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Fantasy Football 2015 / Start or Sit


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#1 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 09:34 PM

Its that time again. I've been dabbling a bit the last few days as we have set draft dates in the leagues I'm in. 

 

Reading up on draft strategies and two interesting ones stick out.

 

1. Zero RB strategy. Basically, you draft your QB, WRs, TEs in the first say six rounds. Doing so should give you elite talent there that usually measures up. But you wait on RBs with the notion that they are volatile, highest risk for injury, least likely to repeat elite performance in back to back years, and susceptible to having a hot handed teammate cut into their carries. 

 

After round six, you load up on RBs from there on out. In a 12 team league, assuming by round six, everyone else has taken their two RBs, there would still be 10 starting RBs on the board. You get probably two starters, hopefully with upside, and you load up on handcuffs, 3DBs, RB2s in a split carry system. You can stack your entire bench with those since your WRs and TE and QB are horses and you plug and play regardless of matchup. No need for more than one WR, TE, on your bench for bye weeks. Maybe as the season goes on, some of those RBs become hot commodities making your team tough to beat. 

 

2. Streaming QBs strategy. Basically, you don't draft a QB until after you stack the rest of your roster. Again, 12 team league, only 11 QBs would be taken probably in the first eight, nine rounds. You likely take three QBs total, one in the middle of the draft, like a Tannehill, Cutler, Flacco. Then take a couple higher potential fliers at the back end. Bridgewater, Bortles, Foles, etc...

 

This way, you aren't married to one guy who faces a tough matchup. How many people lost their playoff game when Peyton Manning threw 4 INTs in the rain in Cincy last year? I did. But you wouldn't dare bench him. There is a chance that Rodgers faces a snow storm late season in Lambeau. Brady the same in Foxboro. But you can't just bench those guys, in fear that they still have huge games. So you play matchups with three, four QBs at your disposal. 

 

I think I'd be more likely to try the Zero RB strategy over the streaming QB one. 


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#2 Icterus galbula

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 09:45 PM

There isn't as much of a difference between RB #1 and RB #8 this year, but I would personally be opposed to a zero-RB draft going in. There are still some bell cows in the league. I still go back to the VBD well that I originally discovered in a football guys magazine 12 years ago. If there is a RB on the board who looks right for the spot, I'll take him. With the volatility of the position I always draft up to the positional limit. Get a good bet when you can, but also punch those lotto tickets.



#3 Chris B

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 10:14 PM

Absolutely hate the no Rb strategy

#4 bnickle

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 10:36 PM

You have to be able to adapt. I just dont believe in a set strategy. The best consistent advice I can give is to pay attention to what the other owners do. Keep track of the positions they take, take advantage of them making a mistake. Thats how you get that little bit of an edge to win your league. So much of it ultimately comes down to health and luck.  

 

 

 

Are we comtinuing the free BSL league we did last year. Think it was a keeper league. Might be the only one I play.



#5 Mackus

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 08:10 AM

The key for me has always been to know your league.  For example, my work league is 14-teams and QBs go crazy early, like 3 in the first round, another 3 or so in the second, and the top 10-12 are all off the board by the end of the 4th round or so.  I never take a QB in that league, but load up on skill players, as long as I get a guy before others start taking a backup (and I grab a backup early so I have two passable options each week) II can get a QB in the 9th or 10th round that's nearly as good as the guys who go in the 4th or 5th.



#6 JeremyStrain

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 08:18 AM

You have to be able to adapt. I just dont believe in a set strategy. The best consistent advice I can give is to pay attention to what the other owners do. Keep track of the positions they take, take advantage of them making a mistake. Thats how you get that little bit of an edge to win your league. So much of it ultimately comes down to health and luck.  

 

 

 

Are we comtinuing the free BSL league we did last year. Think it was a keeper league. Might be the only one I play.

 

I can do that if you guys want to.

 

I'm going to go in on the new Ottoneu Football league where you can draft college players like minor leaguers I think, but I can probably spare a little attention for this one.


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#7 NewMarketSean

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 08:21 AM

I would apply that Zero RB rule to WR's. There's so many more elite/solid WR's than there are RB's.

 

There's maybe 5 truly elite RB's, maybe 4 with Foster out.

 

I know WR's are hit or miss a lot, especially #2 and slot guys but if they get lots of targets -- guys like Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Edelman, etc... you can still rack up yardage and points w/o getting touchdowns from them.

 

Then go for the under the radar home runs....like Martavius Bryant.

 

In an auction league I am keeping 3 RB's entering the draft: Murray, McCoy and Miller....$99 total out of a $180 draft cap. That doesn't leave much room to fill out the other spots on my roster, so I will probably target a Roethlisberger or Tannehill...guys who can be had for $20-$30.

 

I'll fill up on the kinds of WR's I mentioned and some undervalued TE's.

 

Kicker, DST and bench players for a $1 each and try to pick up some studs off the waiver wire throughout the season.


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#8 NewMarketSean

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 08:42 AM

Now I am second guessing myself.

 

I have Martavis Bryant who I can keep for $6...and he would definitely go higher than that in an open draft.

 

I am thinking of not keeping Murray because I think he's not going to come close to his output from last year -- too many other options in that backfield.

 

I like McCoy even at $48 because everything on offense will go through him, but I'm still nervous about keeping him. I do know he'd probably go for $60+ in an open draft.

