59 replies to this topic

[NewMarketSean]

I don't think they've been saying this since 2006.

I do think they previously misallocated the resources they did have, when they were spending plenty.

In one way or the other they have been saying the same thing for the better part of 15 years. “Grow the arms, but the bats”, “Trust the process” etc.

I really don’t care what they say anymore I just want to see the plan develop and see them spend when the time comes. So far this offseason with the salary dumps and cutting MASN to the bone I am left wondering where these resources will actually come from. I’ve been sold several bill of goods in the past so this organization doesn’t have much trust capital with me right now and that isn’t a criticism of Elias that is a criticism of ownership.

[Ravens2006]

I think at least one significant reason why the Red Sox are currently generating more TV revenue is because they're almost perennially a winning, contending club.  They sell themselves (and generate revenue) based on their success.  Since 1967, they've had 9 sub-.500 seasons total.  In 54 seasons, they've finished below .500 just 9 times.   Two of those 9 were "shortened" seasons for reason of labor strife or COVID.  They've lost 90+ games twice in 54 years.  Four of those years they went 78-84.  That's not good, but it's also not atrocious either.  Their "down periods" have been shorter and less exaggerated.  What the Red Sox have posted in about half of their "bad" years the last 54 seasons, the Orioles would right now consider a HUGE SUCCESS and step towards the future.  They've also won 4 WS since the turn of the century.

 

The 2020 Red Sox REALLY struggled for the first time in many, many years.  Their .400 winning percentage (albeit a very short season) was their worst in the last 54 years.  Even bigger, you'd have to go back to 1932 to find a Red Sox team that won at a lower clip than the 2020 squad.  People tune in for a good show, something entertaining, games that make them happy.  They tune out when it's not a good "production".  And when they don't even have any HOPE that it's going to be a good show, they start to not tune in at all.

 

This accompanied that drop in success:  

 

"...It was clear pretty early on that the 2020 Red Sox weren’t going anywhere, and unsurprisingly a lot of fans tuned out as Boston stumbled to a 24-36 record in this pandemic-shortened season, marking the team’s worst record by winning percentage since 1965.  In fact, the Red Sox took a bigger hit in television ratings than any other Major League Baseball team. According to a new report from Forbes’ Maury Brown, Red Sox ratings on NESN were down 58% from 2019, dropping from a 5.15 average to 2.14. That was well ahead of the Los Angeles Angels, who saw the second-biggest drop at 40%..."

 

https://www.radio.co...ive-hit-in-2020

 

Time will tell, but if they were to maintain that level of non-success on the field for any length of time... I'd bet you'll see their TV revenues follow along rather quickly too.  Simply "Being Boston" isn't going to sustain big revenue.

 

The Orioles by comparison have lost 90+ 11 times since 2000, and last year would have been 12 had they played a full season.  It probably (in my opinion) would have been their third straight 100+ loss season.

[weird-O]

I wish they'd just implement a salary cap and a salary floor in MLB. Make every team spend 75 or 100 mil min. Whatever an appropriate floor is.

The strongest, most well funded union on the planet, won't let that happen.  

[Mike B]

The strongest, most well funded union on the planet, won't let that happen.  

I agree, but if the two sides ever worked together, which they will not, the game would be better and more balanced competitively.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The strongest, most well funded union on the planet, won't let that happen.

F the baseball union. Everyone talks about the mistakes MLB makes promoting their game but the union having as much power as they do hurts too. Every other major sport in this country has some form of a salary cap and MLB teams generally hate to go over a certain number anyway and pay luxury tax. Just make it official, have a floor and a rolling cap thats naturally going to continue to go up over time.

[Mike B]

F the baseball union. Everyone talks about the mistakes MLB makes promoting their game but the union having as much power as they do hurts too. Every other major sport in this country has some form of a salary cap and MLB teams generally hate to go over a certain number anyway and pay luxury tax. Just make it official, have a floor and a rolling cap thats naturally going to continue to go up over time.

Your 100% right, but the 2 sides can never work together.

[weird-O]

I agree, but if the two sides ever worked together, which they will not, the game would be better and more balanced competitively.

