Played around with this model a little more.
https://projects.fiv...fl-predictions/
I'll try to make it simple, but I'm not counting ties. Just wins and losses.
Week 15: Raiders about out of the picture after losing last night.
If the Ravens win out:
The only way they are eliminated are if the Colts, Browns and Dolphins win out AND the Bills win one of their next two games while losing the Dolphins in week 17, AND the Titans win any two of their next three.
If Colts, Browns, Dolphins win out and Bills lose out, Ravens are in regardless of the Titans.
If Colts, Browns, Dolphins win out and Bills win their next two games, losing to the Dolphins in week 17, Ravens are in if the Titans lose two of their last three.
If Colts, Browns, Titans, Bills win out, Ravens are in because it means Dolphins suffered a loss to the Bills.
If Dolphins, Titans win out, Bills go 2-1 with the Dolphins loss, Ravens are in if either the Colts OR Browns lose just one game of their combined six remaining.
If the Ravens lose to the Giants:
It really comes down to the Dolphins. Believe it or not, a loss there means the Ravens still get in even if the Colts, Browns, Titans, Bills win out, and Dolphins win their next two, losing to the Bills in week 17 in this scenario.
Colts, Browns, Titans can win out, Dolphins beat Bills, but lose one of their next two, Ravens are in.
If Dolphins win out, Ravens need Colts OR Browns to lose two of their last three, OR Ravens need Titans to lose out.
Not even going down the road with what happens if the Ravens lose to the Jags or Bengals.
This model is better for mapping out seeding based on the results you input.
http://www.espn.com/...layoffs/machine
Hopefully some teams clear the way a little this week.