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Hypothetically..


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:20 PM

Hypothetically, I could picture a possible O's roster - based on existing internal options - by next June looking like:

Markakis RF
Reimold DH
Jones CF
Wieters C
Hardy SS/3rd
Davis 1st
Machado 3rd/SS
Schoop 2nd
Hoes LF

Teagarden, Avery, Andino, Betemit (Pearce, Flaherty, Roberts)

Hammel, Chen, Britton, Matusz, Bundy
Johnson, Strop, Arrieta, Tillman, Lindstrom, O'Day, Wada (Hunter, S. Johnson, Pomeranz, Patton, Gonzalez, Schrader)


While there are things about that hypothetical roster I like, it has more questions than definitive answers.
Even if this team fades over the next couple of months, I still like a lot of the existing core.

I'll have to spend more time looking at potential options, but the thing that jumps out to me the most is the rotation. You have to add another couple of arms that are likely to provide some regular production. If you can obtain that, everything else can pretty much slide into place. I wonder if there any arms like Chen, that the O's are already targeting?

If Betemit is not moved, you probably pencil him as the starting DH. As disappointed as I am about Reimold's injury, (and as unwilling as I would be to again 'hand' him a starting position), I'd anticipate Reimold obtaining regular ab's if multiple options are not added.

Hoes has had a nice year, and his obp skills could help. I'd still rather have more of a sure thing in LF though.

I like Davis being part of the roster. I like him even more now that he has shown the ability to be serviceable in the OF. I'd still prefer him at 1st. Ideally, he would be a bench option that would find some regular 400+ ab's.

As bad as Hardy has looked the last few months, I expect he will rebound. I'd prefer him not be batting 5th (or maybe even 6th) though. You need another middle of the lineup force.

#2 SportsGuy

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:25 PM

Not a contender...85 win team at best IMO.

#3 Mackus

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:29 PM

I'd be a bit surprised is Schoop is up as early as next June. But, he is at AA now so I suppose he's not that far away. Bundy and Machado wouldn't be surprising to see them up that early, but it's still possible they take a bit longer than expected.

You also can't completely rule out Roberts at 2B next year. While he may be done for this year, he should be able to actually work out over this offseason and gain back a lot of the muscle he was clearly lacking this year, turning him into solely a singles hitter. I'm definitely not guaranteeing him anything, he'll have to show in ST that he's capable of holding down the spot, but I don't think that he'll be as poor at the plate as he was in his brief time this season. I still think he can have something in the .675-.700 OPS range, which would be adequate from 2B.

We'll definitely need help in the rotation. I would bring in two starting pitchers, hopefully one being Greinke. I'd go into the season with Greinke, Hammel, Chen, other FA or trade-acquired starter, and one spot for one of the young starters with Bundy breathing down their necks.

#4 mweb08

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:30 PM

Well 3 of those guys wouldn't likely be up with the team from the start due to service time and development issues, and some may not even be up by June.

I think it would make sense to trade Hardy, add a 3B/2B and maybe a LF. One very good SP would be great as well.

#5 bnickle

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:31 PM

I like the long term potential of that offense. Obviously, Hardy isn't a long term piece and I'm still not sold on Davis either but I I'm starting to believe in a core of

Markakis
Jones
Wieters
Machado
Schoop
Hoes


I also do believe we can be fine at DH with Reimold/Davis


So basically, offensively I'm looking for my longterm corner IF guys. Other than that I'm fine with riding with what we have in the system.


Pitching is still the question mark for me. I believe in the longterm core prospects of nobody but Bundy. I want to hope and think that Hammel,Chen, and at least 1 of Matusz/Arrieta/Tillman can be part of that core but I'm not confident. I mean Hammel still has to prove to a point this year isn;t a fluke, beyond that we would need to lock him up to a multiyear deal. Chen, I don;t know if the league eventually catches up with him or not. I feel like it could though he would still be a part of the pen.


I feel better about having a real solid core of guys here than I have in a long time. I really do believe we actually have a real core of 6 or 7 guys but obviously we still have to get better, especially in developing minor league talent and having depth.

#6 mweb08

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:35 PM

We'll definitely need help in the rotation. I would bring in two starting pitchers, hopefully one being Greinke. I'd go into the season with Greinke, Hammel, Chen, other FA or trade-acquired starter, and one spot for one of the young starters with Bundy breathing down their necks.


I'd like to just add one starter and Greinke would be ideal.

Assuming they aren't dealt, or at least most of them aren't, I'd want one spot reserved for the collection of Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, and Tillman. Plus someone like Gonzalez could even factor into this. Maybe Wada too. 2 of these guys would round out the rotation to start the season, but then Bundy would hopefully be pushing for a spot.

I'd rather let one of those guys (two to start) be in the rotation then go out and sign what is likely an overpaid mediocre pitcher.

#7 SportsGuy

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:39 PM

I dont see Hoes as being part of a core.

