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2021 MLB Draft


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#61 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 16 April 2021 - 02:12 PM

Keith Law recently posted his top 50 list.  Here's his top 10:

 

1. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas

3. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

4. Henry Davis, C, Louisville

5. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

6. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

7. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) HS

8. Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) HS

9. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

10. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS



#62 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 16 April 2021 - 02:21 PM

Law has Jaden Hill at 25:

 

25. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

Hill is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, taking him from a potential top-10 pick to someone’s late first/comp round overpay. We’ve seen plenty of TJ recipients or pitchers who needed the surgery go in the first round in the last 10 years, including Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito and Jeff Hoffman, but Hill had trouble staying healthy before his elbow blew out and he might slip into the sandwich round instead.



#63 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 16 April 2021 - 03:38 PM

Top 3 on this list will almost surely be gone at 5. Still have my eyes on the prep shortstops. Bachman is interesting to me as an underslot option.

#64 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 16 April 2021 - 04:47 PM

If Mayer is there he’s the guy.

#65 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 16 April 2021 - 04:50 PM


If Mayer is there he’s the guy.

I think so too but Im just now listening to your podcast and I tend to agree he's seperating himself as a Top 4 guy. Not sure what Elias will do if thats the top 4. Im not a big fan of any of the college bats. I get Fabian has terrific power and fits Elias's profile but I hate the swing and miss and the fact hes a corner OF. The kid from BC is too small for my taste.
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#66 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 May 2021 - 08:59 AM

CBS Sports: Top 10 MLB Draft prospects 2021: Jack Leiter still No. 1, Vanderbilt teammate Kumar Rocker in top five

https://www.cbssport...er-in-top-five/



#67 dude

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Posted 02 May 2021 - 11:27 AM

My guess would be the Orioles go further under slot based on this top10.

 

The Jud Fabian struggles could play into their hands where they feel like they can get a guy they like at 1-5 and Fabian could freefall if he keeps a signing demand.  The Orioles might be able to meet that demand latter in the draft with a big under slot early.

 

We've seen McLain and Fabian in the top 5 over the last year and you could write a scenario where you get both.



#68 dude

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Posted 02 May 2021 - 11:32 AM

I'll add this one more thing.

 

You get the early pick and you want to do the best you can with it....so no issues leveraging the value in whatever way you can, but does anyone look at this list or even last years list and say to themselves..."there's no way we can win in the future if we don't get this guy".

 

I like Lieter, Lawler, Rocker and Mayer....it's easy to dream on them, but you can win in the future without any of them.



#69 dude

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Posted 02 May 2021 - 11:38 AM

What will be interesting is if someone like Rocker falls to 5.  My guess would be the Orioles pass regardless.

 

Lieter won't be there and it he was, there's a reason that the Orioles would pass on too (injury or something crazy).

 

Rocker was a consensus #1 a year ago (I like the reference to 'prospect fatigue' in the article) and I said this before, but my guess is the Orioles are hoping he's gone so they don't have to pass on him (my reference before was being ok sliding a few spots to remove the pitchers from the board)



#70 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 May 2021 - 07:23 AM

ESPN / Kiley McDaniel Mock Draft 1.0
https://www.espn.com...-1-overall-pick

 

 

5. Baltimore Orioles

Henry Davis, C, Louisville

Davis may be the best hit/power/performance combination in the draft, and he has a real shot, in baseball's automatic strike-calling future, to do it at the most valuable position on the field. He's not a very good receiver, but can catch the ball well enough to stay at the position. Offensively, Davis has plus-plus raw power, with an effective, strength-based swing that has crushed the ACC this year. GM Mike Elias has been in to see House a few times, and the O's are rumored to be high on Mayer as well, with almost no chance they take a pitcher at this pick. Seriously, look at their last two drafts.

If you're wondering if Adley Rutschman means the O's won't take Davis, I don't think it does. Davis has played a little bit of third base in the past (and done so capably), and even rotating the two of them between DH, first base and maybe left field should work to get both bats in the lineup. In the batter's box alone, I think Davis is better than Heston Kjerstad -- who Baltimore took with the No. 2 overall pick last year as a right fielder.

