22 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

No, I would value Schoop over Hammel. (Age, years of control.)

Positive evaluations on these 4, all come after '09.

In '10, Matusz had a 4.30 era in 175ip. He was awesome down the stretch. After his lost year last year, there have been some positives this year (as disappointing as his last 5-6 ML starts were). Obviously fastball command is a huge issue, and I have doubts about him ever reaching the ceiling of being a #2 starter, that many thought he could be. I do think he can be a productive starter in Baltimore.

In '10, Arrieta was 6-2, with a 1.85 era at AAA. In '11, he won 10 games in the Majors, despite the bone-spur. His stuff improved this year, and I believe compares to just about anyone. His stuff is so good, that I believe he could be AJ Burnett. His fastball command (and willingness to attack hitters) is so poor, that I don't know if he ever makes it as a starter. I think as a reliever, pitching an inning or two at a time, he gets past the mental implosions that became typical this year. I would like to see him earn another chance as a starter, but don't want to give up on his arm regardless.

In '10, Tillman was 11-7, with a 3.34 era at AAA. In '11, he was back in the Majors, trying to get by with an 87 mph fastball. In '12, he was solid at AAA (while rebuilding his mechanics), and has looked good in 2 of his 3 ML starts. He has shown a return of his velocity, with better movement. Now 24, he has 39 Major League games under his belt.

In '10, Britton was the O's Minor League POY. In '11, he was 11-11, with a 4.61 era in 154.1 ML innings. After looking horrible in July, he rebounded with a competitive August and September. The shoulder injury was scary, but he is back in the rotation and apparently healthy.

The 'poor results, increasing age, an inability to stay consistent and adjust,' tells part of the story and has to be evaluated.... but that only tells part of the story.

What has Tillman done in the majors?

Productive ML starter is easier to find than above average second baseman.

If you feel Arrieta is ultimately a reliever, you would rather have that vs a potential 4+ WAR second baseman?

We have very little positional talent and second base is becoming a huge need.

[BSLChrisStoner]

What has Tillman done in the majors?

Productive ML starter is easier to find than above average second baseman.

If you feel Arrieta is ultimately a reliever, you would rather have that vs a potential 4+ WAR second baseman?

We have very little positional talent and second base is becoming a huge need.

Tillman has shown that on his best days, he can be an effective pitcher in the Majors. Ultimately though, he has proved nothing in the Majors. That does not mean a whole lot to me though. He's healthy, he's throwing well, and his experience has increased. Everything that made him a top prospect, still exists. With his increasing experience, I think he becomes more likely to harness his talent.

Maybe above average 2nd baseman are harder to find than a productive ML starter, but I think the pitching is much more important.

I haven't come to a conclusion on what the future holds for Arrieta. I think he would be an excellent reliever, but don't believe his future is closed as a starter. I know that I would rather have Arrieta and his remaining potential, vs. having Schoop, especially if I'm getting Headley back.

[Nuclear Dish]

The fact that Tillman is only 24 completely slipped my mind. Because we've been tracking him for 3 years, it feels like he's much older than he is.

Britton continues to show a lot of promise, and deserves a chance to reach his full potential with us.

As for Matusz and Arrieta, I'm less enthralled by them, but they certainly have shown flashes.

Matusz had a higher ceiling than any of these guys, and it's really a matter of whether he can get back his mojo. If he does, he's still exceptionally valuable. But I am very skeptical as to whether he's ever going to get it back consistently.

I've never quite understood why people think Arrieta is going to ever be more than a #4 starter. I don't think his stuff is all that great. Maybe he'd be a good bullpen arm, but I would have no problem whatsoever trading him for a talent like Headley.

Overall, I would be willing to deal Arrieta and one of Matusz/Tillman/Britton, but not two of the three without Arrieta.

I think getting Headley for Schoop is also fine, though, since he's got no track record above AA, and we would be replacing an infielder with a more proven, possibly higher ceiling infielder.

But if you can get Headley for Arrieta and Matusz without giving up Schoop, do it.