86 replies to this topic

[JeremyStrain]

You earned my hostility because you cite other people, and generalities, but you really don't know what you are talking about, those of us who do can tell, where the more casual fan might not. I don't mind at all if you preface this stuff that you are no scout and don't know how to tell good players from bad players, but you don't, you seem to put your opinion (a weak one citing only the general fail rate for prospects, well...duh!) out there as a reporter/journalist/some kind of expert but you have nothing to quantify or explain your reasoning beyond the most common sense baseball cliche...most players don't make it.

If you want a quantified # to put on torque it would have to be measured in a lab. If you are a scout you know what to look for. Strasburg, Feliz, Liriano, Vizcaino (Braves prospect recently traded), Aroldis Chapman...all guys I saw/see more potential for TJ injury than most. Again, combination of velocity, secondary pitches and mechanics. Sure if you wanted to say Bundy who throws near 100mph and his curve is his second best pitch sounds like a combination for TJ considering the pressure the curve puts on the elbow at high velocity would have been an intelligent retort, wrong, but intelligent. I would have countered by saying yes, but he drops down below 80mph for the curve which lessens the impact on the elbow severely. However, you didn't say any of that, you cited that less than half of HS 1st rounders won't make the ML and 9% less than that would get 20 ML wins total.

You can doubt that I've scouted these things all you want...you'd be wrong. And limited number of pitches to determine risk? Seriously? I dismissed your numbers because they are the most general numbers and everyone knows only a tiny fraction of people make it. Nothing ground breaking there. How about the fact that no two prospects are the same and some are better than others. How about the % of #1 overall prospects that don't make it?

How about the fact that shoulder injuries are more troublesome than TJ surgery? How about the success rate for TJ surgery is something like 75-80%? So I don't know why that is such a big deal anyway. How's it affecting Strasburg?
Easy velocity and easy delivery are two different things. BTW.

As for Bundy and MM being surrounded by poop, it's no secret the org. is top heavy and weak overall, no one is saying otherwise, but trading them for established players isn't going to change that, and it shortens the window to surround them with talent from 6 years to 2-3 max. After Bundy, Manny, Schoop, and Gausman, you've got Delmonico and Rodriguez in low A ball that project well but are far from established projects (for the record, same place and shape Schoop was in 2 years ago). Then you've got some guys that might project as good backups in Avery/Hoes maybe they develop some more, probably not.

You are trying to sound like you know what you are talking about by playing the odds and not saying anything about the players themselves. I feel like you've learned at least twice as much as you've ever known about Bundy in this post alone. No one around here is treating them (nor did we Wieters or Matusz) as being the savior and locks, but we do know how to properly value them. Again, you seem to be attempting to lump us in with the casual fans, which 10 min reading this board will tell you is off base.

Sorry if I'm being harsh and you feel attacked, but you made your opinions known in a very public forum, and I just don't agree and think some of them are way off base. Constructive criticism?

/drops mic

[Thyrl]

No apologies necessary. It's fun. Only time will tell just how smart anyone is to covet these prospects.

Since you've pointed out all of the things that I don't know, here's what I do know (shouldn't take long).

1. The Orioles are a Major League team (insert joke here)

2. The value of prospects to a Major League team is measured in the wins those prospects get them or the commodities that can be gotten for them in trade. If neither are here and neither are being traded then their value is zero until they contribute something.

3. The best indications of future performances are relevant past performances (see high school pitchers and their failure rates & Orioles farm system and its failure rate)

4. If the O's traded prospects for Major League talent, they'd have to pay that talent.

5. The O's are pretty good right now for reasons that are difficult to fathom or explain.

6. There's little about this group that suggests keeping them together will lead to future success.

7. The Orioles have no firm commitments to any player not named Adam Jones beyond 2015.

8. The AL East is down now, but won't likely stay that way.

9. Betting on A-ball prospects is and always will be a risky proposition.

10. The Orioles should probably never draft high school players.

11. Roberts, Markakis and Bedard were all home grown prospects who were pretty good at the same time and the O's still stunk.

