80 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

But no reason Headley shouldn't be an Oriole by this time tomorrow if the reports are true.

Agreed, which makes me think the reports likely aren't true, or at least aren't true anymore.

[bnickle]

Do you realize Machado hasn't even cracked a .750 OPS in AA yet?

It's not like he's Matt Wieters tearing up AA. Machado will probably start at AA again, move to AAA during 2013 and then might break camp in 2014.

And even if he does debut in 2013, name a prospect that has a sub .800 OPS in AA that went on to produce a .850+ OPS in his ML debut the next season.

He'll likely take at least 2 more years to be a star player.

Machado isn't arriving until 2015 at the earliest at the level people think he's going to produce at.

As long as he is healthy and doesn't completely collapse he'll debut by June of next year. Once that happens it's irrelevant exactly what kind of numbers he puts up or how long it takes him to breakthrough. At that point you have legit options on the left side of the IF. And you say Machado won;t break through until '15 which is exactly the year Headley becomes a FA so if that is the route your going you don;t have much of an argument. We could easily be left with Machado by himself in '15.

[ncicere]

I tweeted Connolly today and he said that Arrieta wouldnt be used to acquire a Josh Johnson or Garza, but a solid major league pitcher, like a 2-3 starter. This deal would be nice, but I think that the media has upped Headley's actual talent too much.

[Luke Jackson]

I tweeted Connolly today and he said that Arrieta wouldnt be used to acquire a Josh Johnson or Garza, but a solid major league pitcher, like a 2-3 starter. This deal would be nice, but I think that the media has upped Headley's actual talent too much.

Headley is a .299/.367/.448 hitter away from Petco for his career. This year (age 28), he's .277/.380/.484 on the road (all-star numbers). Any team acquiring Headley is banking that those numbers are the real Chase Headley.

[ncicere]

When I say that the media banking on his talent too much, I meant that the media has helped to influence his market. The Padres even said they were surprised he was getting so much attention. I just dont think a guy batting .277 with 12 HR's and 51 RBI's and 105 K's is worth giving up 3 prospects. Good player, but not THAT good. Unfortunately, the way the market has shaped his asking price is high.

[mweb08]

When I say that the media banking on his talent too much, I meant that the media has helped to influence his market. The Padres even said they were surprised he was getting so much attention. I just dont think a guy batting .277 with 12 HR's and 51 RBI's and 105 K's is worth giving up 3 prospects. Good player, but not THAT good. Unfortunately, the way the market has shaped his asking price is high.

You have to look at his OBP, depressed numbers due to PETCO, his good D, being under team control for 2 more years, and the lack of good third basemen out there.

[JeremyStrain]

When I say that the media banking on his talent too much, I meant that the media has helped to influence his market. The Padres even said they were surprised he was getting so much attention. I just dont think a guy batting .277 with 12 HR's and 51 RBI's and 105 K's is worth giving up 3 prospects. Good player, but not THAT good. Unfortunately, the way the market has shaped his asking price is high.

It's all about what a team covets, and what Headley brings is OBP and good 3B defense.

Some teams value OBP more than others, and that's what you see now, teams ponying up to get one of the better OBP guys in the league at a hard to fill position. That's where the inflated value comes from.

[SportsGuy]

Do the Orioles realize that acquiring Headley isn't selling low on Arrieta?

[ncicere]

It's all about what a team covets, and what Headley brings is OBP and good 3B defense.

Some teams value OBP more than others, and that's what you see now, teams ponying up to get one of the better OBP guys in the league at a hard to fill position. That's where the inflated value comes from.

Very true, and Duquette made the distinction that he wanted OBP guys, even though I'm not really seeing it halfway through this year, but thats how you build a winning team. And more than anything we need some defense. I just think that this is going to be a deal that we should pass on, but if we pull the trigger, I wont be terribly upset either.

[bnickle]

Do the Orioles realize that acquiring Headley isn't selling low on Arrieta?

I don't think any hang up is about Arrieta much at all, it is the other two prospects SD wants, and while we can speculate on them we just don;t know for sure who they are or that they've even come off of Machado yet.


The O's probably feel like Arrieta is a solid #1 piece to a trade while the Padres may feel like he's only the second piece in a deal. If that is the case I can see why the O's might feel like Arrieta's value is too low.

[Mackus]

I just dont think a guy batting .277 with 12 HR's and 51 RBI's and 105 K's is worth giving up 3 prospects.

It's not fair to use his numbers without putting them in the proper context. The appeal of Headley is the overwhelmingly likely scenario (IMO) in which his numbers in a new park would be far more similar to his road numbers (which are consistently, year-in and year-out, far better than at Petco, and getting even better over recent years) than his overall numbers.

He's not going to be a 20+ HR guy even away from Petco, but I would definitely expect him to be in the .840-.850 OPS range, which would place him about 5th among all MLB 3B the last couple years. That's worth giving up a struggling SP and any two of our prospects below Schoop (really C/C+ level prospects).

