989 replies to this topic

[Il BuonO]

Good read.

I already mentioned in another thread I thought there were a couple pitchers in the top ten they could have gone after and another poster stated the preference of Elias to get position players. I agree it tends to look that way, but I think it’s more a result of strategy for the moment and an overall philosophy that avoids pitchers.

What’s the feeling on Kjerstad? Moves quickly and projects to starter, all star?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Good read.

I already mentioned in another thread I thought there were a couple pitchers in the top ten they could have gone after and another poster stated the preference of Elias to get position players. I agree it tends to look that way, but I think it’s more a result of strategy for the moment and an overall philosophy that avoids pitchers.

What’s the feeling on Kjerstad? Moves quickly and projects to starter, all star?

He'll be playing at 22 next year. Lets hope he moves quickly. There is really no reason not to move him quickly of he's performing. A+/AA in '21. Starts '22 in AAA with a possible call up at any point after April that year.

From my pov there is no resason to think he won't hit for power in the bigs. I think the question is what kind of Avg/OBP will he bring and how solid of a corner OF is he.

[Old Man]

Wonder what Keith Law thinks. LOL

[Mike B]

Wonder what Keith Law thinks. LOL

I am sure we will all will wait anxiously for his unbiased view.

[Old Man]

I am sure we will all will wait anxiously for his unbiased view.

Thats funny. He does usually have a chip on his shoulder when writing about Oriole prospects.

[Mackus]

He'll be playing at 22 next year. Lets hope he moves quickly. There is really no reason not to move him quickly of he's performing. A+/AA in '21. Starts '22 in AAA with a possible call up at any point after April that year.

From my pov there is no resason to think he won't hit for power in the bigs. I think the question is what kind of Avg/OBP will he bring and how solid of a corner OF is he.

 

There is ample reason to think he won't hit for power in the bigs.  I think there is probably about a 1-in-4 chance he never even makes the majors and about a 1-in-2 chance he never accrues a single positive WAR.

 

Those are the typical odds for someone taken at the back-end of the top-10, which is what the consensus was on his ranking pre-draft and is the amount that his bonus was commensurate.

 

If he's a legit top-5 talent the odds are slightly better (1-in-5 he never he reaches bigs, 1-in-3 he never accrues a single positive WAR).  But unless a guy is a no-doubt-about-it #1 overall pick I think there is always ample room for doubt that they will ever accomplish anything of note in the majors.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

There is ample reason to think he won't hit for power in the bigs. I think there is probably about a 1-in-4 chance he never even makes the majors and about a 1-in-2 chance he never accrues a single positive WAR.

Those are the typical odds for someone taken at the back-end of the top-10, which is what the consensus was on his ranking pre-draft and is the amount that his bonus was commensurate.

If he's a legit top-5 talent the odds are slightly better (1-in-5 he never he reaches bigs, 1-in-3 he never accrues a single positive WAR). But unless a guy is a no-doubt-about-it #1 overall pick I think there is always ample room for doubt that they will ever accomplish anything of note in the majors.

I could have made my position more clear. I don't necessarily disagree with your odds of making it in the show. I believe, from my very amatuer eyes and ears, that he has big league power. I think he could start '21 in Baltimore and with a full season of PA would find a way to hit 20+ bombs. Obviously it can be empty power if you cant hit for avg or get on base.

[Ruzious]

I could have made my position more clear. I don't necessarily disagree with your odds of making it in the show. I believe, from my very amatuer eyes and ears, that he has big league power. I think he could start '21 in Baltimore and with a full season of PA would find a way to hit 20+ bombs. Obviously it can be empty power if you cant hit for avg or get on base.

 

Don't forget Hudson Haskin, the 39th pick, and also 21 years old - also turning 22 before next season starts.  I figure Diaz gets a shot in Baltimore before both Haskin and Kjerstad.  DJ Stewart looks like an odd man out - despite his .878 OPS.  He's looked awful defensively.  Ryan McKenna also - seems like a talented defensive CFer caught in a numbers crunch.  SF seems to take players like that and makes them into quality major leaguers.  Or... maybe shop Mullins - he's established defensively, but his hitting is still lacking. We won't get a lot for guys like Stewart and Mullins, but maybe we can at least get a reliever with some upside.            

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Don't forget Hudson Haskin, the 39th pick, and also 21 years old - also turning 22 before next season starts. I figure Diaz gets a shot in Baltimore before both Haskin and Kjerstad. DJ Stewart looks like an odd man out - despite his .878 OPS. He's looked awful defensively. Ryan McKenna also - seems like a talented defensive CFer caught in a numbers crunch. SF seems to take players like that and makes them into quality major leaguers. Or... maybe shop Mullins - he's established defensively, but his hitting is still lacking. We won't get a lot for guys like Stewart and Mullins, but maybe we can at least get a reliever with some upside.

I think Stewart is good for another shot next year. He's clearly on notice but so are all of the guys not named Mountcastle. The enticing thing about Stewart is the OBP and power he has shown this year. Yeah, hes a DH, but the guy only needs to find a way to hit .240. If he does that and maintain something close to the BB % and ISO he put up this year you have a high .800s to low 900s OPS guy.

[Mackus]

I think Stewart is good for another shot next year. He's clearly on notice but so is all of the guys not named Mountcastle. The enticing thing about Stewart is the OBP and power he has shown this year. Yeah, hes a DH, but the guy only needs to find a way to hit .240. If he does that and maintain something close to the BB % and ISO he put up this year you have a high .800s to low 900s OPS guy.

