16 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

Ok, let's say we enter the offseason coming off of an 84 win season and fell 5 games short of the playoffs. Along with this, let's also say that Matusz looks like he should be a member of the rotation next year judging by how he ends the season(I make this part of the hypothetical because I feel it is important later on in the discussion).

Now, let's also say our run differential ends up in the area of -50, give or take.

Some of you may remember that the Mariners won 85 games a few years ago with a run differential similar to that.

And what many people said(and the people I am talking about are Os fans on sites like OH..i am sure it was said all over though) about the Mariners was that they would fall on their face next year...They would point to their run differential, poor offense, etc...and say that they got lucky and couldn't sustain it the next year.

Now, I am not bringing this up to have a run differential conversation. I am bringing this up because I feel that a lot of Orioles fans will think everything will be fine next year because we just won a bunch of games.

Now, even beyond the fans...My worry is that ownership and front office will think this and not make the huge upgrades needed.

So, if the above scenario played out, what do you think ownership would be willing to do with this team in the offseason? Do you think they would think they just need a few minor tweaks to the roster or that they still need to make big changes?

[BSLChrisStoner]

So, if the above scenario played out, what do you think ownership would be willing to do with this team in the offseason? Do you think they would think they just need a few minor tweaks to the roster or that they still need to make big changes?

As I said in Pete's thread, I think the rest of the 2012 season will determine the O's course in the off-season. If the O's internally feel they are close, I could buy the argument that there would be an increasing % chance of them being more aggressive via FA's, if they feel there are FA's who could put them over-the-top. However, based on their comments regarding FA since Duquette was hired, the unwillingness to cut Gregg, etc.; I think that while the odds might be 'higher' they would still be very low.

If the O's end this year winning around 85 games, the focus has to be on improving the roster to the point you go into the Spring expecting to contend. Like you, I don't believe roster improvement has to be limited to top/elite FA's.

I think Duquette has one larger trade in him this off-season, but I expect most of the current roster to return, and be augmented by non-elite FA's like BJ Upton, Victorino, A. Sanchez.

[SportsGuy]

As I said in Pete's thread, I think the rest of the 2012 season will determine the O's course in the off-season. If the O's internally feel they are close, I could buy the argument that there would be an increasing % chance of them being more aggressive via FA's, if they feel there are FA's who could put them over-the-top. However, based on their comments regarding FA since Duquette was hired, the unwillingness to cut Gregg, etc.; I think that while the odds might be 'higher' they would still be very low.

If the O's end this year winning around 85 games, the focus has to be on improving the roster to the point you go into the Spring expecting to contend. Like you, I don't believe roster improvement has to be limited to top/elite FA's.

I think Duquette has one larger trade in him this off-season, but I expect most of the current roster to return, and be augmented by non-elite FA's like BJ Upton, Victorino, A. Sanchez.

I basically agree with all of this.

But one thing is for sure IMO...This team has got to add some 5+ WAR players.

I think there is a chance you see our MiL system drained by the time ST rolls around.

I think you could see many of our top 15 guys dealt(outside of MM and Bundy) and bring in guys like Headley and perhaps Justin Upton.

I feel that way because those guys still aren't overly expensive in terms of dollars and they need to keep money down.

They may go after one big guy, like say a Cliff Lee or Greinke but I tend to think not.

I think a BJ Upton target is a good one but I anticipate them getting really outbid by a team that wants him as a CFer(Washington? Atlanta? Texas?), which will carry more value for him short and long term.

There is no chance they don't bring in at least 1 new starting pitcher..that I feel very secure saying.

[PD24]

No matter what the Orioles do to finish the season, including the playoffs, they still need to make significant moves in the offseason.

They just cannot expect to compete again in 2013 with anywhere close to the same team. Their extra inning record will never be repeated, and the success of the bullpen will not happen again next year, at least not to this extent.

I do fear that they'll look at the team if they win 86 games and think that they only need a couple marginal upgrades. For example, if they replace Reynolds with Upton, they may look at that as a several game improvement right there to get them to 90 wins....

I just hope they don't get complacent.

[Oriole85]

No matter what the Orioles do to finish the season, including the playoffs, they still need to make significant moves in the offseason.

They just cannot expect to compete again in 2013 with anywhere close to the same team. Their extra inning record will never be repeated, and the success of the bullpen will not happen again next year, at least not to this extent.

I do fear that they'll look at the team if they win 86 games and think that they only need a couple marginal upgrades. For example, if they replace Reynolds with Upton, they may look at that as a several game improvement right there to get them to 90 wins....

I just hope they don't get complacent.

Agreed but it's always nice to defy logic. I think the FO is smart enough to know this isn't likely to be repeated. It's how they go replacing the non-"nuggets."

[PD24]

Agreed but it's always nice to defy logic. I think the FO is smart enough to know this isn't likely to be repeated. It's how they go replacing the non-"nuggets."

Of course it's nice. It's awesome.

I think DD is smart enough, but the people running the organization in the past have not.

Plus, it's so hard to break up a good team. If this team makes a playoff, maybe they win a series...now it's just increasingly hard to break up the team.

