22 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

Which of these would you prefer to move?

The scenario is a team either wants Schoop or 2 of those pitchers.

[JeremyStrain]

Any 2 of BMat, Tillman and Arrieta and that's my pick no 2nd thought. Britton gives me pause.

[mweb08]

In this question, do we get to pick the two pitchers or would the other team have their choice of them?

[SportsGuy]

In this question, do we get to pick the two pitchers or would the other team have their choice of them?

Any combo, so other team has choice.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'd easily trade Schoop before trading any 2 of the pitchers. Just can not have enough pitching, and I still believe each of the 4 can be contributing members of a pitching staff. Honestly, I still think each of them has the upside of being at-least a 3rd starter, even if I feel less confident about their ability to do.

I love that every one that sees Schoop taking bp,talks about how special it is. People routinely point to the way he squares on a ball, and his bat speed. He's a good prospect, and I believe he will hit. I also believe he figures to be an average at-best 2nd baseman (likely), or 3rd baseman (possible).

If he's at 2nd, his bat will play even better, but his glove will be that much more of a detriment.

Lastly, if this question is posed in regards to getting Headley, you replace a prospective offensive player, with a known-quantity offensive player.

[SportsGuy]

I'd easily trade Schoop before trading any 2 of the pitchers. Just can not have enough pitching, and I still believe each of the 4 can be contributing members of a pitching staff. Honestly, I still think each of them has the upside of being at-least a 3rd starter, even if I feel less confident about their ability to do.

I love that every one that sees Schoop taking bp,talks about how special it is. People routinely point to the way he squares on a ball, and his bat speed. He's a good prospect, and I believe he will hit. I also believe he figures to be an average at-best 2nd baseman (likely), or 3rd baseman (possible).

If he's at 2nd, his bat will play even better, but his glove will be that much more of a detriment.

Lastly, if this question is posed in regards to getting Headley, you replace a prospective offensive player, with a known-quantity offensive player.

Do you not believe he can improve defensively?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Do you not believe he can improve defensively?

I guess I generally believe that with work, anyone can improve defensively - but that your tools are your tools. I've never seen Schoop play, but the prevailing thoughts from those who have; is that he lacks strong lateral speed, or great reactions. Most believe he projects better at 3rd.

Happy to have Schoop, but I don't value him above any of those 4 arms.

[SportsGuy]

I guess I generally believe that with work, anyone can improve defensively - but that your tools are your tools. I've never seen Schoop play, but the prevailing thoughts from those who have; is that he lacks strong lateral speed, or great reactions. Most believe he projects better at 3rd.

Happy to have Schoop, but I don't value him above any of those 4 arms.

Not over ANY of them or any combo of them?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Not over ANY of them or any combo of them?

I value each of the 4 arms individually over Schoop, but in some deals might deal 1 of them ahead of Schoop. If we are talking Headley, I'd most assuredly rather trade Schoop vs. trading 2 of the arms.

[SportsGuy]

I value each of the 4 arms individually over Schoop,

Wow, I think you would be hard pressed to find many who agree with this( not that that matters, just pointing out that I think you would be relatively alone in that opinion).

[BSLChrisStoner]

Wow, I think you would be hard pressed to find many who agree with this( not that that matters, just pointing out that I think you would be relatively alone in that opinion).

Yeah, probably. Of course many of those same evaluators were among the biggest proponents of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, and Britton; prior to their current evaluations on Schoop.

[SportsGuy]

Yeah, probably. Of course many of of those same evaluators were among the biggest proponents of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, and Britton; prior to their current evaluations on Schoop.

Yea but that is relatively meaningless at this point. This question is being asked in current time, not the past.

Those guys have either been hurt or just plain not been a ML caliber pitcher on any consistent basis.

At some point, your evaluation changes because of performance, age, skill set, etc...

BTW, a lot of people felt Arrieta was a reliever.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Yea but that is relatively meaningless at this point. This question is being asked in current time, not the past.

Those guys have either been hurt or just plain not been a ML caliber pitcher on any consistent basis.

At some point, your evaluation changes because of performance, age, skill set, etc...

BTW, a lot of people felt Arrieta was a reliever.

I think I agree with Chris for the most part, except for the possible exception of Arrieta. I think that with having Peterson in place to help these young pitchers out, I feel a lot more optimistic about them rebounding than I would otherwise.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Yea but that is relatively meaningless.

Those guys have either been hurt or just plain not been a ML caliber pitcher on any consistent basis.
At some point, your evaluation changes because of performance, age, skill set, etc...

BTW, a lot of people felt Arrieta was a reliever.

It's only meaningless if you there is now new information that makes you disregard the previous evaluations. Some will say their lack of consistent ML success to date, is enough. For me, it is not. The closest thing to me to 'new information' is the shoulder trouble that Britton experienced. But for me that is still not enough.

