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BSL: Should The O's Trade Santander?


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#1 BSLMattKory

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 08:19 AM

BSL: Should The O's Trade Santander?

https://baltimorespo...hony-santander/


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#2 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 08:39 AM

Exchange on FB: 

 

Rick Barker: You do realize Santander was up for a gold glove last year? Below average outfielder?

 

Me: Gold Gloves aren't a great measure of defensive ability. Of course neither are the publicly available defensive metrics at this stage either. The metrics available liked his play in RF last year, and that represented 25% of the Gold Glove balloting. Some of those numbers seemingly inflated a bit by the limited sample size... and again, those metrics now deemed as pretty limited. I (Chris Stoner), think by the eye test there was improvement, and a few really nice plays. I think he's closer to league average vs. above or below.

 

Rick Barker: thats your opinion but I disagree



#3 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 09:18 AM

Depends on the return, he’s certainly not untouchable.

#4 dude

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 09:22 AM

Anthony Santander has 4 years of service remaining, not three.


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#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 09:37 AM

Depends on the return, he’s certainly not untouchable.

 

 

Anthony Santander has 4 years of service remaining, not three.


These are my thoughts.  

He's not untouchable, but he's got 4 years of service remaining.  

Even if the questions prevent him from reaching his ceiling, he can be a productive piece.  

I'd like to see him get through '21 and have more information on what you have. 



#6 dude

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 09:44 AM

Me: Gold Gloves aren't a great measure of defensive ability. 

 

...but my question is, how do you do this article and not mention that he was a GG finalist?

 

We can question the merits of the GG process or defensive metrics, but the fact is that he was a GG finalist last year and that certainly has some (positive) bearing on his defensive perception.

 

We say he's a RFer, but when the Orioles selected him in the Rule 5 draft years ago, he was viewed more as a DH that could maybe play some 1B.  He played mostly OF in the minors with Cleveland, but there was no confidence in Baltimore early on that he would survive in the OF.

 

In 2019, Santander came back healthy and, to the surprise of many, played some competent OF across all three positions.

 

It's worth noting that, in a League where versatility carries some weight, he was a GG finalist in RF but has experience in LF, can play CF in a pinch or even 1B.

 

He also a switch-hitter (varied splits over the years), which also has some value in the matchup game that every team plays now.



#7 JeremyStrain

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 09:53 AM


These are my thoughts.  

He's not untouchable, but he's got 4 years of service remaining.  

Even if the questions prevent him from reaching his ceiling, he can be a productive piece.  

I'd like to see him get through '21 and have more information on what you have. 


On a team trying to find solid producing, cheap pieces to build around, I think he's not untouchable...but should be REALLY pricey if he's not. I agree this season is going to be a big sway for him, I think he produces even like he did last year, and he's a breakout star, value and cost go up. He regresses a bit and he's a solid piece, but hard to say he's too far ahead of the other pieces we have and have coming.

 

Re: GG - it's mostly reputation since they don't really share the good metrics, BUT some of those people with say in that have access to those good metrics too, so might be more than we see really. Either way, reputation affects value, and if we were to consider trading him in a year or so, hopefully the return would be significant enough to move the dial, especially if you can trade for another cost controlled young impact player at a different position. Those kinds of trades are fairly rare though, but generally when they happen they are a win for both clubs.


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#8 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 10:33 AM

I guess I don't see or even understand why the O's would even consider trading him short of a big haul. What is the point of drafting Rule 5 guys? Isn't it to find some hidden quality player? Santander is plenty good enough in the OF. He has really good power. And he's under team control for 4 freaking more years. 

 

So sure lets trade him for some younger guys with more team control. Lets groom them for a couple of years to show that they have then we can trade the one that pans out for a younger guy with more team control. Rinse and repeat. So stupid.


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#9 Old Man

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 10:35 AM

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#10 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 10:39 AM

What is the point of drafting Rule 5 guys? Isn't it to find some hidden quality player?

 

The point is to take advantage of a resource / opportunity to add potential to the system. 

 

The player doesn't have to ultimately be a piece for you, to have value. 

I don't see Santander going anywhere. I'd be pretty surprised.



