I'm not a Ravens fan but this isn't so much to highlight the disappointment as to point out it's there.

 

I'm a Bengals fan.  I don't have to concern myself with NFL disappointment because they have given me zero reasons to have expectations.  I have no expectations so I can't be disappointed.

 

I'm also an Ohio State fan.  I grew up in Columbus, Ohio so, by law, they are my favorite professional team.  I was immensely disappointed last Monday.  Ohio State went 7-1, watched Michigan chicken out instead of getting pummeled, won the Big 10, exorcised last years referee debacle convincingly against Clemson in the BCS and lost to the clearly best team in the country.  I still expected a win.  I want to show up and beat them.  They weren't supposed to be better than Clemson and yet they throttled them.  You're in the final Game, win.

 

I am disappointed with Ohio State's success and I'm not disappointed by the Bengal's gross failure.

 

If the Bill lose to the Chiefs next week, their fans euphoria today will be over-shadowed by that loss, much the way the excitement of the Ravens beating the Titans last week vanishes in the loss to Buffalo last night.

 

This is common and part of human nature.  Our perception of a situation is largely driven by our expectations going in.  It's true in relationships, work, sports, cafeteria food and basically everything else.

 

In life, if you're doing everything right, you have a great opportunity to 'win' (however you want to define it).  It's not really a competition for the most part.  

 

In Sports, that's not the case.  If every team does everything right and has (team, media, fans) the expectation of Championship, there's still only going to be one winner.  Everyone else will be disappointed.  It is, literally, the nature of competition.  There is no opportunity for everyone to win.

 

For the Ravens community, the game wasn't 5 minutes old and the discussion had already turned to what needs to change.  Lamar Jackson is an MVP and one of the best players in the NFL....but is he good enough?  FO? Head Coach? Coaching? QB? Players?  "we" got beat in the Playoffs again, so something needs to change, right?

 

For the Orioles community, nobody cares.  Maybe Freddy Galvis will sign.  Eh, who cares.

 

Two years ago, Brody Van Wagenen was hired to lead the Mets' FO.  After 2 disappointing seasons, he's already out of the job.

Mike Elias was hired the same off-season.  He's done nothing but intentionally not try to win and he's on top of the world....#8 Minor League system...awesome!

Five years ago, the Phillies sold rebuilding and they bought 3 years with no expectations.  Everything was great.  2 years into some expectations, MacPhail and Klentac are replaced (I guess technically neither is really gone yet, but they are)...but they got a 5 year run.  They got to trade for Realmuto, sign Harper to a record deal. Spend money however they wanted after 3 years of no accountability and look, winning is still difficult.

 

What sports, not just baseball (certainly not just the Orioles), has realized is that there's tremendous value in lowering the expectations for a % of the fanbases.  More than one fanbase can be happy (or at least not disappointed) despite the nature of competition.  Ownership groups and FOs get a public break in the hyper-active landscape of a 24-hour news cycle and social media.

 

Sports, by design, is supposed to be competitive.  That's what makes it great.  You find a way.  Not everyone wins, so you fight hard to find your best on any surface. It is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.  It's supposed to bring the best out of everyone.

 

It kind of sucks to be a Ravens fan today but that's just because you care.  Passion is typically good fuel for the human spirit, in most things.

 

The Orioles have now spent 3 years telling the fanbase not to care and have yet to do a single significant thing for the 2022 season.  Sad.

A buddy wants to go halfsies on an Orioles mini plan whenever it looks like they'll be letting fans back in. I can't justify it. I really can't. And I love baseball (though the HR or nothing evolution is hurting that a little bit), love the Orioles, and once upon a time would have never imagined saying no to going to games.

But they've signaled that the success of the major league product is of ZERO importance to the organization for the foreseeable future. Since that's the case, I can't justify spending a single penny on the major league product. Frankly because it's not going to be a major league caliber show. Why invest time in watching the major league product when the folks who run it have NO GOAL OR INTENT to try to win games? I don't think that's hyperbole at all, but they legit don't care about winning major league games right now. Until they prove otherwise, it won't change for me.