The union has no reason to concede on that issue. Their opinion is that it will artificially suppress salaries. And they're correct. Added to that, the owners keep closed books. The union assumes teams are making more money than is reported. They're correct about that as well. What extraordinarily wealthy business owner has ever been honest about how much money they make? 

[weird-O]

F the baseball union. Everyone talks about the mistakes MLB makes promoting their game but the union having as much power as they do hurts too. Every other major sportin this country has some form of a salary cap and MLB teams generally hate to go over a certain number anyway and pay luxury tax. Just make it official, have a floor and a rolling cap thats naturally going to continue to go up over time.

Although the anti-trust exemption no longer holds that much importance to the way MLB operates, it definitely informed the way the league has evolved. The only way to institute a salary floor/ceiling, is to just do it. The problem is, the union will strike. And that's why it will never happen. Because the truth is, most MLB players could never play another game, or get any additional salary, and they'd be financially secure for the rest of their lives. The owners however, can't survive without their business. 

 

The only way to make your plan work, is to let the players strike, wish them well in all their future endeavors, and call up their AAA teams. Those players would jump at the opportunity. The problem is, you're talking about a long walk, before the game would return to the level of play we're use to seeing in the big leagues. And fans will turn away, just like they did the last time MLB used scabs. 

[Mike in STL]

Is it worth comparing squads and win% for a second?

 

Lunhow, Elias, Mejdal come into the Astros in 2012. Elias, Mejdal are entering year 3 here in Baltimore. 

 

2012 Astros (.340): https://www.baseball.../HOU/2012.shtml

2013 Astros (.315): https://www.baseball.../HOU/2013.shtml

2014 Astros (.432): https://www.baseball.../HOU/2014.shtml

2015 Astros (.531): https://www.baseball.../HOU/2015.shtml

2016 Astros (.519): https://www.baseball.../HOU/2016.shtml

2017 WS Champs

 

2019 Orioles (.333): https://www.baseball.../BAL/2019.shtml

2020 Orioles (.416, 60-game season): https://www.baseball.../BAL/2020.shtml

2021 Orioles (TBD): https://www.mlb.com/...ter/depth-chart

2022 Orioles (TBD)

2023 Orioles (TBD) 

2024 Orioles (TBD)

 

Sounds like some of us are content with the Astros model, obviously, look at what they eventually accomplished. The hope is for the Orioles to be better than .500 in 2022, but in 2021, who cares how many games they win, right? So how did it start?

 

2012 HOU:

Who are the 1st round picks going back four years, assuming they would be key parts of the future? Jason Castro, Jordon Lyles, Jiovanni Mier, Michael Kvasnicka, Mike Foltynewicz, Delino DeShields Jr., George Springer.

Who is the young core on the MLB roster in 2012 for the next great team, since they need to tear down what exists? Castro, Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez, Lyles.

Who did they get rid of during or after the season? Trade 36 y/o Carlos Lee for 1st round pick Matt Dominguez (48 MLB PAs in 2011). Trade 28 y/o Jed Lowrie for Chris Carter (124 MLB PAs between 2010-11), Brad Peacock (12 MLB IP in 2011), Max Stasi (No MLB service time, promoted in 2013). Trade J.A. Happ for 5 guys amounting to not much. Joe Musgrove has been around a little.

 

2019 Orioles: Same questions

1st rounders: Ryan Mountcastle, Cody Sedlock, D.L. Hall, Grayson Rodriguez, Cadyn Griener

Young core on MLB roster for the next great team: Mancini (calling him young at 27 at the beginning of a rebuild is generous). Sisco, Stewart, Hays. 

Who did they get rid of? Trade 28 y/o Villar for Easton Lucas (No MLB service time). Trade 26 y/o Dylan Bundy for 4 guys with no MLB time, one has made it on to the O's 40-man as of 2021, Issac Mattson. Trumbo released.

 

Looks to me like the Astros were already fortunate enough to have more high picks than the Orioles have had, allowing them more chances at hitting on some. Castro walked after 2016. Lyles flipped for Dexter Fowler, a couple nothings, Folty traded for Gattis, DeShields made it to rule 5. Springer is top notch of course. Too soon to know what the Orioles have in the high draft picks Elias inherited. Will Mountcastle walk before the team reaches the top? Is Sedlock a nothing burger? Will Hall or G-Rod, get flipped for a veteran who stays for a cup of coffee as the O's get better? Or be nothing burgers themselves? 