#11 Mackus

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 11:11 AM

I guess I don't see or even understand why the O's would even consider trading him short of a big haul. What is the point of drafting Rule 5 guys? Isn't it to find some hidden quality player? Santander is plenty good enough in the OF. He has really good power. And he's under team control for 4 freaking more years. 

 

So sure lets trade him for some younger guys with more team control. Lets groom them for a couple of years to show that they have then we can trade the one that pans out for a younger guy with more team control. Rinse and repeat. So stupid.

 

Only thing I'd add is that besides from a big haul, if you think you're selling at peak value, then it might make sense.  If you think the strong 1/3 season from Santander is the best he'll ever be and he drops back to a <800 bat, then it makes sense.

 

But agree with everything else you argue against.  You can't just keep kicking the can down the road in terms of prospects.  At some point we need major league players.  Santander looks like one currently.


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#12 Mike B

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 11:15 AM

First, let me say that I hold Santander in higher regard than Matt does, but my real problem is why we are looking to trade him.  If I thought the Orioles were looking to get good value out of what I think is a good and maybe still improving player, I would be okay with that.  I believe, it is the Orioles looking to part ways with another arbitration eligible player.  It is payroll related, so another player who has made this dreadful product, somewhat watchable will probably be shown the deal.

I apologize, because I know I am a broken record, but how long does Elias think he can put a very bad product in front of the fans.  When do we stop letting players go for "lottery ticket" trades or even worse nothing.


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#13 JeremyStrain

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 11:20 AM

Only thing I'd add is that besides from a big haul, if you think you're selling at peak value, then it might make sense.  If you think the strong 1/3 season from Santander is the best he'll ever be and he drops back to a <800 bat, then it makes sense.

 

But agree with everything else you argue against.  You can't just keep kicking the can down the road in terms of prospects.  At some point we need major league players.  Santander looks like one currently.


Yeah, I can't really see where it makes sense unless you are trading for another young controlled player at a different position. Like we are deep at OF, another team is loaded at 3B but shallow in OF and you swap young players with similar time. It's really rare though, trying to line up, and most teams will just move guys around, so 3B would become less defensive LF or something. More often it's a SP for a position player, but finding a SP with demonstrated success with 4 years of control left in the majors already isn't something teams are trying to let go of.

 

It's not like he doesn't fit right into the core we are trying to launch though. Means and Mancini would be at the front of it, then you've got Santy, Mountcastle, and whoever come up THIS year, and Adley, Gonzalez, Hall etc. in the next batch.


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#14 Mike B

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 11:43 AM

Only thing I'd add is that besides from a big haul, if you think you're selling at peak value, then it might make sense.  If you think the strong 1/3 season from Santander is the best he'll ever be and he drops back to a <800 bat, then it makes sense.

 

But agree with everything else you argue against.  You can't just keep kicking the can down the road in terms of prospects.  At some point we need major league players.  Santander looks like one currently.

I agree 100% with the bolded part.  At some point, we need to start fielding a major league team.


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#15 dude

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 01:29 PM

At some point, we need to start fielding a major league team.

 

John and Lou Angelos have a perspective on when that point is.

Mike Elias also has a perspective on when that point is.

Fans have a perspective on that.

 

Assuming those 3 perspectives are aligned, imo, would be a mistake.



#16 dude

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 03:29 PM

I also disagree with what Matt writes here...

What could the Orioles expect to get in return? That’s very difficult to say, but probably not a whole lot, for a few reasons.

 

I think the article undersells his value.  He's a 26 yr old, switch-hitter, GG finalist coming off an .890 OPS season with 4 years of reasonable control.

 

You need the right teams to generate interest....that's what we should be exploring.  Let's come back to that in a minute...

 

Also, while I agree Santander probably isn't the Orioles long-term RFer, that's not because he couldn't be.  He's here, if you like him he's probably an easy extension candidate.. I've said this before, a guy isn't a piece of your future unless you're willing to commit 10+M in future a FA year...would you do that for Santander?  You could probably argue the next 4 years are 4/27M, get a first FA year at 11M and you have something of a profile that looks like...2.5 /5.0/ 7.5 /10.0 /11.0 /4M b/o on additional team options....so that's around 5/40.

