264 replies to this topic

[85Knight]

The 89% chance is (I THINK) based on teams not sitting their players, which...I mean...

I think that 89% drops to 50% if the Bills and Steelers rest their players. Here we are rooting for the Steelers and hoping they don't have any major injuries tonight. Talking about sacrilegious. I got them beating the Colts next weekend. After that things could get pretty shaky because I don't have the Dolphins losing to the Raiders.

[Mackus]

The 89% chance is (I THINK) based on teams not sitting their players, which...I mean...

 

 

I think that 89% drops to 50% if the Bills and Steelers rest their players. Here we are rooting for the Steelers and hoping they don't have any major injuries tonight. Talking about sacrilegious. I got them beating the Colts next weekend. After that things could get pretty shaky because I don't have the Dolphins losing to the Raiders.

 

I assume that ESPN is putting a percentage on how likely it is for each team to win each game.  Then applying the various combinations of wins/losses that each team needs to make the playoffs.

 

But from just a statistical standpoint, there are 6 more games the Ravens need one of which to be a loss.  (0.70) ^ 6 = .118.  So if each team is 70% likely to win their games, then there is a 11.2% chance they win all 6 and the Ravens stay home.  On the inverse, there is a 88.8% chance one of those games is lost.

 

If you wanna say the Bills and Steelers rest in week 17 and those games are 100% wins (which is likely not true), then it's 4 contests.  (0.70) ^ 4 = 0.24 or 24% likely that all the games are wins and the Ravens stay home.

 

The 3-0 week this week for the direct competition definitely makes things much less improbable moving forward.

[Old Man]

Weird seeing Washington with a losing record on top the NFL East and a good shot at the title, and the Ravens are in 3rd place in their division, needing others to beat teams for them to get in.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Steelers will definitely be playing all out to beat Ind next week. BTW the focus is on Indy, Cle, and Mia but Tenn has to go to GB and at Hou to end the year. They might get stuck on 10. I dont expect Hou to roll over for them in Week 17.

[85Knight]

Steelers will definitely be playing all out to beat Ind next week. BTW the focus is on Indy, Cle, and Mia but Tenn has to go to GB and at Hou to end the year. They might get stuck on 10. I dont expect Hou to roll over for them in Week 17.

That's a good point especially if the Colts beat the Steelers and the Titans get pushed into the wildcard slot. We would need them to lose to the Texans to beat them out.

[cprenegade]

I assume that ESPN is putting a percentage on how likely it is for each team to win each game.  Then applying the various combinations of wins/losses that each team needs to make the playoffs.

 

But from just a statistical standpoint, there are 6 more games the Ravens need one of which to be a loss.  (0.70) ^ 6 = .118.  So if each team is 70% likely to win their games, then there is a 11.2% chance they win all 6 and the Ravens stay home.  On the inverse, there is a 88.8% chance one of those games is lost.

 

If you wanna say the Bills and Steelers rest in week 17 and those games are 100% wins (which is likely not true), then it's 4 contests.  (0.70) ^ 4 = 0.24 or 24% likely that all the games are wins and the Ravens stay home.

 

The 3-0 week this week for the direct competition definitely makes things much less improbable moving forward.

 

That is statistically correct, but then can't you apply that same logic to the Ravens remaining schedule?  Even if you say the Ravens are 80% likely to win their games wouldn't that only be roughly a 50% chance the Ravens win out over the last 3?  (.80)^3     Or going back to after the Steeler loss, the odds that the Ravens would win out over the last 5 would have only been 32%.   Again, assuming an 80% chance of winning any individual game.  

[Mike B]

Weird seeing Washington with a losing record on top the NFL East and a good shot at the title, and the Ravens are in 3rd place in their division, needing others to beat teams for them to get in.

It happens every year.

 

The NFC East is this years waste of time.

[JordanKough]

I'm wondering if there has ever been a year with 3 weeks left that the 2 (or 3 best) WC teams going all won out to end the year. 

 

Maybe that's random chance, but for 4 teams over 12 games, regardless of opponent, to win all of those games is just really unlikely. 

 

For example, there is no 3-game stretch at any point this season of which one of Miami, Ind, and Cle haven't lost one game among the three of them. 

 

With non-competitive games getting mixed in there, that confounds things a bit. But the Jets just beat the Rams. It's the NFL. 3 weeks for 4 teams to all need to win and all win, would be a truly 2020 way for the Ravens season to end. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

What would really be a kick in the balls is if the NFCs 2 seed only has 11 wins.

[Nigel Tufnel]

It happens every year.

 

The NFC East is this years waste of time.

 

It would actually be kind of awesome if the NFC East champion was 6-10.

[Huddle It Up Films]

I know it bugs a lot of people but I don't mind the format even when bad Division winners get in. Makes more games meaningful and there's only 16 games in the first place. It would be interesting to go back and look at some years like this to see how many more games wouldn't matter. And also which teams might rest starters, change QBs or have their bags packed and mail it in earlier.

[Mackus]

That is statistically correct, but then can't you apply that same logic to the Ravens remaining schedule?

 

Sure, but the case I'm interested in is the Ravens being in or out if they win out, so don't really need to determine what the Ravens odds are of doing that.  It's an underlying assumption of my data set.

 

If the Ravens lose either of their remaining games I'll be too angry to do any more math, so it's a moot point.

[Mackus]

I know it bugs a lot of people but I don't mind the format even when bad Division winners get in. Makes more games meaningful and there's only 16 games in the first place. It would be interesting to go back and look at some years like this to see how many more games wouldn't matter. And also which teams might rest starters, change QBs or have their bags packed and mail it in earlier.

 

I think each division winner should get in, but not necessarily get a home game.

[Huddle It Up Films]

Last week I wasn't worried at all about not getting in if we won out but now I'm feeling it a little. Nine games would've had to gone wrong and now that's down to six.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Things got a little more stressful but to be fair all the favorites won. Next week Pitt will be favored over Ind. That's probably the most likely loss on paper. It would get real stressful if we dont control our own destiny at the end of next week because we dont know how Buffalo and Pitt will approach their week 17 games against Cle and Miami respectively.

[Roll Tide]

Last week I wasn't worried at all about not getting in if we won out but now I'm feeling it a little. Nine games would've had to gone wrong and now that's down to six.

Miami has Vegas and Indy has the Steelers...I like those odds. Plus the Jets busted their 0-for streak. 

[Pedro Cerrano]

Sure, but the case I'm interested in is the Ravens being in or out if they win out, so don't really need to determine what the Ravens odds are of doing that. It's an underlying assumption of my data set.

If the Ravens lose either of their remaining games I'll be too angry to do any more math, so it's a moot point.

I hear chicks dig angry mathematicians.

[mrbig1]

I hear chicks dig angry mathematicians.

Well that leaves me out. I have to take off my shoes to count past 10.

[cprenegade]

Last week I wasn't worried at all about not getting in if we won out but now I'm feeling it a little. Nine games would've had to gone wrong and now that's down to six.

 

True, and in reality of those six, two of those games involve teams the Ravens need to lose going against the Jets and the Jags.  That could actually push the number of games that need to go wrong down to 4.  

[GabeFerguson]

The Steelers could legitimately lose out and the Ravens will be on the outside looking in unless Miami loses