I know it's comparing apples to oranges in a sense but look at the outcry over the Ravens and Dilfer. All the Ravens tried to do was not stay complacent and it ended up biting them.

I'm just paranoid that the success will get to the people in the organization and them not realizing how far off they really are from having as much talent as the rest of the elite teams in the league.

[lordbrook]

I hate to be thinking this way, but IMO the worst possible scenario for the O's chances next season is for a strong finish. I think complacency in the FO is always going to be the first, second, third, and fourth option, and that they would be more than happy to have a reason behind it. "Just look at what we did last season! We don't need to even worry about run differential or corner defense because we were competing in the AL East!" There is no way this team comes close to repeating this record with the same roster. I would be willing to bet my life on that. I look at PA and see this season as his personal vindication for everything he's done in the past.

I'm so down on the FO that I tend to see them as I do a heroin or meth addict. We all know they aren't going to get better until they hit absolute rock bottom, so the quicker they get there, the quicker they can rebuild themselves as a productive member of society. This year's team to me is like a functional addict staying clean for a few months; it doesn't mean they are done using, they just had a good stretch.

[Mackus]

Plus, it's so hard to break up a good team. If this team makes a playoff, maybe they win a series...now it's just increasingly hard to break up the team.

I'm just paranoid that the success will get to the people in the organization and them not realizing how far off they really are from having as much talent as the rest of the elite teams in the league.

I don't really think there is anything to "break up". The spots we're talking about going out and improving are obvious holes and still would be under most circumstances heading into next season, even if we make a good run.

Reynolds is gone after the year. Roberts can't be counted on. Betemit and Davis are your only corner infielders or DH options. We have nobody for LF. The SP is still a mess. At best we'll have 3 reliable spots set up in house between Chen, Hammel, and one of the young guys. I can't see them not adding at least one SP through trade or FA.

I am concerned that ownership won't approve of an increase in payroll beyond the $80M area. I'd like to go up to at least $90-95M for next year. We should be around $75M for everybody already under contract or with likely options for next year (Markakis, Roberts, Jones, Hardy, Roberts, Hammel, Wada, Lindstrom, Chen, Betemit, Ayala), arbitration guys (Johnson, O'Day, Andino, Davis, Hunter, Teagarden, Reimold, Patton) and then then remaining pre-arb guys. Wieters is on the verge of a Super-2. If he is, he'll add in a few more million most likely.

[PD24]

I hate to be thinking this way, but IMO the worst possible scenario for the O's chances next season is for a strong finish. I think complacency in the FO is always going to be the first, second, third, and fourth option, and that they would be more than happy to have a reason behind it. "Just look at what we did last season! We don't need to even worry about run differential or corner defense because we were competing in the AL East!" There is no way this team comes close to repeating this record with the same roster. I would be willing to bet my life on that. I look at PA and see this season as his personal vindication for everything he's done in the past.

I'm so down on the FO that I tend to see them as I do a heroin or meth addict. We all know they aren't going to get better until they hit absolute rock bottom, so the quicker they get there, the quicker they can rebuild themselves as a productive member of society. This year's team to me is like a functional addict staying clean for a few months; it doesn't mean they are done using, they just had a good stretch.

I agree with you based on the previous 14 years but it's not fair to DD not to give him time to prove that he's different.

I'm not saying to give him the benefit of the doubt, but let's not make him out to be an idiot before he proves that he is.

[Oriole85]

Of course it's nice. It's awesome.

I think DD is smart enough, but the people running the organization in the past have not.

Plus, it's so hard to break up a good team. If this team makes a playoff, maybe they win a series...now it's just increasingly hard to break up the team.

I know it's comparing apples to oranges in a sense but look at the outcry over the Ravens and Dilfer. All the Ravens tried to do was not stay complacent and it ended up biting them.

I'm just paranoid that the success will get to the people in the organization and them not realizing how far off they really are from having as much talent as the rest of the elite teams in the league.

I'll blame them if they stay complacent, but I'm not going to bash them for offseason moves that haven't happened yet. Do you think they are going to pick up Reynolds option? Are they OK with Betemit playing 3B everyday? Don't you think they are going to try to find a LF since Reimold can't stay healthy. Likewise, don't you think they'll try to upgrade 2B given B-Rob's injury history. Maybe find a better 1B? And of course, starting pitching.The holes are glaring and the O's have done a great job this year(and yes a little luck) getting to where they are despite this.

Let's cross the playoff bridge when it comes. Billy Beane, who you've quoted before called the playoffs a "crapshoot," which I think is partially true, but not entirely. They've found ways to win all year, why should that stop?

Dilfer was quite possibly the worst SB winning QB of all-time.

[PD24]

I don't really think there is anything to "break up". The spots we're talking about going out and improving are obvious holes and still would be under most circumstances heading into next season, even if we make a good run.

Reynolds is gone after the year. Roberts can't be counted on. Betemit and Davis are your only corner infielders or DH options. We have nobody for LF. The SP is still a mess. At best we'll have 3 reliable spots set up in house between Chen, Hammel, and one of the young guys. I can't see them not adding at least one SP through trade or FA.

