441 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

Conner Byrne repeated it on MLBTR today as part of another update... Don't know if those reports are the 'clubhouse' reference that Bob and Jeremy are referring to. Elias and Hyde both said good things (after the trade) about him in the clubhouse.

...and the answer to half the questions seems to be 13 July

Who gives a fuck when the deal was completed.

Deals get completed early all the time.

It’s a stupid thing to keep grasping onto.

The completed a trade early for Manny last year. Show me where you said that was a mistake.

[SunspotRob]

Cashner 2 bad starts in a row against bad teams. Boston is regretting trading those two 17-year olds to us!! 

 

*sarcasm*

[Nigel Tufnel]

I mean, I guess it's hard to project 17 year olds, but it seems dumb to assume that a 17 year old definitely won't amount to anything.  Mike Trout was once 17.  Willie Mays was once 17.

[Mackus]

Dude if you don't think the Orioles could give Cashner away for nothing then how are you possibly arguing that he was a commodity and we didn't get enough back for him?

The incongruity there is very obvious. It's impossible to explain away and nobody could possibly hold both opinions. Clearly the first thing is ridiculous. Of course someone would've claimed Cashner if the O's put him on release waivers.

[mdrunning]

Cashner 2 bad starts in a row against bad teams. Boston is regretting trading those two 17-year olds to us!! 

 

*sarcasm*

Cashner has been historically shaky initially whenever he changes addresses. It was that way with the Marlins, the Padres, the Rangers, the Orioles, and he now appears to be continuing that trend in Boston. He usually returns to the mean after about six starts or so.

[SportsGuy]

Conner Byrne repeated it on MLBTR today as part of another update... Don't know if those reports are the 'clubhouse' reference that Bob and Jeremy are referring to. Elias and Hyde both said good things (after the trade) about him in the clubhouse.

...and the answer to half the questions seems to be 13 July

And btw, if that one report is true (who knows if it is or not) and teams did have concerns about his makeup, don’t you think impacts his value?

And don’t you think that would have impacted his value if they did the deal a week or 2 later?

[dude]

I mean, I guess it's hard to project 17 year olds, but it seems dumb to assume that a 17 year old definitely won't amount to anything.  Mike Trout was once 17.  Willie Mays was once 17.

 

Does it make sense to say that every player in MLB and MiL is or was 17....so maybe we should move to the next level of assessment in a discussion since your metric applies to 100% of the data set.

 

I don't think the projections of either Mike Trout of Elio Prado (or anyone else) is tied to the fact that they spent 365 days at 17.

[SportsGuy]

Since the trade:

11 Ip, 9 runs, 4 homers, 4 walks, 9 Ks and 14 H allowed.

ERA up over 1/3 of a run.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Does it make sense to say that every player in MLB and MiL is or was 17....so maybe we should move to the next level of assessment in a discussion where your metric applies to 100% of the data set.

 

I don't think the projections of either Mike Trout of Elio Prado (or anyone else) is tied to the fact that they spent 365 days at 17.

 

Are you completely against any international signings, since all of those guys are 16 or 17?  Of course not, because you think the O's are smart enough to judge talent.  Why would these two 17 years olds be any different?

[dude]

Are you completely against any international signings, since all of those guys are 16 or 17?  Of course not, because you think the O's are smart enough to judge talent.  Why would these two 17 years olds be any different?

 

smh

[dude]

Since the trade:

11 Ip, 9 runs, 4 homers, 4 walks, 9 Ks and 14 H allowed.

ERA up over 1/3 of a run.

 

My guess is the RedSox would be pretty comfortable with the trade if he goes 5+ IP in his starts.

 

1st start is still going to be a lot emotions, 2nd start back in Baltimore.  

 

Boston is likely more concerned about getting 1-hit by Ashur Wojochowski and the worst bullpen around.

 

fwiw, I couldn't care less how he does now.  I know it's part of this discussion but it's mostly OBE.

[SportsGuy]

My guess is the RedSox would be pretty comfortable with the trade if he goes 5+ IP in his starts.
 
1st start is still going to be a lot emotions, 2nd start back in Baltimore.  
 
Boston is likely more concerned about getting 1-hit by Ashur Wojochowski and the worst bullpen around.
 
fwiw, I couldn't care less how he does now.  I know it's part of this discussion but it's mostly OBE.

I agree Boston wants innings.

But the value of those innings is only so much.

You are placing a value on them that simply doesn’t exist, no matter how many 1000s of words you want to write about it.

[dude]

Dude if you don't think the Orioles could give Cashner away for nothing then how are you possibly arguing that he was a commodity and we didn't get enough back for him?

The incongruity there is very obvious. It's impossible to explain away and nobody could possibly hold both opinions. Clearly the first thing is ridiculous. Of course someone would've claimed Cashner if the O's put him on release waivers.