A buddy wants to go halfsies on an Orioles mini plan whenever it looks like they'll be letting fans back in. I can't justify it. I really can't. And I love baseball (though the HR or nothing evolution is hurting that a little bit), love the Orioles, and once upon a time would have never imagined saying no to going to games.

But they've signaled that the success of the major league product is of ZERO importance to the organization for the foreseeable future. Since that's the case, I can't justify spending a single penny on the major league product. Frankly because it's not going to be a major league caliber show. Why invest time in watching the major league product when the folks who run it have NO GOAL OR INTENT to try to win games? I don't think that's hyperbole at all, but they legit don't care about winning major league games right now. Until they prove otherwise, it won't change for me.

The 2019 roster had significantly fewer young players who seem like they'll be part of the future of the team than this year's team (Mountcastle, Kremer, presumably Diaz at some point, etc) and going to the game where they got the Rio Ruiz walkoff against the Astros was still one of the more fun moments I've had attending games.

 

If you think something exciting at a home game is exactly the same on TV than in-person than I can't disagree with you there but given even the worst teams are still gonna get 50 wins one way or another, I think it's worth going to some games to have the excitement of the crowd reacting to something exciting or surprising at the same time as you. 

Had no idea you were a Bengals fan and I just posted in the announcer thread that the franchises have the same longstanding problems with how they're run.

 

I absolutely love baseball but not having the pipeline we had when I was growing up eventually wore on me. I'm glad the minor league talent is much better now. That's why I like listening to Bob and The Verge, I was always interested in the minors. I'm putting faith in Elias and am following more closely now.

 

Stupid questions though... How long can we remain competitive this season? I know the law of averages will catch up but what are the chances we stay semi competitive for a while like last year? Also, do we have enough arms that some will perform this season and the games themselves will be competitive? Nothing worse than it being 6-1 after four innings. Is there a shot we play good baseball even if we're a bad team? Thanks for bearing with me on this. I've been really busy with football and haven't kept up as much. Apathy set in.

How long can we remain competitive this season? I know the law of averages will catch up but what are the chances we stay semi competitive for a while like last year? Also, do we have enough arms that some will perform this season and the games themselves will be competitive? Nothing worse than it being 6-1 after four innings. Is there a shot we play good baseball even if we're a bad team? 

 

The Orioles aren't trying to be competitive this season and they are intentionally telling you so (both in words and actions) so in that respect, it's related to this thread.

 

Semi-competitive is all expectation based, right?  If the Orioles hang out around .500 and finish with 72 wins (of 162), that will be viewed as some type of success.  It's a meaningless result although it will credited (and hyped) as some type of 'continued improvement'.  Some people will lament we didn't finish low enough to get a better draft pick (they'll be disappointed because they have a different expectation too).

 

This will be a better team (at least on paper) than the 2019 and 2020 teams.  The 2018 team was better, but they lost 2 wheels on a mountain road and ...well... we saw the result of that.

 

Means, Cobb, Akin and Kremer is a good 4-some of SP.  Lopez isn't likely much, but he can be a modestly competitive arm.  The Orioles have 3-5 guys waiting to get their opportunity and there's always a handful of starts for the next guys (injuries, issues). Best guys (GRod, DLHall) are still a little down the road, but they are moving up the prospect charts.

 

There's actually nothing wrong with this team if they wanted to compete.  They needed to improve a SP (Kluber?) and the Closer (Hand?) and if they were more aggressive about 2B, 3B and SS, maybe LF depending on what you wanted to do....you could actually have a reasonably competitive team.

I absolutely love baseball but not having the pipeline we had when I was growing up eventually wore on me. I'm glad the minor league talent is much better now. That's why I like listening to Bob and The Verge, I was always interested in the minors. I'm putting faith in Elias and am following more closely now.

 

This is good and related to this thread because it's actually the same thing (sort of).

