482 replies to this topic

[Matt_P]

Nick would've accepted the offer. 100%. He prefers to be here. Hed be willing to risk the extra 15 mil and extra years and gamble on himself on a one year deal. I also tend to think the O's were putting a 3/27ish offer on the table.

 

Connolly claims that everything thinks the Os and Kakes were talking four years and between $40 to $50 million. That's what he wrote in his article. Roch has stated the same. They could all be wrong but it's unlikely.

[bnickle]

Yeah, Im just not buying it. If a 4/ 40 or better deal was on the table Nick would have already signed. I can buy that they may have gone to 10 mil per season but not the 4th year.

[bnickle]

The only way the Os look really bad here is if they and we have really misjudged his value on the market. If he get 12+ mil a season then it becomes more of a mistake. Though again, if DD put his foot down at a certain number on Nick, I will  have understood and wont fault him too much as long as he has a solid alternate plan for RF.

[dude]

Even if there is no comparison between Cuddyer and Kakes (highly unlikely), Connolly reported that the Os and Kakes were talking about a four year deal paying between $10 and $12 million per year. If the Os were willing to offer anything more than 4 and 35 and the two sides still couldn't come to a deal then they needed to put the tag on Kakes.

 

I think Kakes should get more than 3 and 30 without the tag. I'd rather have Kakes than Cuddyer. Cuddyer is too fragile for my taste. But the Mets aren't well run. Who knows what they're thinking?

 

Cuddyer received 2 and 21. Seems like he really wanted to get out of Colorado and that he would have accepted the QO if he couldn't find another deal. I don't think it's a bad deal for him. I don't think he'll get six million next year.

 

.....but Markakis wants to be in Baltimore and Cuddyer wanted to go play with his best friend in NY.

 

If the Orioles were offering 4/35....that means outside of the QO....he's only getting 3/20.  His agent is going to force the Orioles to create an op[en market scenario.  If they offer the QO...he accepts it and negotiates a multi-year deal with year1 being 5-7M more than was initially discussed.

 

It will be interesting to see where NIck's market goes.  His best landing spot was the Mets.  

[BobPhelan]

Frankly I'd be fine with Nick signing somewhere else. I'd be ok with him coming back but not at the price being bandied about. A .725 OPS outfielder losing his range isn't necessarily something we need to be locked into.

[SportsGuy]

Not offering the QO was always dumb.

It's even dumber if he turned down a 4/40+ deal, which you knew before the QO had to be offered.

[Mackus]

Not offering the QO was always dumb.

It's even dumber if he turned down a 4/40+ deal, which you knew before the QO had to be offered.

 

I agree with the second part.  If we offered 3/$24M and he turned that down, that doesn't tell us as much.  If we offered 4/$40M he's asking for 4/$60M or something, then you know he's not gonna accept the option, though.

 

All along I was against the qualifying offer because I thought it was likely he'd accept it and if we didn't offer one we could get him back for less than 3/$30M, which would be preferable to a 1/$15M deal.  If we were offering much more, or he was adamant that he would only accept much more, say something in the 4/$40M+ range, then I agree we should have made the offer since he wouldn't have accepted it.

 

I still don't think we have enough info to know for sure that we should have made the offer, but I'll admit that the rumored information we have seems more supportive of those that thought we should make the offer than not at this point.

[SportsGuy]

He was never going to accept a QO. He was always going to get(or at least felt that he was going to get) an offer good enough to turn that down.

[bnickle]

Again, I was in favor of making the offer but if DD doesn't want to pay Nick 15 mil for '15 I can't go overboard with the criticism. Again, I'm assuming DD knew or was very certain Nick would have accepted.

[SportsGuy]

Again, I was in favor of making the offer but if DD doesn't want to pay Nick 15 mil for '15 I can't go overboard with the criticism. Again, I'm assuming DD knew or was very certain Nick would have accepted.

If DD felt that, after offering him the rumored deal, then he is stupid.

If he didn't offer the rumored deal but still put a 3/30 type deal on the table and Nick turned it down, then he should have known to offer it.

And since he is likely willing to pay Nick 10-12M for next year anyway, you are only gambling a few extra million, which shouldn't effect the payroll at all.

So...I see zero reason not to offer it unless the Orioles only wanted him for 2/18-3/24 and I say there is less than a 2% chance that is the case.

Just no way they will value him that low.

[SportsGuy]

Btw...Cuddyer turned down a QO and only got 6M more guaranteed with the extra year.

[bnickle]

Again, I won't criticize if DD put his foot down at say 10 mil a season and said I won't pay more. 5 mil isn't chump change.

I mean I'm playing devils advocate to an extent because I would have gave the QO I'm just not necessarily going to bash DD for it.

[bnickle]

Also, assuming he has a viable back up plan.

[bnickle]

Let me ask this, how much do you think Markakis's value has jumped by not having a QO attached??


Let me also ask this, if you knew going in that Nick was 100% to accept the QO do you still offer it??

[SportsGuy]

Again, I won't criticize if DD put his foot down at say 10 mil a season and said I won't pay more. 5 mil isn't chump change.
I mean I'm playing devils advocate to an extent because I would have gave the QO I'm just not necessarily going to bash DD for it.

We have a garbage farm system and a GM who wants to build through the farm.

It's a 5ishM gamble to have an important player back for a WS contending team.

And it's not even a gamble of the rumored offer is even close to being true.

If they lose Nick, not offering the QO will be a huge mistake.

[SportsGuy]

Let me ask this, how much do you think Markakis's value has jumped by not having a QO attached??
Let me also ask this, if you knew going in that Nick was 100% to accept the QO do you still offer it??

1). His value probably jumped some...but not a ton.

2) sure....because I would prefer to have him for 1/15 than 4/40. But there is no scenario where he would be 100% on that.

[bnickle]

Then they should have just picked up the option if you were willing to make the QO knowing he would accept.

You're right that you could never be 100% certain but I'm betting Nicks side told them they would accept knowing that if they didn't it would raise his value on the open market. On the other hand, he loses the value with the QO and I truely believe he was highly likely to accept the QO. Nicks side held the cards here. Either he was going to get his 17 mil( 2 mil buyout) for a year which he was fine with , or he was going to increase his value on the open market.

I just have no problem with DD drawing a line in the sand on his '15 salary. Especially, if his budget isn't as high or he's more up against it than we think.

[SportsGuy]

It's not much by they would have saved a few hundred K by offering a QO and turning down the option, so you would do that and save that extra money.

[fishteacher]

You are all really making good points on both sides.  My only question is then, "Who the hell do we add who is as good if not better than Nick?"  Can we get someone much cheaper who can then help us keep Nelson around, sign Wieters, etc?  I just don't see a "replacement" in RF that would be for us what Nick brings to the table.  Sure, "declining" defense (somehow someway he won another Gold Glove), bats against lefties as a lefty as good or better than 75% of the league if not better, and brings  quiet leadership to this team that I think is irreplaceable.  

 

I'm not crazy about 4/40 mil as an offer, but I'd rather go 3/33, and give him a 4th year mutual option or a buy out or something to entice him.  

[mweb08]

I would not love having Nick back for 1/15.3. Nick just isn't the caliber of player I'd want to pay that kind of money to, even if it is for 1 year. And then you're possibly in a similar situation next year. If Nick can't be kept for like 3/30 or less, I'm fine with moving on.<br />