122 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

How much confidence do you have that Duq can retool this team and put the right guys in place to contend next year?

[dude]

None.  Mostly because I don't think he's going to be here.

 

None if he was here.

 

None for someone else.

 

Updated.  I was wrong.

[1970]

None.  Mostly because I don't think he's going to be here.
 
None if he was here.
 
None for someone else.

Where's he going? There were two "realistic" possibilities a month ago, and one of those is gone (Boston). I'd be willing to bet that Shapiro is named as Beeston's replacement by this time next week (and as early as Tuesday).

Unless you think he gets fired, where else does he go?

[SportsGuy]

Agreed Ted.

He's the GM.

He's not going to step down. He was out of the game for 10 years and doesn't want that again I assume.

And he's not going to be fired.

[1970]

I also don't think it will be his "fault" if they fail to sign someone to a big contract this year - I'll blame Angelos until I'm given evidence to prove me wrong.

This may be an urban myth but I remember a time when Angelos supposedly refused to give anyone on the team a bigger contract than Cal. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if he has a similar (unwritten) policy regarding Jones. I hope like hell that isn't case.

[dude]

Where's he going? There were two "realistic" possibilities a month ago, and one of those is gone (Boston). I'd be willing to bet that Shapiro is named as Beeston's replacement by this time next week (and as early as Tuesday).

Unless you think he gets fired, where else does he go?

 

I guess we'll see on Toronto.  

 

I was wrong.

[NewMarketSean]

Angelos seems intent on having DD stay until the end of the contract. That's what he said when all the Toronto stuff was going down. So DD doesn't really have any way out -- he tried last year and failed. So DD is here until his contract is up which is what, 2018?

[Tranquil1]

Good article, Rob. My number 1 priority would be to resign Davis. The Oriole just can't let another power bat get away like Cruz (I would have paid him). I would be interested in Price if his cost isn't insane (I KNOW, I know, it will be). We desperately need another big time arm in the rotation. Extend Manny and Schoop if possible. Resign Parra too. Just my 2 cents.

[RichardZ]

Good article, Rob. My number 1 priority would be to resign Davis. The Oriole just can't let another power bat get away like Cruz (I would have paid him). I would be interested in Price if his cost isn't insane (I KNOW, I know, it will be). We desperately need another big time arm in the rotation. Extend Manny and Schoop if possible. Resign Parra too. Just my 2 cents.

 

 

I can't say that you're wrong because I've had some of the same thoughts.    Still, signing Price would require an AAV of 25M or more and a very long contract.    

 

Davis, IMO, will command an AAV of 20M as well.     And Parra is likely to get overpaid coming off of a career year.   While a 4/44M Markakis contract wouldn't be horrible, a 4/60 or 5/75 would most likely be a huge overpay.

 

I do think the Orioles need to do something but we are talking about a team that is about to finish under .500 and we are just bringing back the current team with an upgrade of Price over Chen.      It's not the worst thing but are we just buying a "competitive" team.   We would still be a team with holes at DH and LF and a big question mark at SS.    Our rotation would certainly get a boost but is Price enough to put a team over the hump?

 

Perhaps it's time to recognize reality, take a step back, and retool.    Some 1 for 2, 1 for 3, and, if possible, some 1 for 4 deals might be the way to go.    I don't think there is a way, even with 40-50M freed up (assuming a 120M payroll) to put together a really strong team on paper.    There is a way to put a team together with a chance which is what this team was when the season started.

[SportsGuy]

It certainly is going to be tough for this team to add to what we have for next year and keep the budget in the 120M area. It can be done and you can start questioning who should be dealt to get younger, cheaper talent in here.

Ubaldo and Hardy making 26ish million is tough on the payroll given the production they are giving us.

[McNulty]

Aw shit here we go http://t.co/c5arRbA1EJ

[Mackus]

We really need Gausman to get good fast.  Or to be shopped around to try and find that stud-level SP that we really need.

 

Lot of things that need to be accomplished to try and improve the team for next season, and very little payroll flexibility to do it.

 

Also have to decide how much you can or should trust guys like Tillman and Gonzalez, who have done well in recent years but both imploded this year.  I think it'll be tough to build a contender next year even if those guys give you the level of performance you would have expected this year (and got in previous years).  If they are terrible again, then we're likely doomed before we start.  I think we could add one, and maybe two, SP to the squad (likely at the expense of help elsewhere), but even if we do we'll need 2-3 good spots filled by Tillman, Gausman, Gonzo, and Jimenez.

 

I think we're going to need to find a lot of value from hidden sources in order to be good next year, because we don't have enough money or prospects to fill all of the holes with players you would expect to be solid.  Anyone know a GM with a decent track record for finding good production out of low-cost options?

[NewMarketSean]

I don't see how Gonzo can be considered for a starting job beyond this year.

[DuffMan]

Aw shit here we go http://t.co/c5arRbA1EJ

Interesting read, but it's coming from Rosenthal so I take it with a grain of salt.

[McNulty]

I don't see how Gonzo can be considered for a starting job beyond this year.

Tough to see it now, but he was pretty consistent for years. Maybe he's got an injury we don't know about.

[SammyBirdland]

How much confidence do you have that Duq can retool this team and put the right guys in place to contend next year?

 

Some teams build with a huge payroll.  Some teams build with a solid farm/player development system.  Some teams build with crafty trading.   

The Orioles build by signing guys that no other teams care about and crossing their fingers.   

I have zero confidence in Duquette any Peter-Angelos-controlled GM.  The reason for all recent Orioles success on the field can be summed up in two words:  Buck Showalter

On a side note, Buck is 59 years old. He ranks towards the top of the list in current managers by age.  I really hope he's one of those guys that wants to keep working until he can't do it anymore.   If he moves on, we're in for a world of hurt for the remainder of the Angelos era.

[NewMarketSean]

He can go to the bullpen and work on it.

 

He could always work his way back in, but planning ahead, I dont see how he can be locked in or even considered to have a spot next year.

[Mackus]

He can go to the bullpen and work on it.

 

He could always work his way back in, but planning ahead, I dont see how he can be locked in or even considered to have a spot next year.

 

I think you either pencil him in for the rotation or you non-tender him.  Even with only a modest raise due to his poor year, I wouldn't want to pay him if he's not gonna get a good crack at the rotation.

 

Agree that he's a guy to be really nervous about.  Guys who reach the majors late tend to leave it early, so he may have lost something even though he's not particularly old yet.  But we won't be able to get anywhere near what he could give us if he bounces back for the $4M or so he'll make.  But if he doesn't bounce back, then that's no good either.
 

I don't think we can build a team that looks like a contender without several key guys that could go either way.  Just don't have the resources to be content with most of the important spots on the team.

[NewMarketSean]

No tears shed in losing him. Loved him while he was here and pitching well for us, but like you said, he's another Rodrigo Lopez. Best to cut ties before he gets worse.

[Mackus]

Ok, but then you can't really complain when we go into the season with Kyle Wilson in the rotation.  Or resign Bud Norris for $2M.  Or need to do both of those things.

 

Cutting Gonzo doesn't gain you a lot of financial wiggle room.  So really the only reason to do it is if you are quite sure he won't bounce back.  If you think he'll struggle again with a 80 ERA+, then by all means dump him.  But if you think he can be even a back-end starter, then it's probably best to keep him.  We're not going to be able to find a reliable SP for the $4-5M in savings non-tendering him gets us. 

 

You could bet on a different gamble instead of Gonzo with that type of money, though.