 

They hired Elais, told you to expect better things in the minors and you changed your expectations from the past.

 

The players that are largely driving the results (improved consideration of the system) of the current minors are mostly not Elias guys.

 

Everything Mike has done is fine/good (analytics -good, staff-fine, IFA-good, development-fine)...but part of our view of everything is we're sold the process of rebuilding even though it has little to do with that traditional view of rebuilding. 

 

They gave you an expectation they knew they could meet and it feels better. 

That's a different consequence of expectation, but similar in it's application. 

Had no idea you were a Bengals fan and I just posted in the announcer thread that the franchises have the same longstanding problems with how they're run.

 

I doubt there are many Bengal-Oriole fans.  I used to blame it on the colors but it's possible it's just my fault.  My bad.

I doubt there are many Bengal-Oriole fans. I used to blame it on the colors but it's possible it's just my fault. My bad.

Hey dude, are you a Reds fan too?

Just curious as to why you are an Orioles and Bengals fan.

The Orioles aren't trying to be competitive this season and they are intentionally telling you so (both in words and actions) so in that respect, it's related to this thread.

 

Semi-competitive is all expectation based, right?  If the Orioles hang out around .500 and finish with 72 wins (of 162), that will be viewed as some type of success.  It's a meaningless result although it will credited (and hyped) as some type of 'continued improvement'.  Some people will lament we didn't finish low enough to get a better draft pick (they'll be disappointed because they have a different expectation too).

 

This will be a better team (at least on paper) than the 2019 and 2020 teams.  The 2018 team was better, but they lost 2 wheels on a mountain road and ...well... we saw the result of that.

 

Means, Cobb, Akin and Kremer is a good 4-some of SP.  Lopez isn't likely much, but he can be a modestly competitive arm.  The Orioles have 3-5 guys waiting to get their opportunity and there's always a handful of starts for the next guys (injuries, issues). Best guys (GRod, DLHall) are still a little down the road, but they are moving up the prospect charts.

 

There's actually nothing wrong with this team if they wanted to compete.  They needed to improve a SP (Kluber?) and the Closer (Hand?) and if they were more aggressive about 2B, 3B and SS, maybe LF depending on what you wanted to do....you could actually have a reasonably competitive team.

So let me see if I understand this correctly.

 

If the O's added high end starter, a closer, changed 1/3 of their OF, and 3/4 of their infield they could be reasonably competitive? In other words change 1/4 of their roster and they could be reasonably competitive.  

 

You make it sound like that would be so easy to do? Maybe or maybe not. But the real question is two fold.

1. At what long term cost would this reasonably competitive team come at? Would it all be simply spending more money or would they have to trade away pieces that have more long term potential upside?

2. Would they REALLY be competitive, this year, in the ALE?

Hey dude, are you a Reds fan too?

Just curious as to why you are an Orioles and Bengals fan.

 

I don't know how much you want here, but I'll try to do this quickly.  I grew up (as I said) in Columbus, OH...so growing up I was Bengals-Reds.  I started collecting Baseball Cards in 1976.  We also vacationed in Bethany Beach since I was as young as I can remember so somewhere very early being in Delaware and collecting cards, I started to be Colts-Orioles also.  Cal Ripken became my favorite player and I remember rooting for the '79 Orioles (I would have been about 12) in the "We are Family" Series against Willie Stargell and the Pirates.  I didn't live in Baltimore so when the Colts moved I didn't take it as hard and it just stopped my Baltimore football fandom.  After the Big Red Machine broke up, I solidified my support for the Orioles.  We would get the Orioles games on the radio at the beach.

 

Actually I look back at times and wonder why, and I think it's some combination of location, team success and the players (stars) that solidified my longer-term (last 30 years) rooting interests. 