 

 

 

I don't agree with McDaniel that the Orioles will not take a pitcher.
Yes, I think Elias and Co are biased towards bats over pitchers... but as Elias pointed out the other day on MASN, he inherited a system that had gone heavy on pitching in recent drafts, and that gave him further ammunition to go after additional bats in his first two drafts with the Orioles.



#71 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 11 May 2021 - 12:54 PM

 Law's #6 prospect, and maybe the top pitcher available with the O's pick.

 

Gunnar Hoglund has a tear in his UCL. He'll have Tommy John surgery on May 18 from Dr. James Andrews. Horrible, horrible blow for #OleMiss baseball and the really, really bright future of a potential top 10 MLB Draft pick.


#72 Mackus

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Posted 11 May 2021 - 01:22 PM

 Law's #6 prospect, and maybe the top pitcher available with the O's pick.

 

Gunnar Hoglund has a tear in his UCL. He'll have Tommy John surgery on May 18 from Dr. James Andrews. Horrible, horrible blow for #OleMiss baseball and the really, really bright future of a potential top 10 MLB Draft pick.

 

Idea that pops straight into my mind is going underslot at #5, take someone rated in the teens who'll sign for $3-4M instead of $6M and throw that extra $2-3M at Hoglund and take him with #41 or #65.



#73 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 11 May 2021 - 06:30 PM

ESPN / Kiley McDaniel Mock Draft 1.0
https://www.espn.com...-1-overall-pick


5. Baltimore Orioles
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Davis may be the best hit/power/performance combination in the draft, and he has a real shot, in baseball's automatic strike-calling future, to do it at the most valuable position on the field. He's not a very good receiver, but can catch the ball well enough to stay at the position. Offensively, Davis has plus-plus raw power, with an effective, strength-based swing that has crushed the ACC this year. GM Mike Elias has been in to see House a few times, and the O's are rumored to be high on Mayer as well, with almost no chance they take a pitcher at this pick. Seriously, look at their last two drafts.
If you're wondering if Adley Rutschman means the O's won't take Davis, I don't think it does. Davis has played a little bit of third base in the past (and done so capably), and even rotating the two of them between DH, first base and maybe left field should work to get both bats in the lineup. In the batter's box alone, I think Davis is better than Heston Kjerstad -- who Baltimore took with the No. 2 overall pick last year as a right fielder.



I don't agree with McDaniel that the Orioles will not take a pitcher.
Yes, I think Elias and Co are biased towards bats over pitchers... but as Elias pointed out the other day on MASN, he inherited a system that had gone heavy on pitching in recent drafts, and that gave him further ammunition to go after additional bats in his first two drafts with the Orioles.

If we didn't have Adley I'd be penciling Davis in to the Os. I like Davis a lot so maybe Elias makes it work.

#74 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 May 2021 - 07:34 AM

Balt Sun: Two months from MLB draft, what type of talent might be available to the Orioles with the fifth overall pick?



#75 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 May 2021 - 06:44 PM

Dallas News: Mock Draft Roundup

https://www.dallasne...t-no-2-overall/



#76 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 23 May 2021 - 07:13 PM

So in addition to the big 4 it sounds like Davis, Jobe, and House have kind of seperating themselves too. Think we are sitting in a pretty good spot as long as we take one of those 7 guys.

#77 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 23 May 2021 - 07:49 PM

Btw Jobe sounds super intriguing.

#78 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 23 May 2021 - 09:46 PM

Btw Jobe sounds super intriguing.


No chance Elias takes a HS pitcher IMO. I’m honestly not sure if he takes Rocker or Leiter if they’re available.

#79 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 23 May 2021 - 10:48 PM


No chance Elias takes a HS pitcher IMO. I’m honestly not sure if he takes Rocker or Leiter if they’re available.

If I was a betting man Id bet on us taking House. That said, I read somewhere recently that the Os have been watching Jobe closely. We shall see. Mayer and Lawler are locks to be gone. So we are looking at Davis, Leiter, Rocker, Jobe, and House if we take one of those 7. I wount be happy if we go underslot.

#80 Mackus

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Posted 24 May 2021 - 07:20 AM

Underslot is the smarter and safer play, IMO. Last year and this year especially with the limited scouting opportunities which likely make ordering the talent correctly even more impossible than it usually is.

Of course last year we go underslot and then one of the guys we split the savings on immediately needs Tommy John. Whatever you do, you're likely to fail.




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