12. The Orioles haven't been real players in free agency since Miguel Tejada. (see #3)

13. The more I hear about Denver Bundy the more he sounds like Todd Marinovich's dad.

14. You're hate is much more entertaining than indifference.

15. Manny Machado probably won't be the #3 prospect in baseball when the next list comes out.

16. Anyone claiming to have Bundy "scouted" after 73 A-ball innings has probably already gotten more of my attention than they deserve.

17. Even after 14 years of losing and empty promises the Orioles still have some fans convinced that they're on the way to being contenders in a couple of years.

18. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

19. Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

20. I once traded 10 Todd Van Poppel rookie cards for 1 Rickey Henderson rookie.

[bnickle]

[Mackus]

Agreed. That was a major waste of time. And I'm not doing anything right now.

The major point seems to be that because the Orioles have been impressively bad for a very long time, that they shouldn't try to do things that intelligent organizations do.

[JeremyStrain]

No apologies necessary. It's fun. Only time will tell just how smart anyone is to covet these prospects.

Since you've pointed out all of the things that I don't know, here's what I do know (shouldn't take long).

1. The Orioles are a Major League team (insert joke here)
Thank you for illustrating the point made by others about certain people's bias at WNST
2. The value of prospects to a Major League team is measured in the wins those prospects get them or the commodities that can be gotten for them in trade. If neither are here and neither are being traded then their value is zero until they contribute something.
Call it "future earnings." You can't just pretend assets don't exist because they aren't at the ML level, this is a franchise, not a one year sports team.
3. The best indications of future performances are relevant past performances (see high school pitchers and their failure rates & Orioles farm system and its failure rate)
This isn't the housing market and comps are worthless
4. If the O's traded prospects for Major League talent, they'd have to pay that talent.
Oh, back to Angelos being cheap...that's original.
5. The O's are pretty good right now for reasons that are difficult to fathom or explain.
Correct.
6. There's little about this group that suggests keeping them together will lead to future success.
Also correct.
7. The Orioles have no firm commitments to any player not named Adam Jones beyond 2015.
Not technically true, all those players that haven't played for the ML team they control for at least 6 years, and the younger arb-elligible players are still committed to.
8. The AL East is down now, but won't likely stay that way.
Truth.
9. Betting on A-ball prospects is and always will be a risky proposition.
True, but building a successful franchise heavily revolves around being able to do just that, and either maximizing value, or knowing to keep them.
10. The Orioles should probably never draft high school players.
False, although their history of development is terrible, it's chicken or the egg to know if it's the team or the players, and eliminating over half of the available draft pool would just be stupid (also textbook casual fan response)
11. Roberts, Markakis and Bedard were all home grown prospects who were pretty good at the same time and the O's still stunk.
Yep, good core, terrible job of supplying a supporting cast. Poor FA signings, even worse drafting. That's on the previous regime.
12. The Orioles haven't been real players in free agency since Miguel Tejada. (see #3)
True, while the argument is valid that before a team has enough cost controlled core, it's stupid to try.
13. The more I hear about Denver Bundy the more he sounds like Todd Marinovich's dad.
Denver is a good dude.
14. You're hate is much more entertaining than indifference.
*It's your, not you're. Aren't you supposed to be a writer or something? No hate what so ever, don't take my pointing out how little you know about baseball as anything more than boredom.
15. Manny Machado probably won't be the #3 prospect in baseball when the next list comes out.
Possible, not probable, and there are multiple lists.
16. Anyone claiming to have Bundy "scouted" after 73 A-ball innings has probably already gotten more of my attention than they deserve.
How little you know about scouting or me for that matter is almost amusing, if it weren't so sad with what you do for work
17. Even after 14 years of losing and empty promises the Orioles still have some fans convinced that they're on the way to being contenders in a couple of years.
Even funnier you think you know me since I've been one of their harshest critics for YEARS, and again, textbook casual fan response.
18. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

19. Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

20. I once traded 10 Todd Van Poppel rookie cards for 1 Rickey Henderson rookie.

Responses in bold to save time. I hope your boss reads this stuff.

[DJ MC]

Responses in bold to save time. I hope your boss reads this stuff.

I could make a joke about Dundalk and reading but I already got in trouble for the whole "broad brush" thing...

[Coker]

Well then...