and Watkins types that they have been turning to.
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#13 BaltBird 24

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Posted 21 August 2021 - 11:19 AM

I don't trust any Oriole pitching prospect until they prove me wrong.

#14 BobPhelan

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 03:35 PM

I went on the MASN All Access show to discuss the state of the Orioles pitching prospects and also touched on some other subjects as well.

https://t.co/Mn8YttsvdK
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#15 Mackus

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 03:54 PM

Not work, Bob.


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#16 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 04:57 PM

Was that an On the Verge TShirt. How do I get  mine?


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#17 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 05:05 PM


Was that an On the Verge TShirt. How do I get mine?

Yeah, I'd rep it. Make it a golf polo.
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#18 BobPhelan

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 07:33 PM

Was that an On the Verge TShirt. How do I get  mine?

 

 

Yeah, I'd rep it. Make it a golf polo.

 

Coming soon to a merch store near you. Got a couple other designs I think people are going to like too!



#19 Mike in STL

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 08:36 PM

I went on the MASN All Access show to discuss the state of the Orioles pitching prospects and also touched on some other subjects as well.

https://t.co/Mn8YttsvdK


Keep up the good work!
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#20 Mike B

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Posted 23 August 2021 - 08:44 PM

Behind the Athletic paywall but here you go https://theathletic...._shared_article

I read it and, I think it is fair.  

I think the pitching in the minor leagues has to be watched.  We have one premier prospect and a possible second, who has been hurt the majority of the year.

I have seen most of the pitchers we talk about.  I like Baumann, don’t think there is anything else that is close.


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