I don't know how much you want here, but I'll try to do this quickly. I grew up (as I said) in Columbus, OH...so growing up I was Bengals-Reds. I started collecting Baseball Cards in 1976. We also vacationed in Bethany Beach since I was as young as I can remember so somewhere very early being in Delaware and collecting cards, I started to be Colts-Orioles also. Cal Ripken became my favorite player and I remember rooting for the '79 Orioles (I would have been about 12) in the "We are Family" Series against Willie Stargell and the Pirates. I didn't live in Baltimore so when the Colts moved I didn't take it as hard and it just stopped my Baltimore football fandom. After the Big Red Machine broke up, I solidified my support for the Orioles. We would get the Orioles games on the radio at the beach.

Actually I look back at times and wonder why, and I think it's some combination of location, team success and the players (stars) that solidified my longer-term (last 30 years) rooting interests.

That's perfect.

There is usually some kind of local connection.

Thanks for responding.

2. Would they REALLY be competitive, this year, in the ALE?

 

I would like to respond to this separately, if I could.  We've done this many times and I'm happy to continue, it is, after all, an Orioles message board.  I will be repeating myself, but you apparently don't already know this answer so apologies to those that think this is a broken record.

 

I do not believe there's any reasonable condition where the Orioles will have a dominant, out-Talent everyone else, position.  Again, that doesn't mean it can't happen, but even the teams we think are that, sometimes aren't (see: 2015 Nationals).

 

There is no projectable window where you could pre-plan to 'go for it' based on the relative competition in the AL East.  Teams argue for "Competition Cycle" when it's convenient for them.  The Cardinals aren't in some Cycle.

 

Therefore, you need to understand how you are going to win (Performance Formula) and do the best you can to maximize that short term and anything longer than short term.

 

Today, there's no difference in "what could be" in any future year as a function of rebuilding in 2019, 2020 and 2021.  2022 opportunity is basically exactly the same as it would be regardless of win position the last 2 years.

 

So if you think the answer to your question is "no" then you are saying there's no way the Orioles can EVER be competitive. 

 

I disagree with that.  If we wanted to be competitive this year, we could be.  You have to do some work, but they didn't want to be competitive last year, generally considered to have #30 of 30 in terms of Talent and yet at one point were 16-12, playing crazy good baseball and we'd actually have a later series with the Yankees where we could have taken the 8th WC spot from them. 

 

I don't think there's that much Talent disparity across teams in MLB.  I keep saying this, but from an expectation standpoint, there are no (NCAAM Tourney model) 1 vs 16 games.  Maybe you get some 4-13 type matchups, but even those today are generated by a handful of teams that intentionally aren't trying to be competitive.  If your Play Set was made up of Talent across the 5-12 seeds, if I was an 8, I'd take my chances and win on the field (see: 2012-2016 Orioles), my goal would still be to be that 5 seed level of Talent.

Dude I just don't understand your thinking here? 

 

1. Assess the O's current roster and potential pieces that may come up this year from the minors.

2. Assess the other teams current rosters in the division.

3. Assess the pieces you think are missing in #1 that are reasonably available.

 

That should give you a decent idea if the O's could be competitive this year What am I missing?

So let me see if I understand this correctly.

If the O's added high end starter, a closer, changed 1/3 of their OF, and 3/4 of their infield they could be reasonably competitive? In other words change 1/4 of their roster and they could be reasonably competitive.

You make it sound like that would be so easy to do? Maybe or maybe not. But the real question is two fold.
1. At what long term cost would this reasonably competitive team come at? Would it all be simply spending more money or would they have to trade away pieces that have more long term potential upside?

So thanks for this. As I've said before, the last 2+ years, I tend not to do a lot of "what I'd do" because we aren't trying to win and nobody cares and you get a lot of other lazy comments. I always have a series of what I'd do, scenarios.

Some of the options I discuss have already been traded or signed in reasonable deals.

Kluber was a guy I wanted, I though he'd go a little cheaper, but I have no issues giving him what he got. I wanted Britton, NYY picked up his extension. Brad Hand passed through waivers at 10M and then signed for slightly more than 10M.

...but let's make this easy...since it is.

