Santander is a FA. 
Do you want to extend him?

Do you want Kjerstad to replace him?

If you trade Kjerstad, and Santander walks... what's the optimal solution there?

Would the O's be good with Mountcastle, and O'Hearn sticking around 2-3 more years?
Or would they like to replace at-least one of them with Kjerstad and Mayo at some point next year?

 

The O's want to limit Adley's time behind the plate. 
That means more time at DH, where he hits better. 
It also means more time for a backup C.
Would be nice if the backup C could hit better.
Obviously Basallo could represent that soon. 

Do the O's believe they'll be able to extend Adley?

Do they want Basallo to be around as a possible replacement if they don't?

If they do think they'll be able to extend Adley... are they better off trading Basallo now to bring back a SP with upside and control vs. having him around as a backup C (who catches more than a normal backup C), and another guy that gets 1st / DH ab's?

 

Is Holliday truly untouchable?
If so, you have to expect he takes over 2nd base soon (no later than OD '25). 
When that occurs, than Westburg moves to 3rd. 
Westburg at 3rd means Mayo's O's future is likely 1st, DH, RF. 

Yes, you can throw in variables such as injuries, or possibly Holliday being converted to CF, or another trade somewhere that creates changes... but Holliday at 2nd, Westburg at 3rd in '25 I think is the most likely scenario.

 

 

 

You want an extended window.
A chance to have annual aspirations. 
To get to the playoffs multiple times and see what happens in those SSS vs. a one off scenario.
That said, you never know if you'll have a better chance.
You (the organization) haven't won a WS since '83.

My feeling is you want the best of both worlds.
You want to give yourself as much flexibility as possible going forward, and you want to increase your odds here in the immediate. 
The playoffs really are largely luck of the draw... but you don't want to get the playoffs and feel like you have a glaring hole either. 

 

Losing Bradish was huge.
It's not just about his starts, but the impact to games afterwards (additional pen usage, etc).
The O's know their pen needs at-least 1 high leverage capable addition.
The O's know they need a front-end starter with upside. 
The O's also know that with Bradish out for likely all of next year, and Burnes being a FA.... they need to get a SP with front-end upside that has control... someone they know they can pair with Rodriguez as the front-end of the rotation to begin '25.  And then hopefully they're able to extend Burnes. If not, they'll be shopping (FA or trade) for another starter. 

 

 

I don't really see trading Holliday or Mayo as something Elias would realistically do.
I think he woudln't (I know I'm not) be excited about trading Basallo, and Kjerstad...  but I think it's possible.
You should be able to get a lot back if you are willing to trade Basallo, Kjerstad, Norby, Beavers, McDermott. 

 

At the absolute minimum imo, Elias needs to come out of the deadline with 1-2 quality relievers, and a 3rd or 4th starter. It's possible that could be accomplished without giving up your best pieces. 

 

Best case imo though is a high impact reliever, and a starter you could squint at and believe is a #2 starter on a quality team. In that scenario, I think you have to be comfortable with losing a couple of your better pieces. 

 

To me... if you decide you are willing to trade Basallo, Kjerstad, Norby, Beavers, McDermott; I don't think you have to be limited to only the guys we have heard to be purportedly available.  I think Elias has the ammunition to find what he needs, and get a deal done somewhere.  

 

 

I'd consider trading Mountcastle, Kjerstad or Cowser at this deadline depending on the deal available. Probably would need to be a 3-team deal for Mountcastle as most teams dealing pitching wouldn't want a solid 1B with two years of control left. Mountcastle to Toronto in a deal for Bassitt or Kikuchi could be interesting if they deal Vlad, though I think Monty probably more valuable than either so again might want to find a third dance partner.

Also should find a taker for Urias or Mateo to sweeten a deal. Not much value for either but above zero and think Elias should be able to find something that's better than releasing them when Mayo and/or Holliday get promoted.

OP’s post -

 

It’d be a mistake to extend Santander. RF should be Mayo’s moving forward (and IMO Westburg at 3rd means Mayo isn’t good enough to play the position at the big league level). 

 

I like Mounty, but he’s not the prototypical middle of the order 1B bat. 

 

As for the absolute minimum for what Elias must do? I agree they need at least two BP additions (one being a high octane setup man), but I would think the SP addition absolutely needs to push Kremer to the 4th spot. 