#8 ncicere

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:40 PM

This team has tried the approach of trying to develop starters but I have just about had the inconsistency. I tried watching Tillman last night and against a Twins team that is so much less talented than the rst of the league I couldn't believe the shelacking he took. The Reynolds error didnt help much but he was leaving pitches up and hittable. I am just not sold on this young core of Arrieta, Matusz, Tillman. Britton has a chance to help his team and his bullpen tonight, and I hope to see something out of him. Greinke would be ideal, but with the way this team is playing I feel like the closer we get to the 31st, getting Greinke or Garza is going to be for nothing.
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#9 Mackus

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:44 PM

I'd like to just add one starter and Greinke would be ideal.

Assuming they aren't dealt, or at least most of them aren't, I'd want one spot reserved for the collection of Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, and Tillman. Plus someone like Gonzalez could even factor into this. Maybe Wada too. 2 of these guys would round out the rotation to start the season, but then Bundy would hopefully be pushing for a spot.

I'd rather let one of those guys (two to start) be in the rotation then go out and sign what is likely an overpaid mediocre pitcher.

If Greinke is the guy, then I'm ok with just adding one starter, since he is pretty close to a lock to be excellent at least for the next couple years. If we miss out on him and can only get some less expensive guys, then I'd probably like to get two. How well those guys look over the remainder of the season could change my mind a bit, but if the offseason started today, I'd definitely be trying to fill two spots.

#10 bnickle

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:44 PM

I dont see Hoes as being part of a core.


I've completely bought into Hoes. Granted, I understand I'm out on a limb but I'm buying that he just keeps getting better is a legit ML OFer. All Star level?? Unlikely, but certainly part of a core on a winning ball club.

#11 SportsGuy

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:46 PM

I've completely bought into Hoes. Granted, I understand I'm out on a limb but I'm buying that he just keeps getting better and becomes a legit ML OFer. All Star level?? Unlikely, but certainly part of a core on a winning ball club.

Certainly possible that he can be a 350+ OBP guy. I guess its possible but I wouldn't count on him and certainly wouldn't mention him as part of the core.

We need a real upgrade in LF and another top flight CIer..along with a TOR starter.

#12 ncicere

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:50 PM

The Orioles need a frontline starter, a NEW and improved second baseman, and a proven corner infielder. The bullpen is going to be fine. Had Josh Bell panned out one of these problems wouldnt be a concern and Reynolds wouldnt be such a liability. B-Rob is done by the looks of it and Andino is an average second baseman. Duquette needs to acquire proven talent, not hopeful talent
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#13 bnickle

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 03:53 PM

I'm spending my money(resources) on the CI spots and SP and riding with Hoes. I understand people not considering Hoes as part of a core yet. That's pretty much expected at this point. I'm just buying in his ability and progression. I think he can be pretty darn close to Brady ANderson. By that I mean, high OBP, mid teens HR power with possibly a couple of 20 HRs season thrown in and 20 SB years. The only thing I honestly have little feel about is his defense. Obviously, Brady played at a solid CF and LF.

#14 Mackus

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:01 PM

I'm spending my money(resources) on the CI spots and SP and riding with Hoes. I understand people not considering part of a core yet. That's pretty much expected at this point. I'm just buying in his ability and progression. I think he can be pretty darn close to Brady ANderson. By that I mean, high OBP, mid teens HR power with possibly a 20 HR season thrown in or two and 20 SB yearsl. The only thing I honestly have little feel about is his defense. Obviously, Brady played at a solid CF and LF.

I wouldn't count on Hoes to give us anything at this point, but he certainly could become a part that is useful. He should get a chance to show what he can do later this year.

I agree that we should focus more on adding a SP (or two), a 3B, and maybe even 2B over LF at this point (Davis in LF may also be an option, though I think he's our 1B next year).

I don't know if I ever really expect him to be as good as you are hoping he can, though his numbers over the last year are promising. I don't think he'll ever have 20 HR power, or anything particularly close to it. I'd think he'll be in single digits more often than he's into the double digits. I do think he projects as a .280/.360 type AVG/OBP guy which can definitely still be useful even if he doesn't have much power and isn't anything special defensively.

#15 bnickle

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:05 PM

He's 21 and works hard at his craft by all reports. I think he's a guy who will bulk up a bit and be able to get to being a consistent double digit HR guy. Same thing with steals once he learns the craft a bit. I just got a feeling about this kid. Gonna be a heady, hard working, hard nosed ball player that people in Baltimore love.

#16 Mackus

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 04:07 PM

He's 21 and works hard at his craft by all reports. I think he's a guy who will bulk up a bit and be able to get to being a consistent double digit HR guy. Same thing with steals once he learns the craft a bit. I just got a feeling about this kid. Gonna be a heady, hard working, hard nosed ball player that people in Baltimore love.

I agree except for the power.




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