 

So I am thinking of keeping McCoy, Miller and Bryant and targeting Roethlisberger in draft, since he always seems to be undervalued in our league.

 

Or I could try to trade Murray to get him, keep him for $10, and then try to draft Bryant who would probably go in the $20's.

 

Lots of options.


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#9 Mackus

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 08:56 AM

My keeper options (with values) for next year in a 12-team, $200 auction league.  We get 4 keepers.  Listed in the order in which I'm currently thinking of keeping them.

 

Odell Beckham Jr $10

Antonio Brown $22

Dez Bryant $30

Matt Forte $43

LeSean McCoy $58

Jimmy Graham $30

Joseph Randle $10

 

We play 2 RB, 2 WR, and a Flex so I could keep all 3 WR.

 

I also could trade guys for more auction budget, which I'll try to do with anyone I don't keep, or maybe try to go 2- or even 3-for-1 and get an upgrade.  LeVeon Bell ($20), CJ Anderson ($10), and Mark Ingram ($20) may be attainable on teams that need more keeper depth.



#10 Mackus

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 09:01 AM

Now I am second guessing myself.

 

I have Martavis Bryant who I can keep for $6...and he would definitely go higher than that in an open draft.

 

I am thinking of not keeping Murray because I think he's not going to come close to his output from last year -- too many other options in that backfield.

 

I like McCoy even at $48 because everything on offense will go through him, but I'm still nervous about keeping him. I do know he'd probably go for $60+ in an open draft.

 

So I am thinking of keeping McCoy, Miller and Bryant and targeting Roethlisberger in draft, since he always seems to be undervalued in our league.

 

Or I could try to trade Murray to get him, keep him for $10, and then try to draft Bryant who would probably go in the $20's.

 

Lots of options.

 

I'd keep the RBs over Bryant or Ben, even at the higher cost.  I'd explore your trade options, though.  If anyone will give you good value for McCoy or Murray, I'd consider jumping on that.  Murray is an injury risk (last year was the first time he stayed healthy), won't be behind that great line, and has lots of company in the Eagles backfield so may lose some touches.  McCoy is a stud and should get tons of carries, but that's a pretty high price to keep him and maybe teams will be able to put 8 in the box against Buffalo and limit his production.

 

Do you only get 3 keepers?  I wouldn't even consider keeping Ben or Bryant if that's the case.  You want to keep either studs or safe, reliable value guys, not 2nd-tier QBs or sleepers, IMO.



#11 NewMarketSean

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 09:07 AM

My keeper options (with values) for next year in a 12-team, $200 auction league.  We get 4 keepers.  Listed in the order in which I'm currently thinking of keeping them.

 

Odell Beckham Jr $10

Antonio Brown $22

Dez Bryant $30

Matt Forte $43

LeSean McCoy $58

Jimmy Graham $30

Joseph Randle $10

 

We play 2 RB, 2 WR, and a Flex so I could keep all 3 WR.

 

I also could trade guys for more auction budget, which I'll try to do with anyone I don't keep, or maybe try to go 2- or even 3-for-1 and get an upgrade.  LeVeon Bell ($20), CJ Anderson ($10), and Mark Ingram ($20) may be attainable on teams that need more keeper depth.

 

I'd keep your 3 WR and Randle.

 

Like you said, McCoy is expensive and teams will stack the box, Forte is going to become more one-dimensional and is already expensive, and Graham going to a new offense, you don't know how he'll perform.

 

Randle is good value at $10 behind that line.


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#12 Mackus

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 09:08 AM

Are we comtinuing the free BSL league we did last year. Think it was a keeper league. Might be the only one I play.

 

You guys really want me to beat your asses for the 4th straight year?


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#13 Markus

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 10:11 AM

Are we comtinuing the free BSL league we did last year. Think it was a keeper league. Might be the only one I play.

 

I'm also game for coming back.  This is the Upper Deckers year.  I can feel it.


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#14 bnickle

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 10:48 AM


You guys really want me to beat your asses for the 4th straight year?

You beat me in the Finals?

#15 Mackus

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 10:52 AM

http://archive.fanta...nfl/2014/272561



#16 bnickle

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 07:25 PM

So just to let it be known, Im totally good with keeping that whole team from last year. 



#17 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 08:26 PM

The key for me has always been to know your league.  For example, my work league is 14-teams and QBs go crazy early, like 3 in the first round, another 3 or so in the second, and the top 10-12 are all off the board by the end of the 4th round or so.  I never take a QB in that league, but load up on skill players, as long as I get a guy before others start taking a backup (and I grab a backup early so I have two passable options each week) II can get a QB in the 9th or 10th round that's nearly as good as the guys who go in the 4th or 5th.

This is why although I still do them, mock drafts are a waste of time. Because the QBs always go early in every league I've done, whereas the mock drafts suggest waiting on them. I could do one of those draft strategies, but there is always value to be had when other people reach. 


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#18 JeremyStrain

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 09:30 PM

BSL League back up and running. Make sure to select your 3 Keepers by the 23rd and let's pick a draft date.


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#19 SportsGuy

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 09:54 PM

It used to be if you would pick in the 6-10 area, you were almost always taking a RB...that time is over. No need to reach just because a RB is the traditional pick there.

#20 DJ MC

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 10:04 PM

I'm out on the keeper league. If someone wants my spot, feel free.


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