17 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

EDIT: Thread was originally titled 'O's rotation and staff with Jurrjens.' Switched title, because same premise remains with any additional SP added.


As I make clear in the Jones / Crisp thread, if Jones is traded to Atlanta, I certainly hope more is coming back than Jurrjens. (Here is a link to a FanGraphs article from November, saying Jurrjens is not worth a top prospect http://www.fangraphs...a-top-prospect/.)

However, if Jurrjens is the main piece, what would the O's staff look like with him?

Based on who is currently here, I would like to see an Opening Day staff that looks like:

Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Wada
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Simon, Bergesen or Tillman, Patton or Eveland

My guess is that the O’s will likely have Bergesen, Tillman, and maybe Matusz starting for AAA Norfolk to begin the year. That would mean that other pitchers on the 40 man like Darren O’Day, Rapada, Zach Phillips, and VandenHurk would be competing for spots in the Baltimore pen.

Obviously Jurrjens would be in the rotation. If Guthrie is not traded, and Britton is healthy, both of them will be as well. Wada might not last the year in the rotation, but he is going to be given that opportunity to begin the year. That would leave one spot available.

It seems clear that Arrieta should be healthy and ready to go in the Spring. I would think he would have the advantage over Matusz going into the year. The other alternative would be moving Arrieta into the bullpen, and perhaps trading Johnson.

If Jurrjens is added, what would be your staff based on who is currently here?

[David Robinette]

According to published reports, the Orioles were not interested in the Braves' offer of Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and a minor league pitcher in exchange for Adam Jones. But they would consider making the trade if it included Tommy Hanson instead of Jurrjens.

[Adam Wolff]

My staff would be:

Jurrjens
Guthrie
Britton
Arrieta
Hunter

If Hunter can get anywhere close to 2010 form, it would be huge. I'm not that high on him, but he'll only be 25 at the start of the season. That staff is still really dependent upon Britton and Arrieta to determinte whether it's good, average, or bad. I honestly believe Zach could pitch a full season with a low 3 ERA and Jake could be in the high 3's. That said, they both could be at 4.50 as well. I'd like to see Matusz establish himself at AAA over the first month or so, but if he were to come into camp in great shape, looking like the pitcher a lot of us thought he was, I wouldn't be opposed to him in the rotation over Hunter. That would actually be an ideal situation, however I'm very cautious anymore about my expectations for Matusz.

[BSLChrisStoner]

If Hunter can get anywhere close to 2010 form, it would be huge. I'm not that high on him, but he'll only be 25 at the start of the season.

I like Hunter. Ideally, he would probably be in your bullpen, but I’d be comfortable going into ’12 with him part of the rotation if that was the path the O's decided on.

In ’09, Hunter was 9-6, with 4.10 era. In 112 ip, he allowed 113 hits, 13 homers, 33 bb’s, with 64 k’s. His OPS against was .736, with a G/F ratio of 0.64.

In ’10, Hunter was 13-4, with a 3.73 era. In 128 ip, he allowed 125 hits, 21 homers, 33 bb’s, with 68 k’s. His OPS against was .740, with a G/F ratio of 0.74.

In '11, he dealt with oblique and groin injuries to start the year. With the O’s, Hunter’s average fastball was 91.9 mph. Reminded me of Guthrie in some ways. He finished 4-4, 4.48 era. In his 84.2 ip, he allowed 100 hits, 12 homers, 15 bb's, with 45 k's. His OPS against was .782, with a G/F ratio of 0.77.

At AAA Round Rock, he pitched in 8 games, starting 5. He was 2-2, with a 5.06 era. He pitched 26.2 ip, allowing 37 hits, 2 hr’s, 3 bb’s, with 16 k’s.

SI's Tom Verducci had an interesting article last year (http://sportsillustr...kman/index.html) which pointed to Hunter as an example of a pitcher who 'steals' distance, and whose effective fastball is improved because of this.

[BSLChrisStoner]

According to published reports, the Orioles were not interested in the Braves' offer of Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and a minor league pitcher in exchange for Adam Jones. But they would consider making the trade if it included Tommy Hanson instead of Jurrjens.

Yeah, saw this later as well. I'd be surprised if we could get Hanson back.

If we did, the premise of this thread would remain the same. The O's get back a guy that you automatically plug into the rotation. How does impact the rest of the staff?