Schoop has gone through adjustment periods, but has yet to go through a lot of adversity. That is a large part of his current evaluation.

Regardless of your feelings on these arms, trading them while their value is at a low does not make a lot of sense.

[SportsGuy]

It's only meaningless if you there is now new information that makes you disregard the previous evaluations. Some will say their lack of consistent ML success to date, is enough. For me, it is not. The closest thing to me to 'new information' is the shoulder trouble that Britton experienced. But for me that is still not enough.

Schoop has gone through adjustment periods, but has yet to go through a lot of adversity. That is a large part of his current evaluation.

Regardless of your feelings on these arms, trading them while their value is at a low does not make a lot of sense.

The new info is poor results, increasing age, an inability to stay consistent and adjust.

Thats all new and much more relevant than where these guys were in 2009.

Chris, would you value Hammel over Schoop? If so, did you feel the same way when we acquired Hammel?

For me, I think I would only value Matusz higher.

[SportsGuy]

I think I agree with Chris for the most part, except for the possible exception of Arrieta. I think that with having Peterson in place to help these young pitchers out, I feel a lot more optimistic about them rebounding than I would otherwise.

Sure...this helps.

But they will need to show it on this level..consistently.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Sure...this helps.

But they will need to show it on this level..consistently.

I agree, I also think that we're a little to quick to give up prospects when they come up and struggle for a couple years. These guys are all still very young, and we finally have a program in place.

Young pitching prospects, in Camden Yards, against the AL East. That's a tall order. I'm not trying to make excuses. If we didn't have Peterson, or a GM in place who seems to have a clue about this type of stuff now, I'd be ready to move on in some cases with these kids, but I don't feel that way right now.

[SportsGuy]

I agree, I also think that we're a little to quick to give up prospects when they come up and struggle for a couple years. These guys are all still very young, and we finally have a program in place.

Young pitching prospects, in Camden Yards, against the AL East. That's a tall order. I'm not trying to make excuses. If we didn't have Peterson, or a GM in place who seems to have a clue about this type of stuff now, I'd be ready to move on in some cases with these kids, but I don't feel that way right now.

Well first of all, I'm not giving up on them...just feel they aren't as valuable as Schoop.

Secondly, plenty of young pitching have come up and had success in the AL East.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Well first of all, I'm not giving up on them...just feel they aren't as valuable as Schoop.

Secondly, plenty of young pitching have come up and had success in the AL East.

Not from our organization. But our new focus on this finally has be optimistic that that's about to change. These guys are young enough to still turn it around.

Also - to be clear, I know you weren't giving up on them. But I've seen around the net where plenty people have, and that's ridiculous.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The new info is poor results, increasing age, an inability to stay consistent and adjust.

Thats all new and much more relevant than where these guys were in 2009.

Chris, would you value Hammel over Schoop? If so, did you feel the same way when we acquired Hammel?

For me, I think I would only value Matusz higher.

No, I would value Schoop over Hammel. (Age, years of control.)

Positive evaluations on these 4, all come after '09.

In '10, Matusz had a 4.30 era in 175ip. He was awesome down the stretch. After his lost year last year, there have been some positives this year (as disappointing as his last 5-6 ML starts were). Obviously fastball command is a huge issue, and I have doubts about him ever reaching the ceiling of being a #2 starter, that many thought he could be. I do think he can be a productive starter in Baltimore.

In '10, Arrieta was 6-2, with a 1.85 era at AAA. In '11, he won 10 games in the Majors, despite the bone-spur. His stuff improved this year, and I believe compares to just about anyone. His stuff is so good, that I believe he could be AJ Burnett. His fastball command (and willingness to attack hitters) is so poor, that I don't know if he ever makes it as a starter. I think as a reliever, pitching an inning or two at a time, he gets past the mental implosions that became typical this year. I would like to see him earn another chance as a starter, but don't want to give up on his arm regardless.

In '10, Tillman was 11-7, with a 3.34 era at AAA. In '11, he was back in the Majors, trying to get by with an 87 mph fastball. In '12, he was solid at AAA (while rebuilding his mechanics), and has looked good in 2 of his 3 ML starts. He has shown a return of his velocity, with better movement. Now 24, he has 39 Major League games under his belt.

In '10, Britton was the O's Minor League POY. In '11, he was 11-11, with a 4.61 era in 154.1 ML innings. After looking horrible in July, he rebounded with a competitive August and September. The shoulder injury was scary, but he is back in the rotation and apparently healthy.

The 'poor results, increasing age, an inability to stay consistent and adjust,' tells part of the story and has to be evaluated.... but that only tells part of the story.