199 replies to this topic

[Mike in STL]

Auburn (+6.5) @ Arkansas
Iowa St. @ Baylor OVER 74.5
Alabama (-15) vs. Tennessee
Marshall (-28.5) vs. North Texas
Wisconsin @ Illinois UNDER 45.5
Mid Tenn St. @ LA Tech OVER 63
Northern Illinois (-28) vs. East. Michigan
Vanderbilt (+1) vs. Missouri
Wash St. @ Arizona OVER 75
Boise St. (-35) vs. Wyoming

Record: 43-18-1

Ugh. Auburn could have coverd about eight times.

Baylor decided to take a quarter off. But I always bet with the streak because you can only lose once. Thought 74 was a gimme if they scored 60.

Expected more from Bama at home.

North Texas didnt suck enough.

Need Boise big to avoid my first losing week of the season.

[Mike in STL]

Bah. 4-6.

47-24-1.

Becoming more human at this every week.

[RShack]

Bah. 4-6.

47-24-1.

Becoming more human at this every week.

 

It's like the craps table... you need to know when to walk away  

[Mike in STL]

 
It's like the craps table... you need to know when to walk away  

Very true. This is just for fun though. Havent placed an actual bet all year.

[SBTarheel]

SMU +13 ov USF

LSU -16 ov Western Kentucky

Indiana +16.5 ov Michigan State

Toledo -14 ov UMASS

FSU -6.5 ov Georgia Tech

UNDER 35 Mizzou/Vandy

OVER 73 TT/Oklahoma

OVER 61.5 Texas A&M/Ole Miss

Wazzu +7.5 ov Arizona 

Old Dominion +13 ov FIU (outright upset of the week)

5-5..as blah as you can get. 

[Pedro Cerrano]

3-2

[Pedro Cerrano]

 

We did it!  We got to above .500!  Yay!

 

YTD Record:  24-23

 

Onto the Pickz!

 

Notre Dame (-10) at Temple

Louisville at Wake Forest UNDER 42

Southern Mississippi (-24) vs. UTEP

Florida (-3) vs. Georgia

Western Kentucky (-24) vs. Old Dominion

NFL Bonus:  Panthers -7 vs Colts

 

RShack:  Virginia (+6) vs. GT -- if you actually watch this game you should have your head examined (note:  I've watched every Maryland game this year, so yea, consider the source)

 

 

GOOD LUCK!  PLAY ME OR FADE ME!

 

 

[RShack]

RShack:  Virginia (+6) vs. GT -- if you actually watch this game you should have your head examined (note:  I've watched every Maryland game this year, so yea, consider the source)

 

Given all the RB casualties, I wanna see how the freshmen are doing at learning how to block...  they can run fine, but so far they haven't blocked worth a damn... which is the main reason GT's O production has been way down...

 

It's a new skill for them, but PJ's O depends on RB's and WR's being in the right place and blocking ... they were supposed to learn it in practice during their 1st year, but fate didn't cooperate... so they're learning on the job... so far, they've been lousy at being in the right place and making it count...

[Mike in STL]

West. Kentucky (-24.5) @ Old Dominion
Nebraska (-7.5) @ Purdue
Auburn (+7) vs. Ole Miss
Rutgers @ Wisconsin UNDER 51.5
Ball State (-1.5) vs. UMass
Marshall (-17) @ Charlotte
Clemson (-10) @ NC State
Oklahoma @ Kansas OVER 61
Houston (-10.5) vs. Vandy
Kentucky (+9.5) vs. Tennessee
Idaho (-7) @ New Mexico State
Stanford @ Washington State OVER 61.5

47-24-1

[Pedro Cerrano]

1-0 to start the week.

[Mike in STL]

So I guess real bettors don't wager until right before kickoff? Had Auburn +7 at 10am. But at kickoff it was +8.5. I'm a winner at +8.5 but not +7.

Gotten screwed out of a few picks the last couple weeks where if I had the final line and not the 10am line I would have won.

[Mike in STL]

West. Kentucky (-24.5) @ Old Dominion
Nebraska (-7.5) @ Purdue
Auburn (+7) vs. Ole Miss
Rutgers @ Wisconsin UNDER 51.5
Ball State (-1.5) vs. UMass
Marshall (-17) @ Charlotte
Clemson (-10) @ NC State
Oklahoma @ Kansas OVER 61
Houston (-10.5) vs. Vandy
Kentucky (+9.5) vs. Tennessee
Idaho (-7) @ New Mexico State
Stanford @ Washington State OVER 61.5

47-24-1

6-6. C'mon man.

53-30-1

[Mike in STL]

Wanted to get started early this week

 

Baylor (-17) @ Kansas St. 

