995 replies to this topic

[Ruzious]

I agree that Dj has a higher upside offensively, but his defense is pretty bad, and I think we will have better options as a DH, so it is hard to see DJ getting enough time to make a substansial jump.

 

This is where I am, and frankly - I'd rather have Diaz getting a chance on the Baltimore roster.  As far as ceiling goes, his is higher than DJ's, imo.  

[Il BuonO]

This is where I am, and frankly - I'd rather have Diaz getting a chance on the Baltimore roster.  As far as ceiling goes, his is higher than DJ's, imo.  

Yeah, I agree. I really like Stewart’s approach at the plate, always seems to have a good AB. But the defense (or lack thereof), sheesh.... awful. I’d go so far as to say Mountcastle looks better on defense and it’s not that close. Also, I have to believe Diaz is an all around better choice long term than Stewart.

I was hoping Stewart would finish with a flourish to pique another team’s interest, but there’s not enough of a track record there. Otherwise, trade him.

[dude]

I already mentioned in another thread I thought there were a couple pitchers in the top ten they could have gone after and another poster stated the preference of Elias to get position players. I agree it tends to look that way, but I think it’s more a result of strategy for the moment and an overall philosophy that avoids pitchers.

 

Elias has had little success with pitchers (Appel, Aiken) at the top of the draft and more success with the bats (Correa, Bregman).

 

I'd guess they're just more comfortable with bats, given their history. 

[Mike B]

Elias has had little success with pitchers (Appel, Aiken) at the top of the draft and more success with the bats (Correa, Bregman).

 

I'd guess they're just more comfortable with bats, given their history. 

Buy the arms, grow the bats??

[Il BuonO]

Buy the arms, grow the bats??

Kinda what Luhnow did when Elias worked for him. The thinking is with injuries and maturity at ML level it’s better to grab them when they’re through the development phase. Fill in the roster with home grown prospects who play the field.

[Il BuonO]

So, their 2020 record could conceivably get them to a tie for 4th in draft order. Anyone know what the tie breaker is for something like that? Head to head match ups or something else?

[Mackus]

So, their 2020 record could conceivably get them to a tie for 4th in draft order. Anyone know what the tie breaker is for something like that? Head to head match ups or something else?

Previous year's record. Worst drafts first.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Looks like top 5 for sure if we lose today. As high as 3?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If its last years record as tiebreaker and Im doing it right it looks like we are locked in between 4 and 6.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Austin Martin's slide continues down prospect boards. No power. Suspect avg and still doesnt really have a position.

[Mackus]

Was thinking about Mayo's promotion and how going underslot for Kjerstad helped us land him.

 

One of things I remember talking about pre-draft was how much harder it probably was to gauge the prospects in 2020 since everyone lost March thru the draft for things like completing their seasons, showcases, and workouts.  There are probably a bunch of top-10s that look like this 4 years after the draft, but here is the WAR by pick for the 2020 top-10:

 

(-1.8) - Spencer Torkelson

0.3- Heston Kjerstad 

0.5 - Max Meyer

N/A - Asa Lacy

(-0.7) - Austin Martin

(-0.4) - Emerson Hancock

0.5 - Nick Gonzalez

N/A - Robert Hassell

N/A - Zac Veen

4.0 - Reid Detmers

 

Garrett Crochet went #11 and has 5.7 WAR.  Jordan Westburg went 30th and has 3.6 WAR, 3rd best in the whole first round class right now.

 

But a combined negative WAR for the top-9 picks seems pretty crazy.   Some of these guys are still strong prospects.  Max Meyer is #79 and Zac Veen is #81.  Kjerstad just graduated and was top-30 or so.  But oof.  Seems like a real bad showing, wonder how much of that was due to guys not separating themselves throughout the Spring and how much that matters.

[dude]

All of that is fine and if that's the approach, cool, let's hope it pays off....

 

For the record, I like there approach** and I think it has paid off.  You never get to settle and you have to do it with the next wave and the next wave, but unlike the lack of overall success in those '12-'16 drafts, they certainly have developed a better track record from 2019.

[BaltBird 24]

2019 and 2020 drafts were particularly insane. 2021 and 2022 very good. Wasn't impressed much with 2023, but it's early and the later arms look promising.

[BobPhelan]

2019 and 2020 drafts were particularly insane. 2021 and 2022 very good. Wasn't impressed much with 2023, but it's early and the later arms look promising.

Got a ton of good pitching from the 2023 draft. And 1.5 seasons of Zach Eflin.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Was thinking about Mayo's promotion and how going underslot for Kjerstad helped us land him.

 

One of things I remember talking about pre-draft was how much harder it probably was to gauge the prospects in 2020 since everyone lost March thru the draft for things like completing their seasons, showcases, and workouts.  There are probably a bunch of top-10s that look like this 4 years after the draft, but here is the WAR by pick for the 2020 top-10:

 

(-1.8) - Spencer Torkelson

0.3- Heston Kjerstad 

0.5 - Max Meyer

N/A - Asa Lacy

(-0.7) - Austin Martin

(-0.4) - Emerson Hancock

0.5 - Nick Gonzalez

N/A - Robert Hassell

N/A - Zac Veen

4.0 - Reid Detmers

 

Garrett Crochet went #11 and has 5.7 WAR.  Jordan Westburg went 30th and has 3.6 WAR, 3rd best in the whole first round class right now.

 

But a combined negative WAR for the top-9 picks seems pretty crazy.   Some of these guys are still strong prospects.  Max Meyer is #79 and Zac Veen is #81.  Kjerstad just graduated and was top-30 or so.  But oof.  Seems like a real bad showing, wonder how much of that was due to guys not separating themselves throughout the Spring and how much that matters.

Mack bringing that good good. Love it. 

[BaltBird 24]

Got a ton of good pitching from the 2023 draft. And 1.5 seasons of Zach Eflin.

Yup, love the pitching from the 2023 draft and UDFA class.

I'm never a fan of drafting a speed only guy with a top pick. Much happier with a Honeycutt type project.