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Orioles 2021 Draft Signings


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#101 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 25 July 2021 - 06:52 PM

There seems to be some trends in Elias’ drafts. But it was made pretty clear in Astroball that he and Mejdal going back to their days in St. Louis would not discount players for any reason, including where they played ball, be it high school, small NCAA conference, major NCAA conference.

Maybe it’s a coincidence. Maybe the pandemic halted the development of more high schoolers and there just weren’t many outside of the elite worth taking early. A lot of Mejdal’s work was in building predictive models and those models are weighted based on level of play. When there are less data points with a high schooler than normal, the model probably leans heavier on college players.

But I don’t think Elias will just not pick pitchers early or not pick high schoolers early just because.
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#102 dude

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Posted 25 July 2021 - 07:13 PM

Also, if I'm drafting 1-2 in this draft, I'm getting Davis.  The reason Davis is a Pirate is because they could leverage 1-4/5 (RedSox/Orioles) draft slot, sell him on 1-1 and cut a deal to do other things (which they did) in the daft.  They are considering how to leverage their 1-1 position.

 

If I'm drafting 1-2 and I want to stay on the profile I want, then his number is 7.5M and the Pirates pass on him. 

I get him at 1-2. 



#103 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 25 July 2021 - 07:15 PM

...so this is your answer to my question, right? You think having a rule like they keep using is foolish. You are an advocate of Elias and don't want to label his approach as foolish. Therefore, what he's doing can't be what he's doing.

You said over and over you thought they were taking Watson, right? ...but Watson was there and they didn't take him so we're going to ignore that.

Again, I don't care....I'd rather draft 30th.

I said my preference was Watson and ultimately predicted that they would pick Watson. I also said numerous times I thought Cowser was in the on a very short list of guys in the mix with Watson, House and Davis (had he been there).

#104 RichardZ

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Posted 25 July 2021 - 10:14 PM

Also, if I'm drafting 1-2 in this draft, I'm getting Davis. The reason Davis is a Pirate is because they could leverage 1-4/5 (RedSox/Orioles) draft slot, sell him on 1-1 and cut a deal to do other things (which they did) in the daft. They are considering how to leverage their 1-1 position.

If I'm drafting 1-2 and I want to stay on the profile I want, then his number is 7.5M and the Pirates pass on him.
I get him at 1-2.


Really not sure what your point is. I mean, I know what your point is but who cares?

#105 dude

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Posted 25 July 2021 - 11:22 PM

Really not sure what your point is. I mean, I know what your point is but who cares?

 

My point is Jack Leiter was never going to be an Oriole.  It seems to bother some.  I don't care.



#106 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 25 July 2021 - 11:33 PM

My point is Jack Leiter was never going to be an Oriole.  It seems to bother some.  I don't care.

I didn't know you were in the draft room and saw their big board. Tell us more about your experience. 


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Posted 25 July 2021 - 11:43 PM

I didn't know you were in the draft room and saw their big board. Tell us more about your experience. 

 

Earlier today, I went back and looked at their history with STL also...it's ugly.  With Houston...it's ugly.

 

These guys have been burned by pitching early in the draft.  They did some things in terms of development in Houston with pitching, but none of it was through their drafts for those 2017-2019 teams.

 

It's not just a trend.  It's a clear preference.  I'm not trying to fit them into what I think they should do.  It doesn't bother me that he wants to go college bat.  They are trying to avoid the risk of a total non-performing high pick.  They want some WAR out of it.

 

Steven noted in his '21/'22 article that they only drafted one pitcher (one.) in BA top 500.

 

Maybe they'll do something else next year.  Join the Quad, I get college bat.



#108 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 26 July 2021 - 06:36 AM

My point is Jack Leiter was never going to be an Oriole. It seems to bother some. I don't care.


They've made clear they do have a preference. College hitting. Additional data. Athleticism. Middle of the field. SEC. Exit velo. Trading bats for developed pitching.

But I'll continue to believe they would have taken Leiter.

That's my opinion.

I'm not bothered that you think they wouldn't have. I just think you're incorrectly reading preference as some definitive rule.
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#109 makoman

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Posted 26 July 2021 - 07:29 AM

I think the point that ​everyone is making is that we do not have any reason to say that there are any bright line rules. We definitely have reason to think they love college bats, whether explicitly part of the model or due to the data that gets input. College bats definitely get a thumb on the scale somewhere, ties go to them, whatever. But there's no evidence that it is some sort of guarantee. That's all people are pushing back against.

 

We have three drafts of data. In 2019 Adley was the no-doubt-about-it-obvious pick, so much so that people here do not even give Elias credit for picking him. 2020 was Covid weird, everybody weighted college higher it seems, the first 7 picks were from college and the first round, which is usually more balanced, was 24-13. This year he could have gone either way and obviously took what looks like the best remaining college bat. That isn't much data, especially given the above factors.