 

For Mackus -

 

The return for Cowser would have to be significant, because Hays’ and Mullins’ range aint gonna get better next year. 

As a Santander fan, my heart wants to see him play in Baltimore next year, and beyond. But I see the multiple reasons for letting him walk.

 

Mountcastle reminds me of Chris Davis, when he's on, he's on fire. But he has those painful cold spells. Then again, I suppose most players do. But I only follow the O's, so his really stand out to me. On the plus side, his glove is rock solid.

 

Adley is the heart of the team. Need I say more?

 

If the O's feel like they're set for IFers, then Holliday isn't untouchable. But any interested parties should be prepared to feel the sting of acquiring him.

 

Burnes will be fielding multiple, great offers. The O's have the advantage of Corbin experiencing a season of Baltimore baseball. If he is happy here, that's a big plus. He isn't accepting below market value because of it. But a legit contract offer with culture familiarity seems like a good start. He once said California is too hot, and that he prefers cooler weather. I'm not sure how much that will play into his decision making.   

 

 

For Mackus -

 

The return for Cowser would have to be significant, because Hays’ and Mullins’ range aint gonna get better next year. 

 

Yes, it would.  I value Cowser comparably to Kjerstad and both of them only slightly behind Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo.  So would need to be the primary piece in a big trade to deal him.  Skubal and the fictitious version of Crochet that could pitch through October are the only rumored to be available pieces I'd include any of those top prospects or Cowser.  Westburg has moved ahead of all of that group with his big first half, which is why we don't even see him rumored as a candidate.

For Mackus -

 

The return for Cowser would have to be significant, because Hays’ and Mullins’ range aint gonna get better next year. 

 

I think regardless of keeping or trading Cowser, the front office should bring in a capable right-handed CF either at the deadline or by next year. 

Interesting ....seems a little scattered/rushed and stream of consciousness, but, there's some elements here I was sharing in the other thread.

 

Just go to the endstate you want and work back from there.  It's not a series of individual moves (well, it is sort of because that's how you do it) but know where you want to be and how you want to get there....we'll do the Baseline 2025 thread later but you're likely going in position (into the offseason) for 2025 is....

 

SS Henderson

C  Rutschman (ARB1)

RF Kjerstad

1B Mayo

DH OHearn (7.5M option to Basallo)

3B Westburg

LF Cowser

CF

2B

 

QO to Santander (2025 draft pick)

QO to Burnes (2025 draft pick)

btw, nobody is running away with the RoY in the AL so get Cowser into everyday ABs and see if he can push to win and get another PPP.

 

CF could be Mullins/Hays(LF) with Cowser (LF/CF) for a year to Fabian/Bradfield or in the other thread and weber above a new RHed CF option

 

2B is certainly Holliday.  People have pushed lot of ideas.  Holliday to CF, Westburg to 2B and Mayo to 3B and either trade or keep Mounty or whatever, but they bottom line is that if you do something relevant in CF, you have a really strong top 7 or top 8 and 2B is certainly important, but lots of things you can do including sticking with Holiday and see what happens  

 

All of this goes to the deadline decisions (the other thread) and it's relationship to entering 2025.

Interesting ....seems a little scattered/rushed and stream of consciousness, but, there's some elements here I was sharing in the other thread.

Just go to the endstate you want and work back from there. It's not a series of individual moves (well, it is sort of because that's how you do it) but know where you want to be and how you want to get there....we'll do the Baseline 2025 thread later but you're likely going in position (into the offseason) for 2025 is....

SS Henderson
C Rutschman (ARB1)
RF Kjerstad
1B Mayo
DH OHearn (7.5M option to Basallo)
3B Westburg
LF Cowser
CF
2B

QO to Santander (2025 draft pick)
QO to Burnes (2025 draft pick)
btw, nobody is running away with the RoY in the AL so get Cowser into everyday ABs and see if he can push to win and get another PPP.

CF could be Mullins/Hays(LF) with Cowser (LF/CF) for a year to Fabian/Bradfield or in the other thread and weber above a new RHed CF option

2B is certainly Holliday. People have pushed lot of ideas. Holliday to CF, Westburg to 2B and Mayo to 3B and either trade or keep Mounty or whatever, but they bottom line is that if you do something relevant in CF, you have a really strong top 7 or top 8 and 2B is certainly important, but lots of things you can do including sticking with Holiday and see what happens

All of this goes to the deadline decisions (the other thread) and it's relationship to entering 2025.

