24 replies to this topic

[LanceRinker]

http://burningdowntheyard.com/?p=3183

I wrote up a piece earlier about who the O's top three trade chips are, IMO, and was wondering who you all think the Orioles top trade chips currently are?

I'm talking realistic trade chips - players the team would trade this season to continue to make a playoff push or to build for next season.

[BobPhelan]

Schoop, Strop, JJ

Reynolds, Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman

[LanceRinker]

Schoop, Strop, JJ

Reynolds, Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman

Why do you think Schoop is the top trade chip the O's have? My thinking is that JJ is number 1 because he's not a FA until 2015 and can contribute immediately. That is of course, assuming the O's fall out of the playoff race.

If they're still (legitimately) in it by the deadline then it becomes Schoop and Strop.

[SportsGuy]

Schoop, Johnson, Hardy

[mweb08]

It depends on what a team is looking for. If they want a prospect/young player with a lot of team control, I'd say Britton, Schoop, and Matusz, and Arrieta.

If they want a bullpen arm, than Johnson is quite valuable as is Strop to a lesser degree. Other arms have value too.

Hardy is valuable to a team looking for a SS.

But of course trading these guys depends a lot on what the O's are doing too. Hardy and JJ won't likely be dealt if the O's are in contention.

[JTrea81]

Schoop, Matusz, Arrieta, Hoes, Avery, Delmonico

[Mackus]

Schoop, Matusz, Arrieta, Hoes, Avery, Delmonico

Agreed, although I think Matusz and Arrieta are interchangeable depending on the eye of the beholder. I can see a team preferring Matusz thinking he is more easily fixable and I can see a team preferring Arrieta for the same reason.

Unless the team falls to under .500 between now and the deadline we aren't going to be trading Johnson, Hardy, or Strop (very slim possibility on Strop if he's a primary piece in a Headley or maybe even Greinke trade). Even if we fall out of the race, I don't expect any of these guys to be moved and I don't necessarily disagree with that approach.

[Oriole85]

FWIW, Hardy has a limited no-trade clause. I also don't think they signed him to a three year deal, which he is in year one of with the intention of trading him this year. I'm disappointed in his offense, but he's still been pretty good on defense. Yes, I know Machado, but let's cross that bridge when it gets sooner.

[Mackus]

I like the idea of trading for Headley and then breaking Machado in at 2B next year sometime between May and July (assuming Roberts isn't back or isn't effective).

Then after next year, if you think he's ready, you can slide Machado to SS and trade Hardy. Hopefully Hardy has a better year next year than this year offensively and will be worth more in return.

[JeremyStrain]

I like the idea of trading for Headley and then breaking Machado in at 2B next year sometime between May and July (assuming Roberts isn't back or isn't effective).

Then after next year, if you think he's ready, you can slide Machado to SS and trade Hardy. Hopefully Hardy has a better year next year than this year offensively and will be worth more in return.

Just because a guy plays short you cant assume he can play 2nd. From what ive seen i would bet against it actually.

[SportsGuy]

I like the idea of trading for Headley and then breaking Machado in at 2B next year sometime between May and July (assuming Roberts isn't back or isn't effective).

Then after next year, if you think he's ready, you can slide Machado to SS and trade Hardy. Hopefully Hardy has a better year next year than this year offensively and will be worth more in return.

Trade for Headley now, move Hardy in the offseason if it looks like Machado will be ready by JUne at the latest...Someone like Andino can fill in at SS in the meantime.

[Mackus]

Trade for Headley now, move Hardy in the offseason if it looks like Machado will be ready by JUne at the latest...Someone like Andino can fill in at SS in the meantime.

If we're trying to compete next year (which I think we would be considering this year we're much improved and would be adding pieces) then I prefer the option of keeping the established player until the new guy proves he is ready, rather than dealing away the established guy before you're even planning on calling up the new guy.

I wouldn't be completely opposed to your plan, especially if AllStar's point about Machado not being able to play 2nd is true (I tend to think he'd be fine there after a could weeks, I can't remember a SS who wasn't able to also play 2nd at least marginally well), but unless you can get a real solid return for Hardy in the offseason and are really, really certain that Machado will be ready once his 20 days in the minors are up, I'd be a bit more conservative.