 

If you want to use Houston data as well, fine. That's less reliable as I'd assume Elias was not the final decision maker, but whatever, let's pretend he was. Yeah Brady and Appel burned them. They still picked HS arm Forrest Whitley after that, he's had his problems but has still been a top 100 prospect 4 times so he didn't really burn anybody. They picked college arm JB Bukauskas after that, helped them get Grienke so he was useful. Kyle Tucker was a top 5 HS OF and is having an all star caliber season. And of course perhaps his defining pick was an underslot HS shortstop.  

 

As Chris said, "I just think you're incorrectly reading preference as some definitive rule."



#110 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 July 2021 - 07:50 AM

Earlier today, I went back and looked at their history with STL also...it's ugly.  With Houston...it's ugly.

 

These guys have been burned by pitching early in the draft.  They did some things in terms of development in Houston with pitching, but none of it was through their drafts for those 2017-2019 teams.

 

It's not just a trend.  It's a clear preference.  I'm not trying to fit them into what I think they should do.  It doesn't bother me that he wants to go college bat.  They are trying to avoid the risk of a total non-performing high pick.  They want some WAR out of it.

 

Steven noted in his '21/'22 article that they only drafted one pitcher (one.) in BA top 500.

 

Maybe they'll do something else next year.  Join the Quad, I get college bat.

Depends on your definition of "burned by pitching" early in the draft. 2008 the took Lance Lynn. 2009 they took Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly. 2010 wasn't great, 2011 they went hitting heavy early on. 2012 they go to Houston  after their first pick in Correa they took Lance McCullers. The top four players in 2014 were Aiken, Tyler Kolek, Carlos Rodon, Alex Jackson. 3 pitchers and a catcher. In hindsight, they only had a 25% chance of getting the pick right with Rodon only doing anything of note. Their model told them Aiken was the pick. Nolan Ryan had some clout in that Astros organization too. If he didn't have a small UCL, discovered after they took him, who know what kind of career he ends up having. 

 

Sure. complete whiffs in other drafts, but isn't that baseball? 

 

A lot of people out there don't want to see the Ravens drafting wide receivers because they have been really bad at it, and haven't developed anyone. Basically Torrey Smith, and Marquise Brown, even if he regresses, wouldn't be considered a bust of a pick anymore. But certainly long stretches of disappointing WR picks. Thats a bad reason to not draft a WR if there is one you like, or with an early first round pick (which is rare for the Ravens to have) to pass up what looks like a no brainer. They spent their first pick on a WR this year, so we'll see. 

 

I don't think if the Orioles liked Leiter more than Cowser, that he would have made it past them given the chance, simply because their model hasn't spit out a good pitcher pick early in sometime.


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#111 makoman

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Posted 26 July 2021 - 08:33 AM

I didn't read Astroball so maybe this is answered there...as far as I can tell Elias was a scout and cross checker for St. Louis. He would certainly give his input, but that seems to be several levels away from decision making. Do the St. Louis drafts really tell us much about his opinions on anything?



#112 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 26 July 2021 - 12:37 PM

I didn't read Astroball so maybe this is answered there...as far as I can tell Elias was a scout and cross checker for St. Louis. He would certainly give his input, but that seems to be several levels away from decision making. Do the St. Louis drafts really tell us much about his opinions on anything?

Making the final decisions, no. But its mentioned in the draft rooms they drop all the formalities. Scouts are expected to speak openly with management, make their cases, argue if needed, without repercussion. "Check your ego at the door" kind of thing. It goes back to Mejdal, who was hired by Lunhow the year before Elias was. Scouting for the 2005 draft, Mejdal felt that Jed Lowrie would have been the best pick for the Cardinals. But laughed out of the room when the decision makers had their eyes on power hitter and son of a major leaguer John Maayberry Jr, and Tyler Greene because he "looked like a major leaguer". Lowrie was undersized by conventional standards. 

 

The Cardinals took Greene. Lowrie went with the 45th pick to Theo Epstien and the Red Sox, and had the best career of the three guys by miles.  After Moneyball came out in 2003, scouts were looked at as the bad guys. Elias, Lunhow, Mejdal, realized going forward the staff needed to all work together to make the best decisions. Scouts shouldn't be afraid to make their pitch about unconventional players in fear of losing credibility. Just have a good case for making your pitch about said player. They began to ignore things about a player like what state they are from, their size, etc...Can they play ball is what matters most.


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#113 Slidemaster

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Posted 26 July 2021 - 01:15 PM

2. He hates drafting HS players with high picks. Ever hear of Gunnar Henderson?

He certainly seems to favor college hitters but I doubt they totally excluding other categories.

3. You don't believe they would have taken Leiter if he dropped?

You're right. A single draft pick in his first draft completely destroys my opinion.

No idea if he would have taken Leiter, but he fits the bill of the kind of player he has never shown a propensity to take. Would I say never? Of course not. Do I think it's likely? Not particularly.

#114 dude

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Posted 26 July 2021 - 11:54 PM

Interestingly (maybe), the only 5 guys left in the 1st round to sign (at least officially, per mlb.com) are Leiter, Lawler, Rocker, House and Watson. :)






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