7 replies to this topic

[ZachSpedden]

With the July 6 draft signing deadline approaching, the Baltimore Orioles are seeing a new crop of prospects enter the farm system. That, combined with the performance levels of players already in the system, warrants an updated look at the Orioles top-15 prospects.

 

http://baltimorespor...-season-update/

[BSLChrisStoner]

So, three questions...

1) Why Neustrom over McKenna?
2) Why Grenier over Stewart?
3) Why Knight over Lowther?

In each case you preferred the draft pick over the pro experience.

[ZachSpedden]

So, why Neustrom over McKenna? And why Grenier over Stewart?

While I like McKenna a lot, I'm holding judgement until we see more of what he does at Bowie over the coming months before determining exactly where he ends up. He fell just short of my top-15, but that might change by September.

As for Grenier, I feel that his defense will at least make him a role player that gets late-inning work and part-time at-bats. Stewart is more difficult to determine, because what is his role if his power doesn't translate to the majors? To put it another way, he's more difficult to evaluate than say Cedric Mullins, whose speed and defense will carry him if his bat doesn't cut in the majors. Stewart doesn't necessarily have that skill set to fall back on, so the power determines a wide gap between his ceiling (left fielder with average or above-average power) and floor (fourth or fifth outfielder).

I chose Knight over Lowther, because I think Knight's ceiling is higher. Yes, Lowther has more pro experience and success this season, but I like Knight's offerings better as a starter if he addresses his durability concerns. Even if the durability is an issue, Knight looks like a high-leverage reliever, whereas Lowther's bullpen role is a little more uncertain if he doesn't cut it as a major league starter.

[BSLChrisStoner]

You can make similar arguments against Santander, but he'd be on my list.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Re: Stewart...  I think it's fair to question what he will be in the Majors.  I do wonder if he's a AAAA type guy.  I'm hoping for Mancini / Pearce type upside. Right now he's sporting a .817 OPS at AAA, with 24 xbh's. 

For me, I'd have him above Grenier, because I think that production at AAA gives him the edge over a guy who has yet to have a pro ab.

That said, I do get what you are saying.  I do think Grenier will move quickly, as long as he isn't overwhelmed offensively.


Appreciate the thoughts here Zach.

[por]

I am not a scout but I have been going Frederick Keys games for twenty years and Ryan McKenna is the best all around player that I have seen in a Keys uniform.  To me, he is the best prospect in the organization and it is ludicrous to not have him in the top 15.

 

Ryan Mountcastle is the number one prospect on this list.  I saw him a lot in Frederick last year.  Both McKenna and Mountcastle are similar at bat in that they consistently hit the ball hard.  Mountcastle has more power and McKenna is more patient.

 

Two big differences between Mountcastle and McKenna.  One is that McKenna has absolute elite speed.  Even if that never translates into a base stealer it gives him a huge advantage on defense and legging out hits.  The other is that Mountcastle arm makes him a liability wherever he plays.

 

There seems to be a huge bias with these rankings.  Stewart is dinged for only being a corner outfielder.  Never mind that he is perfectly fine defensively and would be a huge upgrade in the field over Mancini, but the fact that Mountcastle does not have a position does not impact his rankings.  McKenna has to prove it at Bowie before he is ranked, but Robert Neustrom who is actually older than McKenna is ranked even though he is three levels below McKenna.

[por]

In addition the article says Michael Baumann, "starting at Frederick before earning his promotion to Bowie".  This is incorrect.  Baumann started at Delmarva and was promoted to Frederick where he does not miss bats (33 strikeouts in 50 innings).  He seems to be a two pitch pitcher to me and has gotten hit hard the last two outings.  Lowther is the same age, was drafted higher and is considerably more impressive.

[ZachSpedden]

In addition the article says Michael Baumann, "starting at Frederick before earning his promotion to Bowie".  This is incorrect.  Baumann started at Delmarva and was promoted to Frederick where he does not miss bats (33 strikeouts in 50 innings). 

Thank you for pointing out this error. I've edited the story to make the correction.