I am concerned that ownership won't approve of an increase in payroll beyond the $80M area. I'd like to go up to at least $90-95M for next year. We should be around $75M for everybody already under contract or with likely options for next year (Markakis, Roberts, Jones, Hardy, Roberts, Hammel, Wada, Lindstrom, Chen, Betemit, Ayala), arbitration guys (Johnson, O'Day, Andino, Davis, Hunter, Teagarden, Reimold, Patton) and then then remaining pre-arb guys. Wieters is on the verge of a Super-2. If he is, he'll add in a few more million most likely.

Yeah, I thought about this as I was typing that post. You're right in that it's not like they're going to pick up Reynolds option if they make the playoffs and not pick it up if they miss it, for example.

So, because some of our holes are so big, this isn't as big of an issue. I agree with you here...

I guess I'm thinking in terms of who they get to fill the holes. For example, if the O's win 85 games will they think that replacing Reynolds, Betemit, and 2 rotation spots with average production will get them from 85 to 94? I think previous regimes would think just like that.

They'd just assume that Hammel, Chen, the bullpen, AJ, etc would all continue their career years, while everyone else would improve and there'd be no drop-off.

Accounting for regression will be key for DD and company...

[PD24]

I'll blame them if they stay complacent, but I'm not going to bash them for offseason moves that haven't happened yet. Do you think they are going to pick up Reynolds option? Are they OK with Betemit playing 3B everyday? Don't you think they are going to try to find a LF since Reimold can't stay healthy. Likewise, don't you think they'll try to upgrade 2B given B-Rob's injury history. Maybe find a better 1B? And of course, starting pitching.The holes are glaring and the O's have done a great job this year(and yes a little luck) getting to where they are despite this.

Let's cross the playoff bridge when it comes. Billy Beane, who you've quoted before called the playoffs a "crapshoot," which I think is partially true, but not entirely. They've found ways to win all year, why should that stop?

Dilfer was quite possibly the worst SB winning QB of all-time.

Agree with everything you say. Including the Dilfer part...yet fans still CRUSH the Ravens, specifically Brian Billick, for cutting him after winning the SB.

[Mackus]

I guess I'm thinking in terms of who they get to fill the holes. For example, if the O's win 85 games will they think that replacing Reynolds, Betemit, and 2 rotation spots with average production will get them from 85 to 94? I think previous regimes would think just like that.

They'd just assume that Hammel, Chen, the bullpen, AJ, etc would all continue their career years, while everyone else would improve and there'd be no drop-off.

Accounting for regression will be key for DD and company...

I think Duke will add the best combination of players he can (or thinks are the best combination) for whatever amount of salary room he's got to work with. I think they'll be able to go up to $90M. Maybe $95M. That's not a ton of room, only an additional $15-20M (Roberts' $10M hurts a lot here) or so depending on the arbitration numbers. We can't replace all of those holes (3B, LF, 2B, 1B, SP, SP, SP) with free agents for that amount. Or if we can, they'll all be guys like Betemit at their respective positions. We're gonna have to fill some of those spots with either internal options (I think they leave 1-2 spots in the rotation open to our young guys, as terrifying as that is) or with cheap scrap-heap type pickups. Maybe we can find another gem like Chen, not a #2/3 but at least a back-end #5 for relatively small dollars (or maybe that guy is Wada). Maybe we stick with Andino at 2B since we can't afford a better option.

[Oriole85]

I am concerned that ownership won't approve of an increase in payroll beyond the $80M area. I'd like to go up to at least $90-95M for next year. We should be around $75M for everybody already under contract or with likely options for next year (Markakis, Roberts, Jones, Hardy, Roberts, Hammel, Wada, Lindstrom, Chen, Betemit, Ayala), arbitration guys (Johnson, O'Day, Andino, Davis, Hunter, Teagarden, Reimold, Patton) and then then remaining pre-arb guys. Wieters is on the verge of a Super-2. If he is, he'll add in a few more million most likely.

Hopefully they will, I know everyone is extremely pessmestic, just like that JJ Hardy was going to be "priced out" last year or they weren't going to re-sign AJ. And I get everyone's frustration about being non-competitive for 14 years. But I think they'll get close to that range. But more importantly we need the right pieces, sure you can add $8 million to the payroll by signing a Vlad-type. I think sometimes we get a little too caught up on the dollar mark and instead of what we are actually getting.

[Oriole85]

Agree with everything you say. Including the Dilfer part...yet fans still CRUSH the Ravens, specifically Brian Billick, for cutting him after winning the SB.

Some people forget it's a business at times as hard as that maybe and the Ravens aren't running a charity to keep fan favorites on the payroll who are underperforming. Edgar Renteria wasn't welcomed back by the Giants after winning MVP during their run.

[SportsGuy]

I worry about the owner f'ing things up.

[Remember The Alomar]

Let's say we win 85 games. Has they're been any discussion on how this could effect FA's perception of coming to Baltimore? Would this have any tangible effect?