40 replies to this topic

[BSLMikeLowe]

Louisville makes sense. They have an arena, it's a basketball-loving region, and there are no other pro-teams in the city (the NBA historically likes the opportunities presented in those types of markets).

 

It's really pathetic that Baltimore can't get its act together though.

[SportsGuy]

This is local delusional stuff. Baltimore doesn't show up to playoff caliber baseball, and we want to add 41 basketball games in a pipe dream of a new arena? Not even close to a possibility.

Agreed.

And not only would filling the seats be an issue, the skyboxes would be a struggle as well.

[Mike in STL]

I'd take an NBA team if an NHL team comes with it.

At least with the NHL more than 3 teams have a real shot at winning it all.

NBA is so watered down it's nuts. They need less teams, not more.

[DJ MC]

Report: NBA Owners Rejecting Expansion

[mweb08]

The NBA has the talent and appeal to expand, but the issue as that article says is the owners having to split their piece of the pie with 2 more owners.

[DJ MC]

The NBA has the talent and appeal to expand, but the issue as that article says is the owners having to split their piece of the pie with 2 more owners.

Part of the reason they're was so much expansion in the 1990s was that there were more cities (and owners) that wanted teams. So the leagues could charge ever-larger sums as expansion fees. Now as national media money becomes more important to the different leagues, the owners are learning that the short-term influx from most of these markets isn't worth the long-term additional split of the money.

I think that of the three top leagues, the most likely one to expand is MLB. National media money is less important there then in the NFL or NBA.

[BSLMikeLowe]

I bet if it were logistically feasible they'd be much more open to overseas expansion.

[DJ MC]

I bet if it were logistically feasible they'd be much more open to overseas expansion.

 

Yep. And for the exact same reason.

[SportsGuy]

League should contract not expand.

[Chris B]

Jarrett Sutton‏ @JarrettTSutton 1h1 hour ago

More

NBA Executive: “Jarrett, going to be real honest with you, Kansas City will get an NBA team at some point. It’s a real thing I’ve heard from multiple sources. Just a matter of time. Seattle and KC to me are most valuable markets for league expansion when it makes sense.”

https://twitter.com/...522223073234944

 

 

[NewMarketSean]

Jarrett Sutton‏ @JarrettTSutton 1h1 hour ago

More

NBA Executive: “Jarrett, going to be real honest with you, Kansas City will get an NBA team at some point. It’s a real thing I’ve heard from multiple sources. Just a matter of time. Seattle and KC to me are most valuable markets for league expansion when it makes sense.”

https://twitter.com/...522223073234944

 

 

It's a shame Baltimore isn't even an electrode firing between the synapses of anyone's brain when it comes to NBA or NHL expansion.

 

I mean, the city is a fucking mess, so it's kind of irresponsible to bemoan it now, but, I guess thats why we can't have nice things.

[SportsGuy]

Vegas will get one.

[DJ MC]

The NBA doesn't want to cut up their media pie again.

[BSLMikeLowe]

The NBA doesn't want to cut up their media pie again.

 

Considering expansion fees would be about $2Bn per franchise if they were to do it today, and probably more once they finally get around to it, I think they'll live with a smaller slice of pie for a while in exchange for all that up-front cash. Not to mention there could even be a clause in the media deal that raises its value if the league expands.

[Mike B]

It's a shame Baltimore isn't even an electrode firing between the synapses of anyone's brain when it comes to NBA or NHL expansion.

 

I mean, the city is a fucking mess, so it's kind of irresponsible to bemoan it now, but, I guess thats why we can't have nice things.

Hell the NBA would probably jump at getting a franchise into the "State of the Art" Chicken Box down town.

[DJ MC]

Considering expansion fees would be about $2Bn per franchise if they were to do it today, and probably more once they finally get around to it, I think they'll live with a smaller slice of pie for a while in exchange for all that up-front cash. Not to mention there could even be a clause in the media deal that raises its value if the league expands.

If they do that, and add two franchises, it's $4b once. That's just over $133m for each of the thirty ownership groups. Again, once.

How much is the difference in annual revenues when split over two additional franchises?

[mweb08]

If they were to expand into Europe, I wonder how much additional TV revenue that could add.

[BSLMikeLowe]

If they were to expand into Europe, I wonder how much additional TV revenue that could add.

 

Mexico City sounds more practical (for now), and perhaps even likely. Europe might bring more money, but Latin America is a pretty big market that has largely been untapped by US leagues.

[BSLMikeLowe]

If they do that, and add two franchises, it's $4b once. That's just over $133m for each of the thirty ownership groups. Again, once.

How much is the difference in annual revenues when split over two additional franchises?

 

I think there's too much we don't know in order to accurately answer that question. The current deal has an AAV of $2.6B a season ($24B over 9 years). Divided 30 ways that is about $86.66M per season. Divided 32 ways it's $81.25M per season, a difference of almost $5.5 million for each existing team per season. So that basic math indicates it would be well worth expanding based strictly on the value of the current contract. Obviously they will be thinking farther into the future though.

 

And there are other little tidbits to consider. For starters, I'm basing the above off the AAV of the deal, but in reality it almost certainly pays less in the early years, and more in the latter years. So that means the current owners would give up more with each passing season. But again, maybe the payout escalates if there is expansion (with the thinking being the product is more valuable with the two additional fan bases from the new markets and more choice of games to broadcast)? And obviously that $133M up-front could go a long way if invested somehow (the old "a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow" principle). Finally, the TV contract I mentioned is US-only for national broadcasts....it doesn't include any overseas TV deals they might already have, plus NBA TV, League Pass revenues, league-wide licensing and sponsorships....all of those will be smaller pieces post-expansion.

[BSLMikeLowe]

ESPN: NBA Expansion FAQ: Cities, draft, teams and the league's future