 

Most people here wouldn't consider Santander the longer term option because we think Heston Kjerstad has the higher upside/profile.  We dream on Kjerstad (fine) but if he's the player Santander (GG finalist, .850+ OPS) was last year, that would be incredible.  Again, you don't need to have Kjrestad to find Kjerstad.  Selling a myth. 



#17 weird-O

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 03:29 PM

I'm typing this under the assumption that all this is just speculation and fodder for the slowest portion of the baseball writing year. 

 

I find it hard to believe that any trade partner is going to give a "haul" for AS. Unless haul = quantity, not quality return. In which case, no thanks. With that said, trading a guy with 4 years of team control, whose stats are trending in the right direction, just seems like a kick the can move. But that is the Angelos way, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen.    


Good news! I saw a dog today.


#18 Mike B

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 03:45 PM

John and Lou Angelos have a perspective on when that point is.

Mike Elias also has a perspective on when that point is.

Fans have a perspective on that.

 

Assuming those 3 perspectives are aligned, imo, would be a mistake.

No question about it.  I would hope that the Angelos brothers and Elias are close, in their view as to when the team is ready to move to the compete mode.  

As a fan, I think they are close to the time when the "kick the can, down the road" approach is no longer reasonable or acceptable.

If guys like Rutschman, GRod, Hall, Diaz, Kjerstad on scheduled for arrival in 2022, then that is when the team should begin to be actively acquiring "now" talent.  Santander would still have 3 years of control, so unless something real comes back in a deal, he should be at least be given a chance to be part of 2022.

 

My issue, is the Orioles do not seem to be willing to pay for those years of control.  Santander may eventually get to a point, where his cost outweighs his production but at 2.4 M, he is a bargain, IMO.


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#19 dude

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 04:02 PM

You need the right teams to generate interest....that's what we should be exploring.  Let's come back to that in a minute...

 

The notion that the Marlins are looking for a corner OFer should have nothing to do with Santander.  They have upper prospects in JJ Bleday and Jesus Sanchez that should be manning the OF corners for the Fish sooner than later so paying for the control portion and potential projection of Santander would seem dumb.  Maybe if they gave him away and the Marlins flip him for more later.

 

The teams that made the absolute most sense were the White sox and Nationals.

 

-----------

Not sure why the WhiteSox are paying guys like Hendricks and Eaton what they are paying them, but that's fine, the over-pay profile works fine in other ways too.  Eloy's defense gets trashed in LF and many view him as a DH so it's possible, even after the signing of Eaton, that Santander could still fit there.

 

I still want Madrigal, 2B is a fairly easy position to find reasonable production and Madrigal has more to do with something else.

 

------------

The Nationals just signed Schwarber to play the OF for 1-year and 10M....Santander is a >>>>>> fit for that team than Schwarber.

 

Leave Soto in LF, add a switch-hitting GG finalist in RF and get him reasonably locked up as you look at cost profiles for locking up guys like Turner and Soto.  DC lacks anything that looks like quality OF options near-term so adding now performance is valuable to them.  For that manner, Mancini is likely getting traded sooner than later too, so a Santander/Mancini package to DC is worth a lot to them.  Now quality offensive and defensive performance with better cost and control than what they did.

 

DC has a lot of younger pitching.  That's fine.  again, not trying to help John and Lou, but there's another way that DC could help them more than any prospects.

 

-----------

 

Other teams would certainly be in play for Santander.

 

The Mets are interesting and depending on how committed they are waiting for the DH to come to the NL, maybe you could work something around Dom Smith.

 

The Indians had the worst OF production in MLB last year and Santander would be a good fit there.   There's lots of way to work with the Indians for Jones or Freeman or Josh and Bo Naylor or Rosario+, lot's of ways.

 

Cardinals would likely be looking for the Santander type upgrade as they try to figure out how to improve their offense from last season.

 

The Angels are also an interesting fit (mentioned them before as part of the Seager Plan, you know, if we ever cared) and Santander is a great fit with the complexity of their roster (Pujols age, Ohtani management, Upton age).  I'd push for Marsh or maybe Adams and they take they take Cobb's money.

----------

 

Bottom line, IF you're going to trade a guy that shows some good value, you leverage that value for something specific as part of a Plan, not just volume



#20 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 22 January 2021 - 09:14 AM

MASN: Wondering whether it makes sense to keep or trade Santander

https://www.masnspor...-santander.html






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