[JeremyStrain]

Do the Orioles realize that acquiring Headley isn't selling low on Arrieta?

Not really sure, but something doesn't smell right. Either they feel like Arrieta is close to straight up value for Headley, Schoop and Delmonico were the other 2 (I might have pause at this one, but that's just me), or SD is floating names to try to make the price more concrete from other teams before tomorrow and he is def. going to be moved.

Not sure what is up, but the day before the deadline it's very interesting names are being dropped. I'm not the only one who thinks something is up.

[SportsGuy]

Not really sure, but something doesn't smell right. Either they feel like Arrieta is close to straight up value for Headley, Schoop and Delmonico were the other 2 (I might have pause at this one, but that's just me), or SD is floating names to try to make the price more concrete from other teams before tomorrow and he is def. going to be moved.

Not sure what is up, but the day before the deadline it's very interesting names are being dropped. I'm not the only one who thinks something is up.

Do you think Headley gets dealt?

Also, as much as I like Arrieta, let's not overrate him either.(talking about the orioles)

[Pedro Cerrano]

I'm sure this has been said already but it depends on what minor leaguers the Padres want. I have no problem giving them Arrieta for Headley.

[ncicere]

It's not fair to use his numbers without putting them in the proper context. The appeal of Headley is the overwhelmingly likely scenario (IMO) in which his numbers in a new park would be far more similar to his road numbers (which are consistently, year-in and year-out, far better than at Petco, and getting even better over recent years) than his overall numbers.

He's not going to be a 20+ HR guy even away from Petco, but I would definitely expect him to be in the .840-.850 OPS range, which would place him about 5th among all MLB 3B the last couple years. That's worth giving up a struggling SP and any two of our prospects below Schoop (really C/C+ level prospects).

I know Petco is a monster of a park, and if you can hit there, you can hit anywhere. I just dont really want to see Schoop moved. I see him, Machado, Hardy and Davis playing the infield for a long time. Arrieta i feel has had his chance to prove himself, and he simply hasnt. I guess its just a little bit of favoritism on my part but I bet DD does what is best for this team. Like I said if we get him, thats great, if not, thats ok.

[Mackus]

Not really sure, but something doesn't smell right. Either they feel like Arrieta is close to straight up value for Headley, Schoop and Delmonico were the other 2 (I might have pause at this one, but that's just me), or SD is floating names to try to make the price more concrete from other teams before tomorrow and he is def. going to be moved.

The package that most of us were throwing around for Headley the whole time was Schoop, Matusz, and Avery. Well Matusz and Arrieta are a wash aside from personal opinion, so I don't think anyone would have done the previous trade but not do it for Arrieta. And we were already ok with moving Schoop to get back Headley. So the big thing that makes sense that it may be giving pause is potentially upgrading the deal from Avery to Delmonico. Avery is obviously at AAA and near being MLB-ready, but Delmonico has a far higher upside as just a 19 year-old at Delmarva putting up decent BB-rates and power numbers.

Including Delmonico and Schoop as well as one of the starters makes you hesitate a bit. I think ultimately, though, I end up pulling the trigger. Would be great if Duquette can pry him loose for less. He would be a major step towards fixing some of the problems with this team.

[SportsGuy]

It just makes sense to get Richard and one of the 2 lefties.

While I really hate to deal Delmonico or ERod, I think you make that move although I try to move Bridwell and Avery before either of them.

I wonder if a Schoop, Arrieta, Bridwell, Avery and c level prospect get you those 3?

[bnickle]

I just get the feeling Schoop is the sticking point here.

My thought is the O's view Arrieta as a solid #1 piece and Delmonico or Rodriguez as a solid #2 piece. I'm sure they would be willing to give up a 3rd piece but not someone on the level of Schoop. Personally, while I've flip flopped so much on this, I'm not sure that I would disagree with that line of thinking. I would be willing to go Avery or, twisting my arm, Hoes instead of Schoop but that is it.

[JeremyStrain]

Do you think Headley gets dealt?

Also, as much as I like Arrieta, let's not overrate him either.(talking about the orioles)

If you asked yesterday, no. Today, I'm thinking he does. Like I said, if they've got their offers and are keeping him, why do names get leaked 24 hours before the deadline? I think it's like a final warning, this is the package it's going to take. There is no coincidence that the "2 minor leaguers" has never been revealed. That tells me names are being dropped to make a deal happen. If not, it would have happened after the deadline, or all the names would have been dropped.

[bnickle]

If you asked yesterday, no. Today, I'm thinking he does. Like I said, if they've got their offers and are keeping him, why do names get leaked 24 hours before the deadline? I think it's like a final warning, this is the package it's going to take. There is no coincidence that the "2 minor leaguers" has never been revealed. That tells me names are being dropped to make a deal happen. If not, it would have happened after the deadline, or all the names would have been dropped.

Yeah, this make sense. I think DD is playing chicken and just may win. I could see SD coming back tomorrow near the deadline and saying for example ok we'll take Avery instead of Schoop and that might get it done. Of course, they could easily keep Headley too and wait for another day.