[SportsGuy]

If we're trying to compete next year (which I think we would be considering this year we're much improved and would be adding pieces) then I prefer the option of keeping the established player until the new guy proves he is ready, rather than dealing away the established guy before you're even planning on calling up the new guy.

I wouldn't be completely opposed to your plan, especially if AllStar's point about Machado not being able to play 2nd is true (I tend to think he'd be fine there after a could weeks, I can't remember a SS who wasn't able to also play 2nd at least marginally well), but unless you can get a real solid return for Hardy in the offseason and are really, really certain that Machado will be ready once his 20 days in the minors are up, I'd be a bit more conservative.

You just have to pick up Hardy's production at another position, like first or LF.

[Mackus]

You just have to pick up Hardy's production at another position, like first or LF.

Which we've been able to do so well over the years

[SportsGuy]

Which we've been able to do so well over the years

Well, if they can't get 2 WAR or so(which is all we need plus the addition of MM) out of first or LF, we aren't winning anything anyway, so I would rather have the salary and younger players with more service time.

[Mackus]

Well, if they can't get 2 WAR or so(which is all we need plus the addition of MM) out of first or LF, we aren't winning anything anyway, so I would rather have the salary and younger players with more service time.

That's if rookie Manny Machado is a solid player right out of the gate.

His minor league record indicates that he'll probably struggle for a while, before figuring it out and starting to dominate. Maybe he struggles for a couple weeks, maybe it's a couple months, or maybe it's the whole year.

It's definitely a double-edged sword. We're not going to be a powerhouse next year by any estimation, so if we're going to compete, we're going to have to optimize our roster as best as possible. Trading Hardy away for someone to fill another hole (2P, LF, 2B, 1B) and then getting solid production from Machado at SS would do that. But, if Machado struggles or isn't ready to until further into the year (he still hasn't played at AAA yet, we're projecting a big jump) and you gotta go longer with Andino (yuk!), then that's not an optimal use of the roster either because you may be losing any gains you make from the player you swap Hardy for.

I think keeping Hardy to start the year and bringing Machado along slowly, possibly at 2B, is sort of hedging your bets on those two possibilities. You've still got Hardy giving you production while Machado adjusts and then could trade him during the season (though possibly not for as much in return, but perhaps he hits really well and actually increases his value, always a small chance of that) if Machado does enough to make you confident he can take over at SS.

[SportsGuy]

That's if rookie Manny Machado is a solid player right out of the gate.

His minor league record indicates that he'll probably struggle for a while, before figuring it out and starting to dominate. Maybe he struggles for a couple weeks, maybe it's a couple months, or maybe it's the whole year.

It's definitely a double-edged sword. We're not going to be a powerhouse next year by any estimation, so if we're going to compete, we're going to have to optimize our roster as best as possible. Trading Hardy away for someone to fill another hole (2P, LF, 2B, 1B) and then getting solid production from Machado at SS would do that. But, if Machado struggles or isn't ready to until further into the year (he still hasn't played at AAA yet, we're projecting a big jump) and you gotta go longer with Andino (yuk!), then that's not an optimal use of the roster either because you may be losing any gains you make from the player you swap Hardy for.

I think keeping Hardy to start the year and bringing Machado along slowly, possibly at 2B, is sort of hedging your bets on those two possibilities. You've still got Hardy giving you production while Machado adjusts and then could trade him during the season (though possibly not for as much in return, but perhaps he hits really well and actually increases his value, always a small chance of that) if Machado does enough to make you confident he can take over at SS.

I have little doubt that MM can be a 1.5-2 WAR SS next year.

[Mackus]

I have little doubt that MM can be a 1.5-2 WAR SS next year.

I have a decent amount of doubt, at least right now. I'll have much less if he continues to hit really well at Bowie for the next month and then gets to Norfolk and holds his own there as well.

[LanceRinker]

I see some people saying we have a hole to fill at 2b, which we do - am I the only one who believes Schoop could be our 2b of the future if he's not traded?

[SportsGuy]

I have a decent amount of doubt, at least right now. I'll have much less if he continues to hit really well at Bowie for the next month and then gets to Norfolk and holds his own there as well.

Cliff Pennington, Bartlett and Jamey Carroll had WAR in the 1.5-2.2 area last year.

I am pretty sure MM can be on their level.