The Astros core they inherited was could be considered a little better with the presence of Altuve, and a first round pick in the rotation. Keuchel would debut that year as well. 

The Astros traded guys they considered not part of the big picture for real players though. Big difference in what they have done versus the O's. Trade Lowrie for two MLB players but trade Villar for nothing. Bundy was young enough to turn around, but trade him for maybe one guy out of four.

 

2013 HOU:

1st round pick in 2012: Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers

Young core on MLB roster: Castro, Altuve, Villar, Dominguez, Carter, Gonzalez, Keuchel, Peacock.

Got rid of: Trade 22 y/o Lyles for Dexter Fowler (6 year MLB veteran)

 

2020 Orioles:

1st round pick in 2019: Adley Rutchman 

Young core on MLB roster: Mancini (missed season), Mountcastle, Hays, Stewart, Means, Akin.

Got rid of: Trade 30 y/o Iglesias for two minor leaguers, Jean Pinto, Garrett Stallings. Released 26 y/o Renauto Nunez. Trade Givens for Tyler Nevin, Terrin Vavra. Trade Alex Cobb for Jahmai Jones (7 MLB PAs in 2020).

 

Lunhow/Elias nailed their first draft picks in 2013. All signs point to Rutchman being great. Time will have to tell. Rutchman replaces Sisco on the "core" for me, as when he gets called up, Sisco is out of a job. We know now Dominguez wasn't a contributor for HOU though he was a first round pick. Elias got his hands on Keuchel and the change starts to come. Means took strides in 2019 making him a core piece. 2020 is just weird for everyone but had some personal stuff too, expect him to bounce back. Higher expectations for Akin as a 2nd rounder. For sake of argument, Stewart is still in there, but I don't think he fits in the future plans. Nevin could be a core piece in 2022.

 

2014 HOU:

1st round pick in 2013: Mark Appel

Young core on MLB roster: Castro, Altuve, Villar, Fowler, Springer, Carter, Gonzalez, Keuchel, Peacock

Got rid of: Released J.D. Martinez mid-spring training. Tigers signed him two days later. Traded 22 y/o Mike Foltynewicz (18.2 relief MLB IP) for 28 y/o Evan Gattis (784 MLB PAs between 2013-14).

 

2021 Orioles:

1st round pick in 2020: Heston Kjerstad, Jordan Westburg. 

Young Core on MLB roster: Same as 2020. Do we add Jones yet? 2nd round pick, called up to the majors last year. 

 

Sorry I probably made this TLDR, so I'll stop there instead of interpreting what they did in 15', 16', to get to the point where you take on a Justin Verlander contract to put you on top of the mountain. Point is, Elias wasn't flawless in Houston. Releasing Nunez might be a mistake like releasing J.D. Martinez was. Not working with Bundy might be mistake like dismissing J.A. Happ was. Foltynewicz ended up being decent, so did Gattis for them, but it was 33 y/o McCann and 40 y/o Beltran who were the C and DH on the title team. Different scenarios, but Heston Kjerstad could play as many MLB games as Mark Appel and Brady Aiken combined for all we know at this point. Drafting Kris Byant instead of Appel, maybe they are in the WS in 15, 16', rather than 17'. 

 

I think I like the moves they made in 2012, 2013 more than what they did here in 2019, 2020. But 2021 if they make solid moves, could be better than what they did in their third year in Houston and it evens out going into their 4th year where the product absolutely must improve. Still losing 90+ games in 2022 would be unacceptable.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Lot of good discussion points there Mike. Good work. 
Just one quick thought... anything short of a winning record in '22 will be unacceptable. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Lot of good discussion points there Mike. Good work.
Just one quick thought... anything short of a winning record in '22 will be unacceptable.

I could care less what the record is next year if a core is developing and showing good signs. Realistically '23 they're competing every night and '24 a playoff contender.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I could care less what the record is next year if a core is developing and showing good signs. Realistically '23 they're competing every night and '24 a playoff contender.

 

I'm a year ahead.  I expect a WC contender in '22, and a legit contender in '23.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I'm a year ahead. I expect a WC contender in '22, and a legit contender in '23.