[Oriole85]

If the Orioles could get back Tommy Hanson, I think I'd do it. Not sure why some are concerned about potentially "blocking" Britton/Arrieta. With that attitude, had the Orioles been smart and signed more starters besides Justin Duke last year, they could've blocked Matusz/Tillman. Point is you need more starters, not less, they don't grow on trees. Better to have surplus, where you can put some in the pen, in Norfolk, or even trade than have too few and have to make trades for the likes of Jo-Joe Reyes and start guys like Chris Jakabatkus and Mitch Atkins.

[Oriole85]

My staff would be:

Jurrjens
Guthrie
Britton
Arrieta
Hunter

If Hunter can get anywhere close to 2010 form, it would be huge. I'm not that high on him, but he'll only be 25 at the start of the season. That staff is still really dependent upon Britton and Arrieta to determinte whether it's good, average, or bad. I honestly believe Zach could pitch a full season with a low 3 ERA and Jake could be in the high 3's. That said, they both could be at 4.50 as well. I'd like to see Matusz establish himself at AAA over the first month or so, but if he were to come into camp in great shape, looking like the pitcher a lot of us thought he was, I wouldn't be opposed to him in the rotation over Hunter. That would actually be an ideal situation, however I'm very cautious anymore about my expectations for Matusz.

Like Chris said ideally Hunter is in the 'pen, but we did trade to be a starter so I'm giving him that opportuntity. I agree that Matusz unless he has a very impressive spring should start in Norfolk.

[BSLChrisStoner]

As mentioned in the other thread, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal has tweeted that the O's are nearing a deal with Chen. If added, the premise that the started this thread (another pitcher added to the rotation) remains.

[BSLChrisStoner]

With Chen, what staff would you like to see?

My guess is that with Chen, it that it goes from likely to a near lock for Matusz (and Bergesen, and Tillman) to start the year at AAA Norfolk. As I said above, that would mean pitchers like O'Day, Rapada, Phillips, and VandenHurk would be competing for spots in the Baltimore pen.

That could give the O's a staff which looks like:

Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Chen, Wada
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, O'Day, Simon, Patton or Eveland

The staff I would like to see with Chen would be*:

Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Matusz, Wada
Arrieta, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Simon, Tillman, Patton or Eveland

*Johnson traded.

[Adam Wolff]

With Chen, what staff would you like to see?

My guess is that with Chen, it that it goes from likely to a near lock for Matusz (and Bergesen, and Tillman) to start the year at AAA Norfolk. As I said above, that would mean pitchers like O'Day, Rapada, Phillips, and VandenHurk would be competing for spots in the Baltimore pen.

That could give the O's a staff which looks like:

Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Chen, Wada
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, O'Day, Simon, Patton or Eveland

The staff I would like to see with Chen would be*:

Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Matusz, Wada
Arrieta, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Simon, Tillman, Patton or Eveland

*Johnson traded.

Not to send this in another direction, but what kind of return do you think the O's could get for Johnson? Comparable to that of Andrew Bailey?

[FlavaDave10]

With Chen, what staff would you like to see?

My guess is that with Chen, it that it goes from likely to a near lock for Matusz (and Bergesen, and Tillman) to start the year at AAA Norfolk. As I said above, that would mean pitchers like O'Day, Rapada, Phillips, and VandenHurk would be competing for spots in the Baltimore pen.

That could give the O's a staff which looks like:

Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Chen, Wada
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, O'Day, Simon, Patton or Eveland

The staff I would like to see with Chen would be*:

Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Matusz, Wada
Arrieta, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Simon, Tillman, Patton or Eveland

*Johnson traded.

Definitely think Chen will be in the rotation. I like the signing, gives the Orioles more starting pitching options. Never hurts to have too much pitching. Heck, Keith Law has made it a hobby to troll the Orioles, and even he likes the Chen signing. If Law is optimistic about something, that's a good sign.

Assuming no other moves are made (which I do not believe is the case, I think they'll add one more starting pitcher), here's what I think the pitching staff will look like:

Rotation- Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Hunter, Arrieta/Matusz/Eveland
Bullpen- Eveland/Patton, Wada, Strop, Johnson, Gregg, Simon, Phillips/Rapada

What I think the staff will actually look like depends on if they sign another guy and who it is.

[Luke Jackson]

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I thought a huge part of the reason Wada signed with the Orioles was that he'd be given every opportunity to start. Wada has said as much, and in his introductory presser, it sure seemed like Wada was being introduced as a starting pitcher. I say all this because the dudes and gals on the O's beat seem to think Wada could get pushed to the 'pen because of the Chen signing. So yeah.

