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Pitching Prospect Expectations


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#1 Mackus

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Posted 16 June 2021 - 09:13 AM

I wanted to get an idea of what the reasonable range of expectations are for a really good pitching prospect. Obviously some guys will do nothing and some will become HOF, but how many of each and what's average?

 

Below is any top-20 overall (according to MLB Pipeline) pitching prospect since 2011:

 

	2011			2012			2013			2014			2015		
1															
2				Dylan Bundy											
3	Matt Moore											Lucas Giolito		
4	Julio Teheran		Taijuan Walker		Taijuan Walker					Julio Urias		
5	Shelby Miller		Trevor Bauer											
6				Zack Wheeler											
7	Jacob Turner		Gerrit Cole		Archie Bradley					Tyler Glasnow		
8	Martin Perez		Danny Hultzen					Lucas Giolito					
9	Jameson Taillon		Tyler Skaggs					Archie Bradley					
10							Jameson Taillon		Noah Sundergaard					
11										Jon Gray					
12	Tyler Skaggs					Noah Syndergaard	Dylan Bundy					
13	Manny Banuelos														
14	Casey Kelly					Kevin Gausman		Julio Urias					
15				Jameson Taillon		Dylan Bundy		Tyler Glasnow		Steven Matz		
16	Jake Odorizzi								Robert Stephenson	Alex Reyes		
17	Jarrod Parker					Robert Stephenson	Andrew Heaney					
18				Archie Bradley					Carlos Rodon					
19	Mike Montgomery		Shelby Miller					Henry Owens		Sean Newcomb		
20													Jose Berrios		

	2016			2017			2018			2019			2020
1				Shohei Ohtani									
2													
3	Lucas Giolito											Mackenzie Gore
4										Mackenzie Gore			
5													Casey Mize
6													Nate Pearson
7	Alex Reyes								Casey Mize			
8	Tyler Glasnow					Forrest Whitley						
9													
10				Michael Kopech					Nate Pearson			
11				Walker Buehler									
12				Brent Honeywell		Jesus Luzardo						
13	Anderson Expinoza				Mackenzie Gore						
14													
15				Alex Reyes									
16							Mitch Keller		Forrest Whitley			
17										Michael Kopech		Forrest Whitley
18				Hunter Greene		Casey Mize		Jesus Luzardo		Michael Kopech
19				Mitch Keller		Michael Kopech					Sixto Sanchez
20							Mike Soroka					Matt Manning

 

And here is the average WAR and IP (as of 6/15/2021) for guys rated in the top-5, top-10, and top-20 for each of those years:

 

 

	2011	bWAR	IP	2012	bWAR	IP	2013	bWAR	IP	2014	bWAR	IP	2015	bWAR	IP	2016	bWAR	IP	2017	bWAR	IP	2018	bWAR	IP	2019	bWAR	IP	2020	bWAR	IP
	Top 5	10.7	1023.1	Top 5	12.3	886.5	Top 5	8.5	642.2	Top 5	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	Top 5	5.9	440.7	Top 5	7.3	564.2	Top 5	9.6	100.2	Top 5	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	Top 5	0.0	0.0	Top 5	0.8	49.5
	Top 10	7.4	834.6	Top 10	12.4	777.5	Top 10	7.3	528.1	Top 10	9.6	567.8	Top 10	5.3	428.1	Top 10	5.1	357.1	Top 10	5.4	72.7	Top 10	0.0	0.0	Top 10	0.4	39.7	Top 10	0.4	39.7
	Top 20	5.8	639.8	Top 20	10.8	714.5	Top 20	8.6	619.5	Top 20	6.4	489.6	Top 20	5.6	448.1	Top 20	3.8	267.9	Top 20	3.1	117.1	Top 20	1.2	83.2	Top 20	0.5	45.3	Top 20	0.6	29.0

 


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#2 Mackus

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Posted 16 June 2021 - 09:18 AM

For now this is just a small amount of data, I'd like to gather more but it's not very easily searchable like I could find for draft position. Doubtful I'll do much more on this.

 

So I'm not entirely sure what I think the takeaway is orif anything can be gleaned from only a decade, particularly the most recent decade where mostof these guys haven't finished their careers yet (at least the ones who managed to have careers, many did not).  I do think that this shows how volatile even the best pitching prospects in the game are.  The class from a decade ago was pitcher-heavy, 12 of the top-20 were pitchers.  Only two of them have accrued more than 10 career WAR (~3 good seasons).  The following year 10-of-20 were pitchers, but only 3 have accrued >10 career WAR.  Even these guys would only be in their late 20s or early 30s, so still time for them to do more.



#3 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 16 June 2021 - 10:08 AM

Im basically just going off the names but at minimum most of these guys have carved out legit major league careers.

#4 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 16 June 2021 - 10:10 AM

Whats somewhat interesting to me is how many of these guys dont hit their stride with their original team and or take awhile to find some success in the bigs.




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