I wish I shared your optimism.

[McNulty]

I could care less what the record is next year if a core is developing and showing good signs. Realistically '23 they're competing every night and '24 a playoff contender.

Couldn’t

[Mackus]

I'm a year ahead. I expect a WC contender in '22, and a legit contender in '23.

'22 is next year. That'd be awesome but seems wildly improbable to me.

[Mike in STL]

'22 is next year. That'd be awesome but seems wildly improbable to me.

Seems like a lot of things would have to go right, fast. 

 

Still think 55 wins this year at best. 

 

2022 If Mancini is back to normal, Mountcastle firmly in the middle of the lineup and producing as such, Jahmai Jones turns out to be someone like Kolten Wong. Nice table setter, solid defense, sneak in 10 dingers, be a 3.0 WAR player. Hays looking like early career Adam Jones. Means, Akin, Kramer not being a laughable top three in the rotation. Those things happen you can jump up to 70 wins, maybe. Will they add anyone of significance that can push that closer to 75 immediately? I don't think so. We'll see.

 

2023 - All of the above. They spent some serious money upgrading at SS/3B. Rutchman plays a full season and is no doubt rookie of the year. Everything we thought Matt Wieters was supposed to be. One of Means, Akin, Kramer emerges as a legit ace, no regression from the other two, and Hall or Gray-Rod is contributing in the rotation. Could take you from 70 to 85 wins, which oughta mean playing meaningful games in the final week or two of the season. 

 

2024 - All of the above. Another serious FA add. Maybe you're flipping Kjerstad or some other high prospect for a bonafide ace at the deadline. Bullpen isn't in disarray. Now we're talking 90 wins, division contending, being on the right side of luck push that upwards of 95. If Maikol Hernandez is a 20 y/o wunderkind at this point like Correa, Machado, look out 100 wins.

 

But that is a lot to go right. Banking on Mancini's health, and him not walking away in two years if he's a good player. Every young guy with upside developing. Every high pick meeting or exceed ing expectations. Winning every trade. The O's actually developing pitching. Actually spending in FA when the time comes. An Int'l FA panning out. Remember how badly we wanted Victor Victor? He's been a huge disappointment, still can't get out of minor league ball at age 24. Plus you have to avoid major regression, major injuries to key players. Wonder how Brandon Hyde manages when the talent is there and the games matter. 

 

So much has to go right. Not to mention, the Astros were doing things other teams weren't analytically back eight, nine years ago. Now other teams are, so the Orioles are getting up to par in that regard, rather than gaining an edge. 

 

Edit: Good things can have greater impact than the win totals i'm giving them. But i guess bad things can too. Twins went from 83 wins, to 59, to 85, to 78, to 101. Wild swings. 

[Ravens2006]

If MLB expands the wildcard insanity to put 7 total teams per league in the playoffs next year... almost any team playing .400+ ball could be considered a wildcard "contender" coming out of the All Star break next year, in that they won't be mathematically eliminated. So I guess that's a perk to the expanded playoff pools, a lot more bad and really bad teams will be contenders later and later in to the season.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Yeah Mike, I don't think everything has to go right. It certainly won't. Get the skepticism to a degree. Part of the optimism is that I don't think a wild series of events has to occur.

65-72 wins in '21.
81-90 wins in '22.
90+ in '23.

[Mike in STL]

Yeah Mike, I don't think everything has to go right. It certainly won't. Get the skepticism to a degree. Part of the optimism is that I don't think a wild series of events has to occur.

65-72 wins in '21.
81-90 wins in '22.
90+ in '23.

That's fine. I think we're still in the cutting players part for age/payroll reasons too much to expect them to be 65+ wins this year. Would they even get Varva, Nevin, Jones significant time this year to analyze them? I think they are still tinkering their way to 105 losses and think you're a year too soon, but hope I'm wrong. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

That's fine. I think we're still in the cutting players part for age/payroll reasons too much to expect them to be 65+ wins this year. Would they even get Varva, Nevin, Jones significant time this year to analyze them? I think they are still tinkering their way to 105 losses and think you're a year too soon, but hope I'm wrong.

If any of them end up being anything that's great. I don't think the Orioles are counting on them in any capacity.