Pending injury or trade, it seems like Guthrie, Britton and Chen are bound for the opening day rotation. Britton could explode like Matusz did, but hopefully that doesn't happen because that would make me sad. This leaves us with the following for the last two rotation spots, barring another addition of a pitcher who'd be a lock for the rotation:

-Arrieta. Probably destined for the 'pen but likely needs another 30 starts with his newly healthy elbow to get a fair shot.
-Wada. A soft-tossing lefty with question marks about whether his stuff will play in an AL East rotation, but may have the inside track to a rotation spot if he was brought in with the understanding that he'd begin the year as a starter.
-Matusz. I think he'll begin in Norfolk.
-Hunter. He kinda sucks but Buck seems to like him a lot.
-Eveland. He definitely sucks.
-Tillman. He also sucks.

This leaves me with an opening day rotation of: 1) Guthrie, 2) Britton, 3) Chen, 4) Arrieta, 5) Wada/Hunter. That's still easily the worst rotation in the AL East, but it should soak up more innings than it did last year. There's some upside here with Britton, Chen and Arrieta. The rotation could get a shot in the arm if Matusz rebounds to 2010 form.

[Luke Jackson]

From Jason A. Churchill on ESPN Insider, FWIW:

"The Orioles' rotation, as it stands now, will choose five from a group including Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Tsuyoshia Wada, Tommy Hunter and Alfredo Simon.

Guthrie, Britton, Chen and Wada appear to be near locks, and if Matusz throws well enough in spring training, he's a lock, too, leaving Simon and Hunter in the bullpen. Arrieta and Tillman could be headed bck to Triple-A or into the 'pen themselves."

So there ya go.

[BSLChrisStoner]

From Jason A. Churchill on ESPN Insider, FWIW:

"The Orioles' rotation, as it stands now, will choose five from a group including Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Tsuyoshia Wada, Tommy Hunter and Alfredo Simon.

Guthrie, Britton, Chen and Wada appear to be near locks, and if Matusz throws well enough in spring training, he's a lock, too, leaving Simon and Hunter in the bullpen. Arrieta and Tillman could be headed bck to Triple-A or into the 'pen themselves."

So there ya go.

I think Wada clearly starts in the rotation for what you mentioned previously. That was why he signed here. I think there is almost a zero percent chance of Arrieta starting '12 in AAA.

[David Robinette]

If the Orioles could get back Tommy Hanson, I think I'd do it.

Maybe I'm missing something. Did the Orioles once have Tommy Hanson?

[BSLChrisStoner]

If the Orioles could get back Tommy Hanson, I think I'd do it.

Maybe I'm missing something. Did the Orioles once have Tommy Hanson?

I believe he meant 'get back' as in a trade for Hanson, not as in 'have again.' No, the O's have never had Hanson.

[SportsGuy]

From Jason A. Churchill on ESPN Insider, FWIW:

"The Orioles' rotation, as it stands now, will choose five from a group including Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Tsuyoshia Wada, Tommy Hunter and Alfredo Simon.

Guthrie, Britton, Chen and Wada appear to be near locks, and if Matusz throws well enough in spring training, he's a lock, too, leaving Simon and Hunter in the bullpen. Arrieta and Tillman could be headed bck to Triple-A or into the 'pen themselves."

So there ya go.

I think Wada clearly starts in the rotation for what you mentioned previously. That was why he signed here. I think there is almost a zero percent chance of Arrieta starting '12 in AAA.

But does he start in extended ST?

ST is going to decide a lot. How Arrieta and Matusz look in ST will say a lot.

[NCRaven]

Obviously, there will be lots of competition and ST will influence these decisions. I know SG has suggested that players like Matusz, Britton and Arrieta should be virtually handed (he disagree with the way I've worded that) positions in the rotation unless they totally bomb. I disagree. They should be made to fight and claw their way into the rotation.

Having said that, if things go the way I expect, Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Arrieta and Hunter would be my starters. JJohnson, Strop, Gregg, O'Day and Simon figure to get slots in the pen from the right side; Wada and Patton from the left. That means guys like Phillips, Bergesen, Berken, Rapada, etal. will find themselves on other teams or in Norfolk, joining Matusz, Tillman, SJohnson.