80 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

This NBC Sports / Posnanski article on Bryce Harper potentially getting a $500M contract was discussed some elsewhere on the board...

 

There was some slight stretching from Posnanski, but ultimately the points about a premier FA hitting the market at the right time is spot on.

 

The conversation won't be much different for Manny.

 

While Manny is under O's control for the next 3 years, it's hard for me to believe he will remain in Baltimore for the 2019 season on; if the O's don't find a way to get him extended this Winter.

 

 

What's the absolute minimum deal you believe it will take to extend him?  A match of Trout's current contract?

 

 

[Matt_P]

The conversation won't be much different for Manny.

 

While Manny is under O's control for the next 3 years, it's hard for me to believe he will remain in Baltimore for the 2019 season on; if the O's don't find a way to get him extended this Winter.

Yes, the conversation will be different. Harper just had the best offensive season in the last ten years and he's not yet in his prime. If he can repeat it for another three years then you can make the argument he's better offensively than Barry Bonds. Machado may have had a career year, but he wasn't great. Machado's defense won't tip the scales.

 

Then again, I think the Posanski article was conservative. I think that if Harper has three more years with a wRC+ in the 160 range (elite but not off the scales) that he'll get 15 years and $600M minimum with a few opt-outs. Wouldn't be shocked at $750M. How much would you pay to get a HOFer in his prime? 

 

If Machado has a strong 2016, then I can see Trout's contract being a comparable. If he doesn't then I don't think he gets $30M even in the FA market.

[aurelius]

Wonder if they can get him in touch with Adam Jones' agent?

[NewMarketSean]

0.0 chance Machado is an Oriole in 2019 if they don't extend him and I think the chances of that happening grow more unlikely each day with the way the team has failed to improve the roster for 2 straight seasons now.

 

So 3 more seasons until Machado gets a $250-$300 million contract in FA. No way he signs a $100 million extension now.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Yes, the conversation will be different. Harper just had the best offensive season in the last ten years and he's not yet in his prime. If he can repeat it for another three years then you can make the argument he's better offensively than Barry Bonds. Machado may have had a career year, but he wasn't great. Machado's defense won't tip the scales.

 

Then again, I think the Posanski article was conservative. I think that if Harper has three more years with a wRC+ in the 160 range (elite but not off the scales) that he'll get 15 years and $600M minimum with a few opt-outs. Wouldn't be shocked at $750M. How much would you pay to get a HOFer in his prime? 

 

If Machado has a strong 2016, then I can see Trout's contract being a comparable. If he doesn't then I don't think he gets $30M even in the FA market.

 

I said the conversation won't be much different... I didn't say it wouldn't be different.

Harper a bit younger, a bit more offense....  those things matter.

 

Machado's own combination of his age, project-able offense, and superior defense will earn him plenty though... even if he doesn't quite reach Harper's highs.

It's not crazy to think Machado is one of the 10 best players in the game now, and if he reached FA would be doing so as one of the 5 or so best overall at age 26... he's going to get insane money from someone.

 

If Machado gets to FA, won't shock me if he is in the neighborhood of Stanton's contract.

[Matt_P]

What's the absolute minimum deal you believe it will take to extend him?  A match of Trout's current contract?

 

I'd use A-Ram and Reyes as my comps. Also use David Wright 2nd and Miguel Cabreras 1st contract. They're mostly old and not the best but such is life. With another good year, I'd value his free agent years at about $24M each.

 

In 2017, a six year deal would bring him to his 30/31 year or young enough to get another big contract. That means he'd either want an opt out after the fifth or sixth year or a contract that ends around that time.

 

I think a five year deal starting next year for $100M with a $25M player option for year six sounds about right. It would cover two arb years and three free agent years. I don't see the Os offering an opt-out or a 13 year deal. He's simply not an elite bat at this point of his career and it's questionable whether it will ever get there.

 

It's not crazy to think Machado is one of the 10 best players in the game now, and if he reached FA would be doing so as one of the 5 or so best overall at age 26... he's going to get insane money from someone.

 

Third base defense doesn't get paid and he simply isn't elite offensively. Heyward didn't get crazy money despite being young. He just got more years than he may have otherwise and a few opt-outs.

 

That said, inflation will help him as time goes on. If he hits FA, I think he gets a 10 year deal at maybe $275M presuming his performance stays stable. Hard to predict inflation.

[papasmurfbell]

Wonder if they can get him in touch with Adam Jones' agent?

I just took a look.  Boras is his agent.  He will not sign early then.  So get your fill of him now bc he will be on another team in 2020.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I just took a look.  Boras is his agent.  He will not sign early then.  So get your fill of him now bc he will be on another team in 2020.

 

Boras is neither Jones' nor Manny's agent.

[SportsGuy]

8/150

[RShack]

I just took a look.  Boras is his agent.  He will not sign early then.  So get your fill of him now bc he will be on another team in 2020.

 

He got rid of Boras...

[papasmurfbell]

Boras did his first deal so that is all I could go by.  Who is it now?

[SportsGuy]

https://www.baseball...timore-orioles/

Lozano

[papasmurfbell]

So anyone know what he is about?

[SportsGuy]

So anyone know what he is about?

Making money

[papasmurfbell]

Of course they all are.  But Boras refuses to work with teams and guys like Jones' agent did.  

[SportsGuy]

Donaldson just got a 2/29 deal to cover his final 2 arb years.

That would give Manny 3/34.5 for his arb years(including 2016).

Average something around 25 million, give or take, for 4-6 years of free agency and that should put you in the area of a done deal.

[dude]

I'd still suggest that the contract value is 6/105-110....it's that same neighborhood.

 

You take 6/110 now, structure it for the team a little and you have an opportunity to get a second contract in the 10/200-300 range.

 

I'd have to go back and verify the math, but iirc, 6/110 makes him the second highest contract after Trout and slightly exceeds the FA AAV of Freddie Freeman's deal (8/135).

 

There's only 3 or 4 things guys look for

1) money (total, years, timing)

2) opportunity to win (organizational belief)

3) comfort (team, fans, city)

4) personal goals (position, legacy)

 

If the answer to 1) is 6/110....then what else needs to happen, to enable it to happen? 

[Mackus]

I'd push as hard as I can (just shy of the line of where he'd have to say "6 or 3, your choice") for more than six years. 

 

AAV is a secondary concern for me, I wouldn't haggle too much on that.  Give me Manny throughout his prime and I think we can build a winner around him with whatever is left over.

[SportsGuy]

I'd push as hard as I can (just shy of the line of where he'd have to say "6 or 3, your choice") for more than six years.

AAV is a secondary concern for me, I wouldn't haggle too much on that. Give me Manny throughout his prime and I think we can build a winner around him with whatever is left over.

If they are going spend 140-160M in payroll, having a 30M player is no big deal.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: $500 Million For Bryce Harper Might Still Be a Bargain

 

I think we can safely assume that if Machado's agent believes Harper is going to get a $500M contract, that Machado is not going to be looking to sign an extension for $150M.