FanGraphs: Revisiting the Trevor Rogers Trade. Oof.

They’d have no difficulty finding a #4-5 starter for ‘25 during the offseason. Unless Rogers somehow finds himself at Norfolk quickly enough to come back and contribute this season, this trade is a fail and I’m still dumbfounded by it.

I dont think the Os expected to get much more out of Rogers this year. The offseason is where they can dig in and hopefully do most of their work to change his repertoire. What we have to remember is his June and July we decent. The Marlins were reportedly getting interest from other teams on him. This wasn't solely a reclamation project. His value wasnt as low as I think some people think. Nonetheless, they could have chose to go with more immediate upside. I would argue they should have gone with more immediate upside.

Eh. For an organization that prides itself on analytics, I think the info was there to indicate the results just prior to the trade belied his actual performance.

I think we should be very comfortable suggesting that Mike Elias doesn't like and isn't that good at the external role of GM.

That's not some catastrophic thing, unless you don't figure out how to align/man your staff to cover that in the future.

Also, this piece just focuses on trying to breakout the analysis of Rogers numbers which is such a shallow approach to analyzing the actual trade.  There's 3 elements to the issues of this trade and covering one of them partially doesn't do it.  The the assessment of him being the answer (ie performance) as well as Timing and Cost.

Rogers is available whenever you want him.  He's not free (like a waiver claim) but he's not some guy you have to pay for.  If you think you can back to the better-Rogers, great, but we needed pitching 8 weeks before the trade deadline.  

Why would we wait until the (literally) last second to over-pay for a guy that doesn't move the needle (short term).

I'm not even negative on Rogers like nearly everyone else. I'd guess part of his issues are physical and the Orioles seem to have a good program in terms of generating the athleticism they want for their approach.  Find the platform to execute a better plan off of, great.  We actually see the Orioles do this a fair amount most of their waiver-level external adds.

BTW you can give this trade whatever grade you want for now and I wont argue but it clearly has a chance to improve. It could improve a good bit should Rogers turn things back around in the future. I actually think the Soto trade was the worst trade. Still a bit of time for things to change but its apparent Hyde doesnt want to use him at all right now. His option is not going to be picked up. We gave up Seth Johnson and Chace for him to throw a few low lev innings. Two real potential arms. I would probably take that return over Stowers and Norby. Stowers is a clear AAA guy and I just dont have much belief in Norby at all. 

I can tell you that the Marlins trade likely isnt going to turn out that bad. Stowers, Im sorry, you can write him off already. Norby has some chance but he doesnt have a good glove. He's really gonna have to rely on the bat. I'll take 2 more years of Rogers happily for Norby. 

THe Soto trade really concerns me. Johnson and Chace could both be high lev BP arms for years to come. 

Could've gotten more for Norby even if that's true, IMO. Agree the Soto trade is worse.

I really am not sure Norby brings more. Maybe he couldve lead a package for better immediate help but I mean right now Michael Lorenzen has  the best resutls of the  SP traded.  No one would've liked that trade at time time.  

Anyway, the point was more about how much I dislike the Soto trade now and likely going forward. I still see real hope for the Rogers trade and Im not as concerned about what Norby and Stowers do vs what Johnson and Chace could become.

I really am not sure Norby brings more. Maybe he couldve lead a package for better immediate help but I mean right now Michael Lorenzen has been maybe the best SP traded. As far as results anyway. No one would've liked that trade at time time.  

 

 

Anyway, the point was more about how much I dislike the Soto trade now and likely going forward. I still see real hope for the Rogers trade and Im not as concerned about what Norby and Stowers do vs what Johnson and Chace could become.

He brought nothing, so it's not much of a stretch to suggest he could've brought something. 

And frankly, it isn't our jobs to get it right with the limited information we have. It's the FO's. They failed big time here. That really can't be debated. So the "no one would've liked that trade at the time" argument doesn't really matter IMHO. It's on Elias to get it right. Who cares what we think - clearly he doesn't, he never has - and he's a genius for the most part. If Rogers had worked out, I'd certainly swallow my pride and tip the cap to the man as I have so many times in the past, as he has deserved.