37 replies to this topic

[DJ MC]

http://www.grantland... ... re-orioles

EDIT FROM BSL: Please use this thread for all 'Can the O's continue to surprise' stories.

[Nuclear Dish]

This is a very well done article, but there are some holes in it.

1. Britton is a much better ace-in-the-hole this season than Bundy. Britton could be ready sooner, be more experienced, and offer more innings to give the bullpen the rest he insists it will need to maintain its surprising start.

2. There is no way Machado is ready to contribute at 3B this season. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking, and it's good for giving some optimistic counterbalance to what is otherwise a fairly negative look at our chances to end up at .500. But it's complete fantasy.

3. While I agree that the key to the bullpen remaining as solid as it's been to now is keeping the innings down, I don't think the past performance of the relievers is necessarily all that relevant. They are being used in different roles than in the past, they are being handled well by a manager who is on top of every detail, and they are banding together as a group to drive one another to outperform their expectations. In general, relievers are inconsistent from year-to-year, and so there is no telling what the bullpen will accomplish this year.

[BSLChrisStoner]

2. There is no way Machado is ready to contribute at 3B this season. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking, and it's good for giving some optimistic counterbalance to what is otherwise a fairly negative look at our chances to end up at .500. But it's complete fantasy.

I think it is unlikely, but I don't think it is complete fantasy. While Machado is still adjusting to the Eastern League, I imagine the Warehouse is picturing him in an O's uniform next May.

If you can picture him in the Majors in early '13, it is not that much of a stretch to picture him in the Majors in late '12, at-least in-terms of ability and readiness to produce. It tilts to unlikely when you factor in service time issues, and talking about moving him off SS, when he gets to the Majors.

[Nuclear Dish]

It tilts to unlikely when you factor in service time issues, and talking about moving him off SS, when he gets to the Majors.

These are big factors, though. Having him play a brand new position in the stretch run? I can't see it.

[BSLChrisStoner]

These are big factors, though. Having him play a brand new position in the stretch run? I can't see it.

They are huge factors, no doubt. I guess while I pretty much agree with you that it is unlikely, I don't think it can be deemed a complete fantasy.

If Machado gets to the point where he is dominating the Eastern League, and the O's are still in the race come late Summer, he is going to be an option for promotion.

In that scenario, it would be interesting to see what the O's did with Machado and Hardy. Would they move Hardy to 3rd? Would they have Machado getting time at 3rd at Bowie for several weeks, prior to an anticipated promotion?

Fun to think about, but certainly a lot has to take place on the field before really contemplating it.

[SportsGuy]

To me, forget about the idea of bringing up Bundy and Machado this year.

What this organization needs to do, if they are still contending, is bring in some players that can help now and long term.

Guys like Headley and Bourjous, for example.

Of course, they should be looking to do this anyway.

[You Play to Win the Game]

To me, forget about the idea of bringing up Bundy and Machado this year.

What this organization needs to do, if they are still contending, is bring in some players that can help now and long term.

Guys like Headley and Bourjous, for example.

Of course, they should be looking to do this anyway.

The challenge in this line of thought, the correct line of thought mind you, is that if we are still contending, DD/Buck won't be willing to part with pieces of our ML roster during a pennant run, and I doubt we acquire a Headley/Bourjos with just minor league talent we wouldn't mind trading.

[SportsGuy]

We could Headley for MiL pieces IMO...Doubt we can get Bourjous though.

[LanceRinker]

This article seems to have had a good deal of thought put into it, although I agree that it's pretty pie in the sky in calling up Bundy (where his only real spot would be in the bullpen - not happening) and while I won't completely disregard the notion that Machado could get called up in August, that move would only work if we moved Hardy to 3B (which would be fantastic because it shores up the defense there). You don't move Machado to 3B for his first taste of major league experience - I don't care if he's given a couple of weeks to prepare for the switch in Bowie/Norfolk. That's a move you have him make during the offseason and spring training.

[Luke Jackson]

I really, really hope Hardy stays healthy because if he gets hurt, Buck's going to want Machado. I'd like Manny to play the whole year at Bowie. Like Chris said, I think Manny will be with the Orioles at some point next year. I can see June 2013.

[LanceRinker]

I really, really hope Hardy stays healthy because if he gets hurt, Buck's going to want Machado. I'd like Manny to play the whole year at Bowie. Like Chris said, I think Manny will be with the Orioles at some point next year. I can see June 2013.

I don't know - I could see Machado having a strong spring in 2013 and sticking with the club if two things happen:

1) We still have a black hole at third base regarding our defense (and offense for that matter)

2) J.J. Hardy is willing to make the move to third (which I'm sure he would be)

Under this scenario I could definitely see Buck keeping Machado in the majors, but he'd have to have a really impressive spring for that to even be considered though.

[Oriole85]

These are big factors, though. Having him play a brand new position in the stretch run? I can't see it.

They are huge factors, no doubt. I guess while I pretty much agree with you that it is unlikely, I don't think it can be deemed a complete fantasy.

If Machado gets to the point where he is dominating the Eastern League, and the O's are still in the race come late Summer, he is going to be an option for promotion.