 

Apologies, but most if this is getting old for me about 10 pages ago.  Let me back up 2 pages on this comment.

 

The Orioles want something for Cashner.

If you trade him to Boston, you have to eat money to make it work.

If you just wanted to save money, yes, he would likely be claimed by somebody, even on 13 July (I'm changing my maybe to a yes)

The Somebody that claims him, might likely not be one of the trade teams (heck, someone would claim to flip him in trade with time to the deadline...like Detroit who would then eat money and flip him to Boston or whatever) because they aren't committing the spot and money to Cashner now when they are looking at something different, although it's certainly possible that someone looks at that as a value moves and goes ahead and does it and gets out of their other trade scenarios.

----------

If you waited, the number of teams that would claim him would likely be higher because not every team looking for help would have traded for someone (more demand than supply).  That doesn't matter though because you only need one team to claim him.

 

There would be little/no risk for the Orioles not saving money.

-----------

 

You seem to want to use the fact that they included money in the trade to support your assertions that they NEEDED to include money to get the prospect value of Prado and Romero (that's what you said earlier, right?...that you were glad they were including the money to acquire these guys because that shows a willingness to include money to get more value, therefore, Prado and Romero are 'more value'.

[Mackus]

You seem to want to use the fact that they included money in the trade to support your assertions that they NEEDED to include money to get the prospect value of Prado and Romero (that's what you said earlier, right?...that you were glad they were including the money to acquire these guys because that shows a willingness to include money to get more value, therefore, Prado and Romero are 'more value'.

I'm not saying they needed to include money to get these guys specifically. But otherwise, yes, essentially.

I am using the fact that they included money to show that the O's like these guys and value them as being worth (at the very least) that level of financial investment. If the Red Sox released both players, the O's would've paid that same ~$1.5M to sign them if they could.

And likely they think they're worth more than that ~$1.5M, because I don't think even people like me who think Cashner wasn't worth all that much would argue he was worth nothing more than his remaining salary. He was a minor asset. Paying some money makes him more valuable. If they didn't like what they were getting back, they don't kick in the money.

[dude]

I've stated my position any number of times, which 1) I don't think is a big deal and 2) I haven't made a big deal about.

 

I'm not saying they needed to include money to get these guys specifically. But otherwise, yes, essentially.

I am using the fact that they included money to show that the O's like these guys and value them as being worth (at the very least) that level of financial investment. If the Red Sox released both players, the O's would've paid that same ~$1.5M to sign them if they could.

And likely they think they're worth more than that ~$1.5M, because I don't think even people like me who think Cashner wasn't worth all that much would argue he was worth nothing more than his remaining salary. He was a minor asset. Paying some money makes him more valuable. If they didn't like what they were getting back, they don't kick in the money.

 

I'm not suggesting they don't like the guys....but I think that overall assessment is off.

 

No worries though, go read the litany of things that have been said about me personally in this thread...apparently my disagreement with a position should validate whatever that position is/was.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Injury risk is never a garbage argument. You can always get hurt, especially as a pitcher.

Guess I didn't explain this well  enough. I think its a garbage argument in this case because:

 

1. Low risk Cashner was going to get hurt in another 2 or 3 starts.

 

2. What we would have lost out on if he did get hurt was no big deal.

 

Now since you thought we got a good return then yes you could say the injury risk was real.

[SportsGuy]

Guess I didn't explain this well  enough. I think its a garbage argument in this case because:
 
1. Low risk Cashner was going to get hurt in another 2 or 3 starts.
 
2. What we would have lost out on if he did get hurt was no big deal.
 
Now since you thought we got a good return then yes you could say the injury risk was real.

For you to say that it would have been no big deal if we lost out on the return is a pretty ignorant statement..but again, no doubt you would be complaining if they didn’t trade him. It’s what you do.

If they don’t trade Mancini this year and he has a bad year next year, you will say they should have dealt him but you aren’t really in favor of dealing him as of now.

[bmore_ken]

They had been negotiating with other teams and liked this deal the most.

Why is this so difficult to understand? The stupidity of this argument is mind boggling to me.

Exactly. I even posted a damn quote from Elias saying that

[SportsGuy]

We had talks with several teams, and Boston was the most serious and most aggressive. We ended up getting two very young players that we like.”


Had talks with SEVERAL teams.

https://www.google.c...-prospects/amp/

[BobPhelan]

Here's another thought. I found it interesting that both are from Caracas and from last years class (so recently left).

Hardest thing for the Orioles is to break into some of the relationships that other teams have more deeply established.

I haven't seen the 2020 IFA top50 yet (I looked with no results)....anyone top50 from Caracas?

Looked at the current list of signings and 8 of the 27 guys were from VEN.

Building brand in a region?

This is a great point. I think it played a role.

I’m with Rob, I would give the trade a 2 or 3 on your scale.