I wanted to get an idea of what the reasonable range of expectations are for a really good pitching prospect. Obviously some guys will do nothing and some will become HOF, but how many of each and what's average?
Below is any top-20 overall (according to MLB Pipeline) pitching prospect since 2011:
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 2 Dylan Bundy 3 Matt Moore Lucas Giolito 4 Julio Teheran Taijuan Walker Taijuan Walker Julio Urias 5 Shelby Miller Trevor Bauer 6 Zack Wheeler 7 Jacob Turner Gerrit Cole Archie Bradley Tyler Glasnow 8 Martin Perez Danny Hultzen Lucas Giolito 9 Jameson Taillon Tyler Skaggs Archie Bradley 10 Jameson Taillon Noah Sundergaard 11 Jon Gray 12 Tyler Skaggs Noah Syndergaard Dylan Bundy 13 Manny Banuelos 14 Casey Kelly Kevin Gausman Julio Urias 15 Jameson Taillon Dylan Bundy Tyler Glasnow Steven Matz 16 Jake Odorizzi Robert Stephenson Alex Reyes 17 Jarrod Parker Robert Stephenson Andrew Heaney 18 Archie Bradley Carlos Rodon 19 Mike Montgomery Shelby Miller Henry Owens Sean Newcomb 20 Jose Berrios
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 Shohei Ohtani 2 3 Lucas Giolito Mackenzie Gore 4 Mackenzie Gore 5 Casey Mize 6 Nate Pearson 7 Alex Reyes Casey Mize 8 Tyler Glasnow Forrest Whitley 9 10 Michael Kopech Nate Pearson 11 Walker Buehler 12 Brent Honeywell Jesus Luzardo 13 Anderson Expinoza Mackenzie Gore 14 15 Alex Reyes 16 Mitch Keller Forrest Whitley 17 Michael Kopech Forrest Whitley 18 Hunter Greene Casey Mize Jesus Luzardo Michael Kopech 19 Mitch Keller Michael Kopech Sixto Sanchez 20 Mike Soroka Matt Manning
And here is the average WAR and IP (as of 6/15/2021) for guys rated in the top-5, top-10, and top-20 for each of those years:
2011 bWAR IP 2012 bWAR IP 2013 bWAR IP 2014 bWAR IP 2015 bWAR IP 2016 bWAR IP 2017 bWAR IP 2018 bWAR IP 2019 bWAR IP 2020 bWAR IP Top 5 10.7 1023.1 Top 5 12.3 886.5 Top 5 8.5 642.2 Top 5 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Top 5 5.9 440.7 Top 5 7.3 564.2 Top 5 9.6 100.2 Top 5 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Top 5 0.0 0.0 Top 5 0.8 49.5 Top 10 7.4 834.6 Top 10 12.4 777.5 Top 10 7.3 528.1 Top 10 9.6 567.8 Top 10 5.3 428.1 Top 10 5.1 357.1 Top 10 5.4 72.7 Top 10 0.0 0.0 Top 10 0.4 39.7 Top 10 0.4 39.7 Top 20 5.8 639.8 Top 20 10.8 714.5 Top 20 8.6 619.5 Top 20 6.4 489.6 Top 20 5.6 448.1 Top 20 3.8 267.9 Top 20 3.1 117.1 Top 20 1.2 83.2 Top 20 0.5 45.3 Top 20 0.6 29.0