397 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

How is DL Hall still a top 100 guy?

Baseball America doesn’t graduate guys until they hit 50 ML innings or 130 ML at bats. Everyone else seems to use those metrics plus 45 days of service so he’s only eligible for them.

As for his talent making him “eligible”, he showed closer stuff late last year. If he’s a reliever he still has Hader upside.

[BaltBird 24]

Have to think a lot of our top 10 guys will be graduating fairly soon.... Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Cowser....

Who's the next wave? Basallo for sure. Horvath, Beavers, Fabian, Tavera, Alemyda?

[Mike B]

Baseball America doesn’t graduate guys until they hit 50 ML innings or 130 ML at bats. Everyone else seems to use those metrics plus 45 days of service so he’s only eligible for them.

As for his talent making him “eligible”, he showed closer stuff late last year. If he’s a reliever he still has Hader upside.

It would not surprise me a bit, if Hall ended the season the Orioles closer.

[BobPhelan]

Have to think a lot of our top 10 guys will be graduating fairly soon.... Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Cowser....

Who's the next wave? Basallo for sure. Horvath, Beavers, Fabian, Tavera, Alemyda?

Basallo, Bradfield, Beavers, Horvath, Baumeister, Seth Johnson, 3 new draft picks before the second round, if there are any international breakouts.

[BaltBird 24]

Johnson already 25 turning 26 by the end of the season. Hopefully he's off to a quick start and in Baltimore by summer.

[BobPhelan]

Johnson already 25 turning 26 by the end of the season. Hopefully he's off to a quick start and in Baltimore by summer.

Still young career innings wise and has electric stuff.

[BaltBird 24]

Still young career innings wise and has electric stuff.

Sort of the same boat as Bradish. Young career innings wise, but a little older for a guy who's yet to make his debut.

Hopefully similar results. Was the stuff back at the end of last year?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The problem with Johnson is '24 is prob a take it slow build back up here. I wouldnt expect him to be particularly sharp this year. At least not until well into the season. Thats assuming the post surgery stuff is close to the same as it was pre surgery.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Baumeister is def an interesting arm to track.  You can add Lord to that list  as well

[BaltBird 24]

Also interested to see is Baumler can finally put together a healthy season.

[Mackus]

It's gonna be a 40-man roster bloodbath after this upcoming season. Literally every pick in 2021 was college except for Creed Willems, so everybody needs to be added or else they'll be exposed to Rule 5. Povich and McDermott also were '21 draftees. Also will have to protect Mayo and Baumler from 2020 (plus guys like Haskin who were eligible last year but went undrafted).

[TwentyThirtyFive]

It's gonna be a 40-man roster bloodbath after this upcoming season. Literally every pick in 2021 was college except for Creed Willems, so everybody needs to be added or else they'll be exposed to Rule 5. Povich and McDermott also were '21 draftees. Also will have to protect Mayo and Baumler from 2020 (plus guys like Haskin who were eligible last year but went undrafted).

Yup. Finally a true crunch. Its why Im convinced a trade is imminent.

[BobPhelan]

Sort of the same boat as Bradish. Young career innings wise, but a little older for a guy who's yet to make his debut.

Hopefully similar results. Was the stuff back at the end of last year?

 

Yeah, stuff is back. Was mentioned to me that he touched 100 mph at the end of the season.

[BaltBird 24]

Yeah, stuff is back. Was mentioned to me that he touched 100 mph at the end of the season.

Love hearing that.

[BSLMikeLowe]

It's gonna be a 40-man roster bloodbath after this upcoming season. Literally every pick in 2021 was college except for Creed Willems, so everybody needs to be added or else they'll be exposed to Rule 5. Povich and McDermott also were '21 draftees. Also will have to protect Mayo and Baumler from 2020 (plus guys like Haskin who were eligible last year but went undrafted).

 

But trading a couple of these guys now somehow presents an enormous challenge. Ok.

[mweb08]

It's gonna be a 40-man roster bloodbath after this upcoming season. Literally every pick in 2021 was college except for Creed Willems, so everybody needs to be added or else they'll be exposed to Rule 5. Povich and McDermott also were '21 draftees. Also will have to protect Mayo and Baumler from 2020 (plus guys like Haskin who were eligible last year but went undrafted).

Which is part of why your (and others) hypothetical asking what should they do if they don't get what they perceive to be full value on anyone and everyone (somehow) should still result in at least a trade or two.

[RichardZ]

Yeah, stuff is back. Was mentioned to me that he touched 100 mph at the end of the season.

The scoreboard gun registered 100 but I’m told it’s 2-4 mph hot. Still looks good though. At worst, he looks like a high leverage bullpen arm.

https://youtu.be/oDN...xnQWMExOmeUue1C

[JeremyStrain]

It's gonna be a 40-man roster bloodbath after this upcoming season. Literally every pick in 2021 was college except for Creed Willems, so everybody needs to be added or else they'll be exposed to Rule 5. Povich and McDermott also were '21 draftees. Also will have to protect Mayo and Baumler from 2020 (plus guys like Haskin who were eligible last year but went undrafted).

I just started thinking about this the other day too, and was wondering if maybe it wasn't factoring into signing FA a little bit. With the pitchers you can always add them to the pen, let them build experience and stretch them out to start when there's a chance. Back in the 80s and 90s this was super common for developing pitchers. Will they all be at 4 years pro this season? If they were taken in '21, then 22, 23 and 24 would only be 3 years, and they'd have one more before they have to be protected. IF they played in '21 when they were drafted, does that count as playing a year of pro? Like 2 months of a season? Honestly I've never really payed too close of attention to it cause so rarely do you see so many talented minors guys together at once.

 

The field side is already crowded, and is about to get a bit worse.

 

They really are going to HAVE to make a trade, and I'm sure teams know it and are demanding the moon because of it, just because they can't just go losing some of these kids to the rule 5. That would be horrible mismanagement. Gotta be a genuine improvement though. Still holding out hope for Burnes. Luzardo would be nice too, been a target of mine for a couple years...but MIA tends to ask for an awful lot, and just gut feeling, I feel like Burnes would do better here than he would.

[Mackus]

Will they all be at 4 years pro this season? If they were taken in '21, then 22, 23 and 24 would only be 3 years, and they'd have one more before they have to be protected. IF they played in '21 when they were drafted, does that count as playing a year of pro?

Yes, I'm talking about the crunch after 2024. So for 2025, which will be 4 years after the 2021 draft.

And yes, the clock starts ticking when they are signed and includes the year they were drafted. We had to add all the 2020 College draftees this off-season, or risk exposing them like Haskin, even though none of those guys played at all that year.

[JeremyStrain]

Yes, I'm talking about the crunch after 2024. So for 2025, which will be 4 years after the 2021 draft.

And yes, the clock starts ticking when they are signed and includes the year they were drafted. We had to add all the 2020 College draftees this off-season, or risk exposing them like Haskin, even though none of those guys played at all that year.

Gotcha. Yeah the wording is tricky in the actual rule, it says AFTER four years of playing pro, but I wasn't sure if they meant to the day, like if they started July '21, they hit it July '24 and then for that following season, or if they started counting pro seasons that following year, so March '22 which would mean they start year four March '25 and it'd be in 2026.

 

Had it in the back of my head, especially when they went so heavy on field players that it'd be an issue sooner or later.