Trade for Jon Gray 6M (I'd try and extend him for 2 more years)
Sign Trevor Rosnethall 3/20M with some incentives for GF
Sign Didi Gregorius 3/50M (15M per, 5M b/o on team option)
Trade for Kris Bryant 19.5M (discussed before, same things)
Trade for Odor (salary dump) to get Gallo also.

That is SP, CL, SS, 3B, 2B and RF (move Santander to LF)

A lineup could look something like
1B Mancini
SS Gregorius
DH Mountcastle
RF Gallo
3B Bryant
LF Santander
CF Hays
C Severino/Sisco
2B Odor

SP: Means, Cobb (extend), Gray, Akin, Kremer

That is an excellent defensive team with some significant offensive upside.

That team would cost about 112M in 2021 including the 17M owed Davis (roughly 122M in 2022 and under 100M in 2023)

That team wouldn't cost you any of your primary options in terms of the guys you'd expect to take over for guys in these 2 and 3 year windows. ie guys like Rutschman, GRod, Hall, Gunner Henderson, Westburg, Hjerstad, etc.

That team is every bit as good as anything anyone else would project any time now or in the future.

That team has the exact same downstream opportunity as any other team you (anyone) wants to project.

Dude I just don't understand your thinking here? 

 

1. Assess the O's current roster and potential pieces that may come up this year from the minors.

2. Assess the other teams current rosters in the division.

3. Assess the pieces you think are missing in #1 that are reasonably available.

 

That should give you a decent idea if the O's could be competitive this year What am I missing?

 

Apologies, I started the thing I just posted (to respond to 1. ) over an hour ago and went and did something else...just getting back to it.

 

That team is competitive in the AL East in 2021, 2022 and 2023.  Again, if you think that team isn't competitive then I'd ask you to describe a team (in any year) you think IS competitive.

 

The AL East has good, competitive teams, but they aren't a bunch of All-Star teams.

Thank you. I have no expectations for the team because for me it's playoffs or bust and I have no reason to believe this is a team that can make the playoffs or make a real run.

 

I would just like some hope in the form of good, young pitching and controllable talent. Make the games interesting and have a team that plays hard/other cliches etc. Just make the games watchable until we're ready to make moves like the ones you outlined above. Dude- I'm glad that you seem to think we're closer to being a playoff team than I thought. Cool to see that kind of confidence. Thanks again.

Dude- I'm glad that you seem to think we're closer to being a playoff team than I thought. Cool to see that kind of confidence. Thanks again.

 

Just to be clear, I don't think our current process is responsible for anything.  I'm OK with most of the things they are doing, but I always believe you can find a way to compete if you want to (any year) while still building the best opportunity to can afford in the future.

 

This thread is about the consequences of expectations, both high and low.

 

I personally am good with high expectations and working hard to meet that challenge, every year, now and into the future.  Disappointment is part of the equation when you put yourself out there.  Like I said in starting this...Buffalo is disappointed this week and the win over the Ravens is distant....they want fixes for the next step too.

 

The ownership team is on a different (non-baseball) path right now, rebuilding is a pawn in that, but on a competent team with commitment, hey, go fight.  Be the Cardinals of the AL.

So thanks for this. As I've said before, the last 2+ years, I tend not to do a lot of "what I'd do" because we aren't trying to win and nobody cares and you get a lot of other lazy comments. I always have a series of what I'd do, scenarios.

Some of the options I discuss have already been traded or signed in reasonable deals.

Kluber was a guy I wanted, I though he'd go a little cheaper, but I have no issues giving him what he got. I wanted Britton, NYY picked up his extension. Brad Hand passed through waivers at 10M and then signed for slightly more than 10M.

...but let's make this easy...since it is.

Trade for Jon Gray 6M (I'd try and extend him for 2 more years)
Sign Trevor Rosnethall 3/20M with some incentives for GF
Sign Didi Gregorius 3/50M (15M per, 5M b/o on team option)
Trade for Kris Bryant 19.5M (discussed before, same things)
Trade for Odor (salary dump) to get Gallo also.

