CBS Sports: Orioles' Jackson Holliday on trade block? Three reasons why it's highly unlikely, and one reason for rumors

https://www.cbssport...son-for-rumors/

I have already stated that I'd be open to trading him. It would take a haul for sure but I'd still look at it. We are already stacked offensively and could have a full infield (IF Mayo can play 3B which apparently the FO is not very sure on) without Holliday. We could use some pitching help but as the article points out its not too likely that a SP of the caliber we need for Holliday is even available.

I think since Mayo hasn't been called up its starting to tell me they don't like him at 3B as there is certainly room and need for a good RH bat. So I suspect Holliday will be in Baltimore next season.

I'm not going to lie- his short stink was really demoralizing from a fan's standpoint.  It was shocking because of how he tore up the minor leagues.  I really expected his major league introduction to be seamless.  When he was sent back down, I actually thought it would make sense to use him as trade leverage to get a frontline starter. But the thing that eats at me is his amazing OBP and ability to draw walks like Soto does.  That's going to be hard to give away because of how rare it is in today's game.  I don't know if he'll ever be able to translate that to the big leagues, but the possibility is what makes me want to hold on to him. 

I think since Mayo hasn't been called up its starting to tell me they don't like him at 3B as there is certainly room and need for a good RH bat. So I suspect Holliday will be in Baltimore next season.

Mayo just returned from injury recently. It's not like he's been tearing it up for the past month and still not getting promoted. I have major questions about his defense, but don't think him not getting the call yet is necessarily an indictment of his glove.

Since returning from injury here are his June numbers:

https://www.baseball...e=bgl&year=2024

avg - .438

OBP - .518

OPS - 1.5.18

That looks like hes tearing the cover off the ball to me.

Since returning from injury here are his June numbers:

 

https://www.baseball...e=bgl&year=2024

 

avg - .438

OBP - .518

OPS - 1.5.18

 

That looks like hes tearing the cover off the ball to me.

He is, but he just returned like 10 days ago.  He's hit well all year, but missing time kind of resets the clock a bit.  They were never gonna call him up immediately upon returning, so all I'm saying is that not having called him up yet is not a strong indicator of their evaluation of his defense.

He's played 13 games since he's come back. Not sure how much a clock reset they need to see? But then I don't see him just his numbers....which look pretty dang good to me.

He's played 13 games since he's come back. Not sure how much a clock reset they need to see? But then I don't see him just his numbers....which look pretty dang good to me.

He rehabbed in Aberdeen first, a bit less time back at Norfolk.  I think they'd have wanted at least a week back playing before considering a promotion no matter how great he was hitting, so he's had that much time but only getting there a few days ago.  Having just gotten back is why I think his lack of a promotion doesn't reveal their thoughts on his defense.  There certainly are questions about the defense, but that they didn't call him up for this series doesn't make me think they have decided he can't field the position.  If they leave him down another month, then that would speak louder to his defense at 3B, but even then I'd think some other factors are also plausible reasons (roster positioning for a trade, perhaps trying to preserve his rookie status in 2025).

Can't ask for anything more from the bat, for sure.  He's checked all the offensive boxes.

I think management should do whatever it takes to get pitching in here.  I don't care about untradeable people.  The O's have a defense and offense that can win the WS given what else is out there.  The only only weakness is pitching.  This year the Yanks are falling big time, Cleveland can't stand the test of time.  It is wide open for the Orioles.  Next year, who knows?  Maybe the Yanks pay Burnes and steal him away.  I think you go for it even if it means trading someone who is deemed untradeable. 

Nobody is completely untradable, but the Pirates probably aren't giving up Paul Skenes, so it's hard to imagine who else would be a big enough get that I'd pull the trigger.

If the O’s shop Holliday to gauge interest, a market will develop. I liked how the article pointed out it may cause teams to re-think their own in-season strategy regarding their own postseason picture. 

Mentioned in the other thread, adding more words/details here.

I know it's difficult to do this here, but I'd suggest an intentional setup piece and there's several reasons I'd do it to create value for other moves.  It's (indirectly) part of the first deal for a reason, so...I've mentioned this before, but I'm leaving the details out (distraction) and we'll come back to it after the direct Skubal thoughts.

Trade 1: Ramon Urias (+other) to DC for Patrick Corbin (+conditional cash and other)

There's more to that, who cares, but....

Trade 2:  Holliday and Corbin to DET for Skubal and Javier Baez (+15M)

I'll extend the thoughts/discussion below, but quickly, I'm not sure Holliday would be enough to get Skubal.  People can argue every side (risk of pitching, value of controlled years, importance of starting pitching, sellers market, etc, etc)...but it's hard to get the "total prospect Talent" required for a Cy candidate (along with Burnes) controlled for multiple years which scuttles most deals.  If they wanted Holliday and Basallo plus other pieces, it can be hard to match up.

...but offer to add a top Talent (Holiday) and move Baez's contract, I'm not sure how the Tigers can say no. 

 Now it's Holliday but you can absorb cost risk in a non-prospect way.

I'll include Baez details below but shortening here. 

Baez:  Javier (age 31) has been a total disaster in Detroit. He's currently OPSing .456 and has been in freefall the last couple years since signing a big deal (.671 in '22 and .596 in '23).  He was coming off an .800+ OPS in 2021.

Baez is owed 25M this year (prorated portion) and he's signed for 3 more years (25/24/24) for 73M.

There's really 2 pieces to this....a performance piece and the cost piece.  

Performance.  Baez has been terrible in Detroit.  I have no idea what is actually wrong.  I read some articles on Baez and it seems he's frustrated but accountable to the struggles.  It seems like he may have some kind of a core/back (physical) issue that he's been fighting.  Baez used to be contact challenged, but had a good power profile and was always an outstanding defender and good speed.

I think there's something wrong in whatever the Tigers are doing with their hitters.  You just had Tork sent back to the minors.  Greene is having a good season this year but that's been the exception for nearly all Detroit hitters over the last couple years.

I don't know what they're doing, but it seems like something is wrong.  Is that fixable? I don't know.  My perspective would be (alongside the cost piece below) that he can basically take (a more limited) Urias' role on the 2024 Orioles, let him work with the trainers and hitting coaches and see if they can't find elements of his full spectrum (plus defense and baserunning) game.

Can he "stand up a little straighter" and become the better, more athletic version of what he used to be?  Again, I think you can tell him he's getting first shot at the 2B job in 2025.  Just use the rest of this season to get physically and mentally back on track and let's see what happens.

On the cost side, I'd want to do something I always suggest.  I want 48 hours.  I want him to buy into a restructure of his deal to be part of the Orioles.

He's owed 73M over the next 3 years.  Add a 2M year (age 36) at the back, so that's 75M over 4 years.  Restructure the deal as a 15M payment (Detroit) and 4/60 over '25-'28 (15M per).  The Tigers are taking Corbin (25M in 2024) which is a direct offset with Baez's 2024 salary (25M) and Corbin is owed 10M deferred which they are eating.  So the 10M (Corbin) plus the 15M (DET payment) means the Tigers are saving just under 50M. 

I don't "want" Baez....but if you can used the negative value of Baez to get Skubal, figure out if he can help.  Maybe you just release him and eat the money.  Maybe you pair him with Mateo in the coming years.  Maybe he can hold it down.  Maybe you get a different guy.  You have a guy like Mac Horvath you can start grooming and we've talked about guys like Griff O'Ferrel and some of the HS kids in the coming draft.

Regardless, Skubal would be in the rotation for a couple years.