Get Cowser everyday AB no matter what. Gotta get that pick above everything else. LOL

Get Cowser everyday AB no matter what. Gotta get that pick above everything else. LOL

 

Yeah, that's not what I said.  I don't think we're helping any of these guys without regular PAs.  All of them need to be regular players.  Stowers can't even get in the rotation and now he's out of options for 2025.

 

Not asking Cowser to hit leadoff, but he's hitting in the bottom third and you can give him plenty of run.  It's not about doing it at all costs (your hyperbole), but he's a young player that should at least get the extended look, not just this year, but a couple of years.  Give him a day against a tough lefty, but he's top 4 or 5 still for RoY and if he gets going there's extra potential value there beyond just his performance.

 

So odd that you'd push back on trying to add draft picks.  Why not try and get everything done you can?  What's the value in managing it to get less opportunity?

Yeah, that's not what I said. I don't think we're helping any of these guys without regular PAs. All of them need to be regular players. Stowers can't even get in the rotation and now he's out of options for 2025.

Not asking Cowser to hit leadoff, but he's hitting in the bottom third and you can give him plenty of run. It's not about doing it at all costs (your hyperbole), but he's a young player that should at least get the extended look, not just this year, but a couple of years. Give him a day against a tough lefty, but he's top 4 or 5 still for RoY and if he gets going there's extra potential value there beyond just his performance.

So odd that you'd push back on trying to add draft picks. Why not try and get everything done you can? What's the value in managing it to get less opportunity?

It’s not what you said?

“ btw, nobody is running away with the RoY in the AL so get Cowser into everyday ABs and see if he can push to win and get another PPP.”

Yes, your statement certainly implies that the focus is getting that pick. You didn’t say “Get Cowser everyday AB because I think he gives us the best chance to win”. You said that we should play him everyday because he MIGHT get us another PPP.

You can’t make this stuff up. And I didn’t. LOL

No one is pushing back on getting draft picks. I’m pushing back on that being your main focus, which it CLEARLY is.

P.S. Kyle Stowers has a lifetime .635 OPS and is hitting .235 in AAA. Kyle Stowers is not the only fringe ML player this happens to. Maybe he turns into Brent Rooker 2 years from now. Or maybe he’s just like most of the other AAAA players who bounce around from team to team and never establish themselves.

Yes, your statement certainly implies that the focus is getting that pick. You didn’t say “Get Cowser everyday AB because I think he gives us the best chance to win”. You said that we should play him everyday because he MIGHT get us another PPP.

You can’t make this stuff up. And I didn’t. LOL

 

The Orioles have 4 guys (Cowser, Kjerstad, Hays, Mullins) essentially splitting time between 2 positions.  Santander is playing basically every day in RF (and he should).

 

Is it your position that you don't want any of them getting everyday PAs?  Kjerstad has had the least time, everyone wants to see him more but he's also more of a RF.

 

Do you think fewer ABs each is going to lead to any rhythm or better performance for any of them?  You mock Mullins and Hays as part of the future but now you want to limit Cowser too?  Who should play?  I'm not a big Cowser guy (he's certainly better this year) but he's the only guy that could have some additional value (outcome).  It's not THE reason you do it, but ignoring the opportunity seems dumb.  We need to figure out an everyday lineup and let these guys run a little bit.

The Orioles have 4 guys (Cowser, Kjerstad, Hays, Mullins) essentially splitting time between 2 positions.  Santander is playing basically every day in RF (and he should).
 
Is it your position that you don't want any of them getting everyday PAs?  Kjerstad has had the least time, everyone wants to see him more but he's also more of a RF.
 
Do you think fewer ABs each is going to lead to any rhythm or better performance for any of them?  You mock Mullins and Hays as part of the future but now you want to limit Cowser too?  Who should play?  I'm not a big Cowser guy (he's certainly better this year) but he's the only guy that could have some additional value (outcome).  It's not THE reason you do it, but ignoring the opportunity seems dumb.  We need to figure out an everyday lineup and let these guys run a little bit.