That is SP, CL, SS, 3B, 2B and RF (move Santander to LF)

A lineup could look something like
1B Mancini
SS Gregorius
DH Mountcastle
RF Gallo
3B Bryant
LF Santander
CF Hays
C Severino/Sisco
2B Odor

SP: Means, Cobb (extend), Gray, Akin, Kremer

That is an excellent defensive team with some significant offensive upside.

That team would cost about 112M in 2021 including the 17M owed Davis (roughly 122M in 2022 and under 100M in 2023)

That team wouldn't cost you any of your primary options in terms of the guys you'd expect to take over for guys in these 2 and 3 year windows. ie guys like Rutschman, GRod, Hall, Gunner Henderson, Westburg, Hjerstad, etc.

That team is every bit as good as anything anyone else would project any time now or in the future.

That team has the exact same downstream opportunity as any other team you (anyone) wants to project.

Clearly that roster is better than what we are going to put out there. Perhaps by a fair bit. I am not sure that is a playoff level roster with that rotation. But thats maybe.

 

So you say that this roster doesn't impact at all the future expected lineup. Ok but your lineup is based upon three trades (Bryant, Gray, and Odor). Who are you giving up that actually gets you those guys that aren't part of the projected future?

 

I am warming up to your thoughts here. Just trying to ascertain how good such a roster really would be and could it really be obtained without mortgaging the future.

I am warming up to your thoughts here. 

 

Just to touch on this...we all agree the Orioles are going to do nothing.  My guess is they are sitting on things for at least another 2 years (we'll see) and it has nothing to do with Baseball  This is just a thought exercise.  The reasons they are (or aren't) doing the things they are has nothing to do with the capacity of the Orioles (market, everything else) to do these things.  That's always my point.  The Orioles lack the will to perform and that's largely, imo, a Leadership issue.

So you say that this roster doesn't impact at all the future expected lineup. Ok but your lineup is based upon three trades (Bryant, Gray, and Odor). Who are you giving up that actually gets you those guys that aren't part of the projected future?

 

So let's do this, this way....look at the lineup in a 5-year window.  The date in (202x) is the first full year you'd project a player, so that player could be anywhere from May (service) to July (trade) to September (experience) debuting the year before.  Any contract number includes 2021 in it just for simplicity.  So we say we want Trey to be an anchor for the team and extend him 3 years into FA so it looks something like...4.75/7.25/10/10/10...so 5/42

 

 

A lineup could look something like
1B Mancini  5/42
SS Gregorius 3/50 - G Henderson (2024)
DH Mountcastle - 6/arb
RF Gallo 3/27 - Hjerstad (2023)
3B Bryant 6/125 - Mayo (2024)
LF Santander 4/arb  TBD*
CF Hays 5/arb
C Severino/Sisco - Rutschman (2023)
2B Odor 2/24 - Westberg (2023)

 

Means 4/arb

Cobb 3/27 - GRodriguez (2023)

Gray 3/25 - DL Hall (2023)
Akin 6/arb

Kremer 6/arb

 

So that lays out as something as a Plan.  People like to get wrapped up on "what if everything doesn't work out like you think?" ....well, you are dynamic enough and deep enough that you can continue to iterate the plan as things change.  It's not locked in stone.  You don't announce it.

 

...but the reality of roster management is that everyone doesn't fit in terms of roster rules or development opportunity.  You have to make choices.  Deferring choices doesn't mean you make better choices, they are just different ones.  Mike Yaz was getting MVP votes last year in SF....that was a choice...he wasn't projected to get opportunity in Baltimore based roster and projection and whatever else.

 

So guys like Diaz, McKenna, Stewart, Baumann, Lowther, Varva, Nevin are going to be roster casualties at some point....they can lose value because you have no room for them and just hold onto until the rules have demand.  If I talk about how you churn your roster, this will get longer and longer.  I have a series of rules I'd follow.

 

...but no matter what you do, you still get to add more system depth in a variety of ways (built in trades, draft, IFA) regardless of the win position at the ML level.