577 replies to this topic

[dude]

I'd like to see them continue with the trend of drafting guys who actually have some defensive value and ability to be more than LF/1B/DH.  They had an interesting discussion with Brian Roberts during the game yesterday. Draft them SS was the bottom line.

 

I get the thought, but I don't think it has the same merit as you move up.  It's a line.

 

All of the best players in HS play SS, because they're better than all of the other players and SS is important.

 

Once you're in college, you are pooling excellent players and you'll start to move with your limitations.

 

Few of the MI that the Orioles are pooling are projected as impact offensive players.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: Orioles, out of playoff race but not among the league’s worst, are in draft pick limbo for 2021

 

 

A report from ESPN on Tuesday said the 2021 draft order would most likely be the standings in reverse, the same way they are every year, though the March agreement on resumption of play left that ambiguous.

 

Without winning any more of their five games, they could pick as high as second, though the odds of that happening and the Texas Rangers or Arizona Diamondbacks winning a bunch of games this week aren’t high.

 

On the other end of the spectrum would be the possibility that the Orioles end up with the best record of the non-playoff teams in the American League and end up picking 12th or 13th overall, which would be the exact kind of middle ground teams try to avoid.

[Mackus]

Can only read the headline, but I imagine I would dislike that article.

[Old Man]

Can only read the headline, but I imagine I would dislike that article.

If you fire up an incognito window session, copy and paste the link, you can read articles hidden behind paywalls.

[Ruzious]

Balt Sun: Orioles, out of playoff race but not among the league’s worst, are in draft pick limbo for 2021

 

 

A report from ESPN on Tuesday said the 2021 draft order would most likely be the standings in reverse, the same way they are every year, though the March agreement on resumption of play left that ambiguous.

 

Without winning any more of their five games, they could pick as high as second, though the odds of that happening and the Texas Rangers or Arizona Diamondbacks winning a bunch of games this week aren’t high.

 

On the other end of the spectrum would be the possibility that the Orioles end up with the best record of the non-playoff teams in the American League and end up picking 12th or 13th overall, which would be the exact kind of middle ground teams try to avoid.

 

I don't think this is any surprise.  I mean, they're obviously basing the post-season teams on the regular season performance, so it makes sense - at least to me - to base the draft on the same.  I don't see any other method making any sense whatsoever.  

 

And the O's have certainly been doing a good job lately of making their picks look better. 

 

My impression of this draft is that there's not a huge deal in losing out on getting one of the first couple of picks.  Is that a fair view? 

 

If I had my druthers, I hope the O's get a pitcher in the first round.  Our last draft was short on them.    

[Il BuonO]

If I had my druthers, I hope the O's get a pitcher in the first round.  Our last draft was short on them.    

They could have had a couple good ones in either Lacy or Hancock. I was partial to Lacy being a TX kid who I’d seen quite a bit of last year.

[BobPhelan]

Elias clearly prefers college bats early in the draft. I'm sure there could be an exception but thats what I would continue to expect.

[Il BuonO]

Elias clearly prefers college bats early in the draft. I'm sure there could be an exception but thats what I would continue to expect.

I agree with that.

[dude]

I guess this was expected by most, but MLB announced the official draft order.

 

From that article, top 15 college and top 15 HS prospects.

 

Orioles draft 5th, as expected.

 

I think I'm still sticking with Matt McLain.

[JeremyStrain]

I wouldn't pay attention to much about this draft until next spring. Without a real season this year, the reads on most of these players are really outdated.

 

The development on a player REALLY changes from one season to the next, so many of these guys are going 2 years from the last time they really got read or looked at, and some of them are going to be drastically different.

 

I'd expect Kumar and Leiter to still be in the mix at the top, assuming they don't pick up injuries because of this weird year, but after that, any guy you think is going to be there right now, I would NOT put money on it. Either other guys not even on the radar are going to come out of nowhere, or in general the gap will get closed with these guys and others. Not to mention the HS kids that are TWO FULL YEARS more grown than any of these previews are counting on.

 

Moving the draft to July will give everyone a chance to get through their season and allow teams to get more eyes on these guys, but I will tell you these lists today will be VERY different from say June.

[dude]

Moving the draft to July ...

 

Meant to add that comment too.  

 

The article mentioned the top 10 rounds, but did not identify the total rounds in the draft.

[dude]

....because it's never too early for the first mock draft....top 10 picks.  Callis early top 10 Mock Draft

 

Has Orioles on Jaden Hill (RHP, LA ST)....I feel confident suggesting it won't be him (or any pitcher).

 

Sticking with Matt McLain (taken 6th here). 

[JeremyStrain]

Would love to see Jack Leiter. No real specific reason. I know they prefer hitters to pitchers, cause the fail rate is more favorable, but I think a young early eligible with some still upside is worth a shot. Will need to keep a pitching pipeline flowing, and I liked Leiter a lot out of HS.

[Mike B]

....because it's never too early for the first mock draft....top 10 picks.  Callis early top 10 Mock Draft

 

Has Orioles on Jaden Hill (RHP, LA ST)....I feel confident suggesting it won't be him (or any pitcher).

 

Sticking with Matt McLain (taken 6th here). 

Mclain fits the need that is for sure.    

Wow, it seems strange to see Boston picking before the Orioles.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Dont have a clue about any of these guys buy Mayer sounds intriguing.

[Mackus]

I think they'll be going underslot, take someone outside the consensus top-10, use the savings in later rounds.

[StephenCLoftus]

BSL: 2021 DRAFT Model Debut

https://baltimorespo...ft-model-debut/

[Mike in STL]

Good stuff.

You would know better than I, but I wouldn’t be so sure that we should write off Leiter since Elias has only drafted one non-senior pitcher in the first ten rounds. I remember from reading Astroball that one of the reasons Mike Trout fell in the draft was that it had been 40 years since a high school OF from Jersey amounted to anything of note in MLB. One of their edges from STL, to HOU, was to ignore trends like where a guy is from, their size, level of competition, because those weren’t good predictors of future performance. Alex Bregman to this day still wears the “They think I’m too small” chip on his shoulder. (Even though he was drafted high by the Astros).

May be just coincidence that Elias hasn’t drafted non-senior pitchers in his couple drafts here.

[Mackus]

You might have described it in past year's releases, but can you tell us a bit about the "probability" column and how that is determined?

[StephenCLoftus]

The Probability Column is the probability that the player makes the majors at some point. It's modeled jointly with the players progress throughout their first three complete years in organized baseball and their performance once they get to the majors.