57 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

I feel good about Marcum, Bundy, Matusz, Hammel and Chen/Arrieta/Britton.

Haven't read the whole thread but just saw this post. Big buyer beware sign on Shawn Marcum. His shoulder was bothering him all spring and I believe he had a similar problem last year as well. He tired badly last year and was awful in the playoffs. I'd just be very careful about a multi year contract or giving up much to get him.

He is having a very good year this year. Peripherals are all very solid.

But if the shoulder is an issue, then I agree...stay away.

[Oriole85]

I'd be pretty shocked if Hamels, Greinke, or another expensive top-shelf player came here in-season, given our farm system and a probable reluctance to pay that kind of salary. Depending on the outcome of this season, I see it more likely to spending more in the offseason for not quite expensive but yet effective pitcher.

[JeremyStrain]

We have $30M to spend just to get back to what we are spending this year, with more big contracts coming off soon. Money shouldn't be an issue here until you get to luxury tax levels, which we are NO where near.

The players you have to give up for Garza are not going to be spare parts, they are going to be pieces we'll actually need in the future. We aren't that well off that giving up the future for one or two seasons is going to pay off.

1) Yes, we are losing payroll but we also have arb raises and things like that, which will impact the payroll.

2) If you are paying 22+ million for Greinke and 16+ million for Jones plus other arb raises, how high is your payroll going to be? It doesn't matter if some deals are coming off, others will be added on. The payroll is going to have to be 130+ million, at least, to justify that.

3) And yes, you won't get him for spare parts but if you can get him for a package similar to what Chris said for Hamels, then I am ok with that.

If you are going to compete for a title, you're going to have to spend > $100m that's just how it works because you have to secure one wave of talent, and then have another cheap wave meet up with them at the same time to have enough depth to fill in a FA or two to compete.

You can't get hung up on those numbers, you are speculating right now, the market will bare what it will bare. You would have guessed $20m a year for Jones a couple weeks ago, maybe they only end up around $17-18m, hard to say right now until teams go shopping.

I would much rather keep Schoop and Birdwell than gamble that a guy is going to extend with you for the same money you don't want to pay him in FA. If you're spending the same amount either way (this year or in 2) I'd like to do it without losing prospects.

[SportsGuy]

1) Yes, we are losing payroll but we also have arb raises and things like that, which will impact the payroll.

2) If you are paying 22+ million for Greinke and 16+ million for Jones plus other arb raises, how high is your payroll going to be? It doesn't matter if some deals are coming off, others will be added on. The payroll is going to have to be 130+ million, at least, to justify that.

3) And yes, you won't get him for spare parts but if you can get him for a package similar to what Chris said for Hamels, then I am ok with that.

If you are going to compete for a title, you're going to have to spend > $100m that's just how it works because you have to secure one wave of talent, and then have another cheap wave meet up with them at the same time to have enough depth to fill in a FA or two to compete.

You can't get hung up on those numbers, you are speculating right now, the market will bare what it will bare. You would have guessed $20m a year for Jones a couple weeks ago, maybe they only end up around $17-18m, hard to say right now until teams go shopping.

I would much rather keep Schoop and Birdwell than gamble that a guy is going to extend with you for the same money you don't want to pay him in FA. If you're spending the same amount either way (this year or in 2) I'd like to do it without losing prospects.

What you have to spend and what PA will allow the team to spend are 2 different things.

I wouldn't have guessed over 20M a year for Jones at any point.

No way Hamels and Greinke stay under 20M unless they get hurt or have really poor performance.

[SportsGuy]

BTW, another potential buy low guy is DeLaRosa...Still coming back from TJ surgery, so you have to see how he is after getting back but he gets a lot of K's and gets a lot of GBs. Solid guy for OPACY.

[RichardZ]

http://mlb.sbnation.... ... er-brewers

http://www.thebrewer... ... on-dl.html

Regarding Shawn Marcum.

Read these two articles. Won't take long. Certainly, reason for concern. I'm sure, even if the O's were interested, Angelos would never sign off on it after the physical.

[SportsGuy]

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/5/2847632/shaun-marcum-injury-shoulder-brewers

http://www.thebrewer... ... on-dl.html


Read these two articles. Won't take long. Certainly, reason for concern. I'm sure, even if the O's were interested, Angelos would never sign off on it after the physical.

I do agree its cause for concern and it probably would be enough where I don't go more than 3 years.

Still, his velocity isn't down and is numbers are all similar, so I see no cause for concern performance wise.

But it is a long term issue you have to be concerned about.

[JeremyStrain]

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/5/2847632/shaun-marcum-injury-shoulder-brewers

http://www.thebrewer... ... on-dl.html


Read these two articles. Won't take long. Certainly, reason for concern. I'm sure, even if the O's were interested, Angelos would never sign off on it after the physical.