It’s not the reason you do it. In fact, at this point, it’s got nothing to do with it. If it happens, great. Hays and Mullins are absolutely not the future of this team. I mock your idea of considering extensions for Mullins, Hays, Mountcastle, etc. You wanted to extend Hays and whoever before the season started. They’d already be an albatross. Dumb, Dumber, Dumbest.

The thing is, they’re all here now, and Hyde is juggling best he can. Cowser has had plenty of chances to find a rhythm. He played himself into more playing time and he played himself out of playing time. If he starts hitting again he’ll get more time. It’s not like he’s buried.

As far as getting everyday AB, I want Cowser and Kjerstad to force Hyde to give them more AB like Cowser did in April. Cowser is in danger of losing AB to Kjerstad. Survival of the fittest for the rest of this year.

It’s not the reason you do it. In fact, at this point, it’s got nothing to do with it. If it happens, great. 

 

What you're doing isn't uncommon.  You are taking something fairly minor, adding hyperbole and blowing it out of proportion because [insert your reason here].  

 

Read the post in the context of the thread.  We can get draft picks from Burnes and Santander (QOs) and since nobody is running away with the RoY race (fact) if you make roster choices (some of that with Mullins/Hays is in the other thread) that leads to Cowser getting more opportunity, maybe he could pull another pick.

 

Win the WS (so you draft last and probably actually move up a couple picks with other penalty)

Build a roster that doesn't require paying for a QO FA.

Add 3 (or 4) draft picks to the next draft (CompB, QO, QO, PPP)

The Cowser suggestion seems a bit of tail wagging the dog. You don't run him out there just because he's RoY eligible. I would still play him consistently for now, but he's getting close to getting leapfrogged by Kjerstad and Hays and Mullins for some of his time. You play the guys producing and who you expect to produce. Maybe that's Cowser, and maybe he'll get hot enough to be a RoY, but that's long odds. The possibility shouldn't be a reason to play him over a superior alternative.

Also no thanks on a draft pick for Burnes.

They've given Cowser a pretty long leash based on his April.  But he's been a lost puppy for a long time and there's nothing that's shouting he's going to rebound in the 2nd half.  He still hasn't figured out how to hit major league level breaking stuff and is an abysmal 2-strike hitter. Pretty much an automatic out.  Hyde obviously likes him and like everyone else in the front office, was apparently seduced by his first month.  At this point, I don't know what his trade value would be but it's hard for me to believe there's teams blowing up Elias' phone asking about him.  If you're not a fan of Cowser, it looks like you're going to have to just accept the status quo and hope he brings back that April magic. If they don't send him down, he's here to stay for 2024. 

Switch hitters with 30 HR power don't grow on trees. Also, you simply can't assume prospect success will automatically translate to MLB success (see Cowser's roller coaster ride thus far).

A 3-4 year extension for Santander wouldn't break the bank and you'd solidfy the middle of the lineup for this championship window.

Read the post in the context of the thread.  We can get draft picks from Burnes and Santander (QOs) and since nobody is running away with the RoY race (fact) if you make roster choices (some of that with Mullins/Hays is in the other thread) that leads to Cowser getting more opportunity, maybe he could pull another pick.

 

Win the WS (so you draft last and probably actually move up a couple picks with other penalty)

Build a roster that doesn't require paying for a QO FA.

Add 3 (or 4) draft picks to the next draft (CompB, QO, QO, PPP)

 

...and a couple of weeks later, Hays is traded, Kjerstad is down and Cowser has warmed up a little and is basically in a 4 way tie with 2 RedSox and Gil.

 

Didn't really expect him hitting leadoff, but hey, take off.

^ forgot to add 14 game hitting streak. 

 

FTR Kjerstad shouldn’t ever be in the way of Cowser’s playing time. He’s a RF. Cowser can play RF, but he’s better utilized in CF and LF. 

FTR Kjerstad shouldn’t ever be in the way of Cowser’s playing time. He’s a RF. Cowser can play RF, but he’s better utilized in CF and LF. 

 

I agree, but when you manage the roster like "everyone into the pool" then you leave inconsistent playing time..  Everyone wants to be out there every day.

 

Cowser and Mullins should get every day run now and Slater is happy to be on the ML roster.