Baylor @ Kansas St. OVER 69.5

 

 

Question: What does it mean when the lines move? Looking at tomorrow, the Miss. St./Mizzou game had an O/U of 39. Now I see its at 42. Does that mean a lot of people were betting the OVER at 39, so they want to entice some money to go to the UNDER at 42? Is that right, so Vegas doesn't take a huge hit one way or the other?

 

Does that mean if you like the UNDER at 39 you should really like the UNDER at 42 and wager more? 

 

Or does it mean they think in hindsight they underestimated the amount of points to be scored and the OVER is better play since Vegas apparently wants more money to go to the UNDER?

[Pedro Cerrano]

Wanted to get started early this week

 

Baylor (-17) @ Kansas St. 

Baylor @ Kansas St. OVER 69.5

 

 

Question: What does it mean when the lines move? Looking at tomorrow, the Miss. St./Mizzou game had an O/U of 39. Now I see its at 42. Does that mean a lot of people were betting the OVER at 39, so they want to entice some money to go to the UNDER at 42? Is that right, so Vegas doesn't take a huge hit one way or the other?

 

Does that mean if you like the UNDER at 39 you should really like the UNDER at 42 and wager more? 

 

Or does it mean they think in hindsight they underestimated the amount of points to be scored and the OVER is better play since Vegas apparently wants more money to go to the UNDER?

 

You need to see what the betting trends are.  The line moving isn't always black and white.

 

If the public is, say, 80% or so on a team or number and the line moves accordingly then, yea, Vegas may be admitting that the line they originally set was bad.

 

However, I have seen lines move in the OPPOSITE direction and that's when you know Vegas really wants you to take a team.  For example, if the Ravens are -3 against the Chargers, and 70% of the money is on San Diego, and the line moves to Ravens -5, that means Vegas really really really thinks that Baltimore will cover and wants even more money put on the Chargers.  Generally, the lines are set to where Vegas thinks exactly 50% of the money will go so if they're moving the line to make the team getting 70% of the money even more enticing, that's a red flag.  It doesn't happen all that often, but when it has I've generally won.

[Mike in STL]

You need to see what the betting trends are.  The line moving isn't always black and white.
 
If the public is, say, 80% or so on a team or number and the line moves accordingly then, yea, Vegas may be admitting that the line they originally set was bad.
 
However, I have seen lines move in the OPPOSITE direction and that's when you know Vegas really wants you to take a team.  For example, if the Ravens are -3 against the Chargers, and 70% of the money is on San Diego, and the line moves to Ravens -5, that means Vegas really really really thinks that Baltimore will cover and wants even more money put on the Chargers.  Generally, the lines are set to where Vegas thinks exactly 50% of the money will go so if they're moving the line to make the team getting 70% of the money even more enticing, that's a red flag.  It doesn't happen all that often, but when it has I've generally won.

Thanks. So if that O/U went from 39,to 42, and say it makes it to 45, you would want the over because its likely so many are going to take the under, and Vegas wants all of them to lose. Essentially you are betting with the house, and the house wins most often. Like the "don't pass" on the craps table.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Thanks. So if that O/U went from 39,to 42, and say it makes it to 45, you would want the over because its likely so many are going to take the under, and Vegas wants all of them to lose. Essentially you are betting with the house, and the house wins most often. Like the "don't pass" on the craps table.

It doesn't necessarily mean that Vegas thinks it will go under. It just means they think close to 50% will take the under.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Record to Date 27-26.

 

LOVE the card this week!

 

Kansas State (+17) vs Baylor

Washington State vs. Arizona State OVER 64

Purdue vs. Illinois OVER 53

Tulsa (-17) vs. Central Florida

LSU (+6) at Alabama

 

NFL Bonus (which is really screwing me this year, I think next year I'll delete it):  Buffalo -3 vs Miami

 

RShack is on BYE

[Pedro Cerrano]

Btw, Randall, looks like you like Baylor.  Tomorrow night we go head to head.

 

Calling it now -- Baylor is on upset alert.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Btw, wanted to add that weather can also effect a total.  Since the lines come out usually a while before you can predict the weather, they may change the line if the weather looks crummy.  They are calling for scattered storms tomorrow in Columbia.  If that forecast was worse at the start of the week that may be the reason why the total was a few points lower.

[RShack]

RShack is on BYE

 

And right after another loss in which the new kids at RB and WR once again demonstrated that doing PJ-quality blocking is harder to learn than you might think...

 

It all happens so fast, and they need to be in exactly the right place at the right time... if they do that it's unstoppable... but if they don't it is... so, now they spend another 2 weeks in Blocking School...