 

He's had a 300 ISO this season.  That doesn't seem sustainable unless you think he's got top-10 power in all of baseball.

 

In over 2k minor league PAs his ISO was 177.  He did produce a 257 ISO last year in his half-season at Norfolk, so maybe he's trying something new and it's working.  

 

I have much more faith in his OBP abilities than his power, but his 18% walk rate this year is almost certainly an aberration over a short season.  That rate would, again, be top-10 in all of baseball.  His minor league BB% was 12.5%, last season he had a 13.7% in Norfolk.

 

 

Agree he gets another shot next year, but he's 5th fiddle in the OF right now behind Santander, Mountcastle, Hays, and even Mullins, IMO.  I'd be looking to part ways with Nunez, see if we can get anything of possible use for him, and open up the DH spot for some combination of Mancini, Mountcastle, Stewart, and Sisco.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Agreed that his current ISO and BB rate arent sustainable over a full year. That said, I do believe in the power and the OBP ability is evident at this point. Again find a way to hit .240 over a full season and I think he'll be a .350+ OBP and .500+ slug guy. Yes, he needs to mostly be the DH but I think he's earned the ABs to start the year. Trey might not be ready or able to go if covid is still prevalent. In that case 1b should be Mountcastle. If Trey is ready Im still putting Stewart at DH with Mountcastle, Hays, and Santander in the OF. Mullins is clearly the odd man out as the 4th OF in that scenario.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I'll put it another way. Outside of Mountcastle and obviously Trey, I think he's got the most offensive upside on the current roster. More than Santander.

[Mackus]

I think Mullins is more likely to contribute long-term, so I'd give him higher priority than Stewart.  But agree that those two guys are behind everybody else.  I'd be fairly surprised, and frankly it'd be a good problem, if we can't find a decent amount of playing time for both.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I like watching Mullins play but you dig into the numbers and there just isn't much there. I expected the stats to be kinder to his defense.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I like watching Mullins play but you dig into the numbers and there just isn't much there. I expected the stats to be kinder to his defense.

Im gonna walk this back because there probably isn't enough defensive data to go on for this year. Plus, he does pass the eye test in the OF.

[Mackus]

I think Mullins is more likely to contribute mostly because there is a smaller role available that I think he could be good at.  There really isn't a role on a team for a guy who can't hit well enough to DH and can't field well enough to play outfield.  But there is often times a role for a guy who doesn't hit well enough to start in the outfield but does field well enough to start in CF.  

 

I think Mullins can be a upper 600s guy which is about all you can usually get for a 4th OF who's capable of playing CF.  Which I think we'll need since our corner OF candidates don't seem like the types that will be able to fill in at CF when needed.

 

I think Stewart is likely a mid 700s OPS guy, which isn't good enough to play regularly at DH.  And I don't think he's good enough defensively to play regularly in the OF, at least not if that's all the bat he's carrying.

 

Upside is higher for Stewart, I'd agree.  But so is the bar he needs to clear to be useful at all given his limitations defensively.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Agree that Mullins is more likely to have a role going forward as a 4th OFer. To be clear, I dont expect Stewart to be an .850 OPS guy next year. Not high on his prospects, but then again Im not high on any of these guys not named Mountcastle. So Im just hoping they find a way to get him him ABs to start next year because I am enticed by his offensive upside.

[mweb08]

I think Mullins is more likely to contribute mostly because there is a smaller role available that I think he could be good at. There really isn't a role on a team for a guy who can't hit well enough to DH and can't field well enough to play outfield. But there is often times a role for a guy who doesn't hit well enough to start in the outfield but does field well enough to start in CF.

I think Mullins can be a upper 600s guy which is about all you can usually get for a 4th OF who's capable of playing CF. Which I think we'll need since our corner OF candidates don't seem like the types that will be able to fill in at CF when needed.

I think Stewart is likely a mid 700s OPS guy, which isn't good enough to play regularly at DH. And I don't think he's good enough defensively to play regularly in the OF, at least not if that's all the bat he's carrying.

Upside is higher for Stewart, I'd agree. But so is the bar he needs to clear to be useful at all given his limitations defensively.

I don't disagree much with what you're saying, but in terms of opportunity next season, I'd favor Stewart. The reason being is I think we basically know that Mullins is a 4th OF, which isn't all that valuable, especially on a young, non contending team. Furthermore, we don't need to give him the opportunity to figure out what to do with him. However, Stewart has that higher upside as you mention so the O's should provide him with more opportunity to basically tell the franchise where he fits into their future.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I don't disagree much with what you're saying, but in terms of opportunity next season, I'd favor Stewart. The reason being is I think we basically know that Mullins is a 4th OF, which isn't all that valuable, especially on a young, non contending team. Furthermore, we don't need to give him the opportunity to figure out what to do with him. However, Stewart has that higher upside as you mention so the O's should provide him with more opportunity to basically tell the franchise where he fits into their future.

Well said

[Mike B]

I don't disagree much with what you're saying, but in terms of opportunity next season, I'd favor Stewart. The reason being is I think we basically know that Mullins is a 4th OF, which isn't all that valuable, especially on a young, non contending team. Furthermore, we don't need to give him the opportunity to figure out what to do with him. However, Stewart has that higher upside as you mention so the O's should provide him with more opportunity to basically tell the franchise where he fits into their future.

I agree that Dj has a higher upside offensively, but his defense is pretty bad, and I think we will have better options as a DH, so it is hard to see DJ getting enough time to make a substansial jump.