I do agree its cause for concern and it probably would be enough where I don't go more than 3 years.

Still, his velocity isn't down and is numbers are all similar, so I see no cause for concern performance wise.

But it is a long term issue you have to be concerned about.

Ticking time bomb.

[SportsGuy]

I do agree its cause for concern and it probably would be enough where I don't go more than 3 years.

Still, his velocity isn't down and is numbers are all similar, so I see no cause for concern performance wise.

But it is a long term issue you have to be concerned about.

Ticking time bomb.

You could make the argument that Greinke is as well, just for different reasons.

[Mackus]

You could make the argument that Greinke is as well, just for different reasons.

It's pretty easy to make a compelling argument against signing any FA pitcher.

I frequently tell anyone who'll listen that all girls are crazy, it's just a matter of how much and what kind. It's the same with signing SPs. All starters are risky. It's just a matter of how much and what kind.

[Oriole85]

You could make the argument that Greinke is as well, just for different reasons.

It's pretty easy to make a compelling argument against signing any FA pitcher.

I frequently tell anyone who'll listen that all girls are crazy, it's just a matter of how much and what kind. It's the same with signing SPs. All starters are risky. It's just a matter of how much and what kind.

You could say all big contracts have their risks, pitchers even more so which is why some teams have policies against offering more than X amount of years to pitchers.

Unless you have a great farm system like Tampa, you have to spend most likely to compete.

[SportsGuy]

You could make the argument that Greinke is as well, just for different reasons.

It's pretty easy to make a compelling argument against signing any FA pitcher.

I frequently tell anyone who'll listen that all girls are crazy, it's just a matter of how much and what kind. It's the same with signing SPs. All starters are risky. It's just a matter of how much and what kind.

Yea, I am just commenting on the ticky time bomb..Greinke is because of his depression.

[RichardZ]

Greinke is a risk? Why because he walked out of ST about 5 years ago because of depression or whatever? Has there been anything since then? You walk away from your team, you don't get paid. You need shoulder surgery, you still get paid. Unless Greinke has had problems since then, I don't worry about it much. Marcum's shoulder is a time bomb like Allstar said.

[SportsGuy]

Greinke is a risk? Why because he walked out of ST about 5 years ago because of depression or whatever? Has there been anything since then? You walk away from your team, you don't get paid. You need shoulder surgery, you still get paid. Unless Greinke has had problems since then, I don't worry about it much. Marcum's shoulder is a time bomb like Allstar said.

But there is also a 80-100 million dollar less risk attached to it.

[JeremyStrain]

Greinke is a risk? Why because he walked out of ST about 5 years ago because of depression or whatever? Has there been anything since then? You walk away from your team, you don't get paid. You need shoulder surgery, you still get paid. Unless Greinke has had problems since then, I don't worry about it much. Marcum's shoulder is a time bomb like Allstar said.

Greinke has been fighting it ongoing for the past few years, but he's done really well with treatment. That's part of why he doesn't want to play for a major market, the media and fan pressures don't do well when you are dealing with those kinda conditions.

Finding out yesterday that I most likely have a SLAP tear in my labrum, I can tell you even the most minor shoulder pain/trouble can turn out to be something big really easy.

[Mackus]

Yea, I am just commenting on the ticky time bomb..Greinke is because of his depression.

I wouldn't worry too much about that. I tend to agree with RZNJ here. You certainly need to do your homework on him if you're going to pay him that much, but I'd be way more concerned with the fact that he's only been great in terms of raw numbers one year in his career than with the risk of him deciding to hang 'em up again in a few years. And if he quits, he doesn't get paid, as RZNJ said.

All those concerns considered, I would definitely still be interested in Greinke this offseason. Moreso than Hamels.

[Mackus]

Finding out yesterday that I most likely have a SLAP tear in my labrum, I can tell you even the most minor shoulder pain/trouble can turn out to be something big really easy.

Jeez...we get it already your shoulder hurts WAH!!



Just kidding, buddy. Hope you're enjoying some tasty, reality-altering pain meds!

[JeremyStrain]

Finding out yesterday that I most likely have a SLAP tear in my labrum, I can tell you even the most minor shoulder pain/trouble can turn out to be something big really easy.

Jeez...we get it already your shoulder hurts WAH!!



Just kidding, buddy. Hope you're enjoying some tasty, reality-altering pain meds!

That's funny, I was thinking that as I typed it actually Just suddenly have a newfound respect for how easy it is to mess up.

I am in fact, thought I'd get through the work day without it, but that lasted about an hour...so now I'm stuck here until it wears off and I can drive home