In that scenario, it would be interesting to see what the O's did with Machado and Hardy. Would they move Hardy to 3rd? Would they have Machado getting time at 3rd at Bowie for several weeks, prior to an anticipated promotion?

Fun to think about, but certainly a lot has to take place on the field before really contemplating it.

My guess is they would keep Hardy at SS and move Machado with Machado getting reps at SS if Hardy gets a day off. Asking the established veteran to move in the middle of the season just doesn't seem like it would happen even if it's right move. To empathize, this is a complete hypothetical.

[Oriole85]

To me, forget about the idea of bringing up Bundy and Machado this year.

What this organization needs to do, if they are still contending, is bring in some players that can help now and long term.

Guys like Headley and Bourjous, for example.

Of course, they should be looking to do this anyway.

The challenge in this line of thought, the correct line of thought mind you, is that if we are still contending, DD/Buck won't be willing to part with pieces of our ML roster during a pennant run, and I doubt we acquire a Headley/Bourjos with just minor league talent we wouldn't mind trading.

Other than Machado and D. Bundy, nobody is off-limits in this hypothetical scenario. That's not to say we make dumb trades, but this organization is thin on "talent." Really this fun talking about, but very unlikely to happen.

[Oriole85]

2) J.J. Hardy is willing to make the move to third (which I'm sure he would be)

If he's asked to move to third, he'll move to third. Torii Hunter moved to RF. JJ Hardy isn't that good where he can decide where he wants to play.

[Mackus]

I still think no, but I am really hoping yes. It's definitely been a really fun season so far watching the Orioles play well. Every game is worth checking out and, more importantly I think, it's worth it to keep watching even if they fall behind by a 2-3 runs early, which has rarely been the case in recent memory.

We've got more than just a few bright spots to be cheering for this season, and it's been incredibly enjoyable.

[Oriole85]

I still think no, but I am really hoping yes. It's definitely been a really fun season so far watching the Orioles play well. Every game is worth checking out and, more importantly I think, it's worth it to keep watching even if they fall behind by a 2-3 runs early, which has rarely been the case in recent memory.

We've got more than just a few bright spots to be cheering for this season, and it's been incredibly enjoyable.

I'm with you, this winning thing is fun. But I look at the Indians and even more so the Pirates last year. The Diamondbacks proved me wrong, yes I know easier division. And yes I know many are drinking the kool-aid, saying this is a "young" team unlike 2005. Lots more baseball to be played. but I could get used to this!

[SportsGuy]

If Hammel and Chen can continue to be sub 4 ERA pitcher and one of Arrieta or BMat does the same, this team is totally different in terms of their expectations.

But those are big ifs and we just need to see more of everyone.

Health also needs to be on our side..obviously.

[Mackus]

If Hammel and Chen can continue to be sub 4 ERA pitcher and one of Arrieta or BMat does the same, this team is totally different in terms of their expectations.

Exactly. Coming into the season, I felt that biggest thing was that by the end of it, we needed 3 young pitchers to be guys we can rely on to be #2/3 type starters going forward. I was assuming we'd be picking from the lot of Arrieta, Matusz, Briton, Tillman, etc, but Chen and Hammel have sort of forced their way into the conversation, and neither are too old to be eliminated from potentially being a nice piece for the short- to mid-term future (although they are only inked through 2014 and 2013, respectively).

We haven't gotten what we were hoping for from any of the young pitchers (with possible exception of Arrieta, who has been up and down), but these two guys have kept the entire starting rotation together and are probably the biggest reasons why the team is off to such a good start (and the bullpen, which collectively is probably the #1 biggest impact).

[BSLChrisStoner]

With nearly 25% of the season passed, it remains a bit of an open-ended question as to what the O’s are. Here are some of our thoughts on what has been shown, and what we think we know.

1) The Orioles are… a team with power. The O’s are currently leading the Major Leagues with 58 homers, and 5th overall in Slugging %. Baltimore has 7 different players, with at-least 5 homers. If Reimold returns, and Reynolds’ injury does not linger; the O’s have 8 players that figure to have 15+ bombs.

2) The Orioles are… a team with defensive issues, compounded by the complexion of the roster. The up-the-middle defense is fine to good. Markakis is not an issue in RF. You want to be playing Davis’ everyday at 1st. Despite his recent offensive struggles, his overall numbers are good. You want to give him opportunities to play through his current slump (and those in the future) and see what you have from him over 500+ ab’s. His defense at 1st is becoming an issue. You can continue to play him daily through offensive slumps, you can’t play him everyday if he continues to give away runs at 1st.

For several years, we have brought up the fact that the O’s will become more reliant on having Wieters in the lineup as he matures. That time has arrived. The O’s need his bat pretty much everyday. As a catcher, he needs 30-40 days off behind the plate. That means he has to DH, if you want to keep him in the lineup. That is an issue, because Betemit’s best best position is DH, and Johnson can only play 1st. You can play Johnson at 1st, but then you are still left with trying to find Betemit and Davis ab’s against RHP.

This is compounded further when Reynolds returns. I had hoped that Reynolds’ defense would return to his ’09, and ’10 levels, but it has not. The liability that he was in ’11, remains here in ’12. The problem is, Reynolds has a .809 OPS in 2,605 career ab’s, and the O’s need him in the lineup when healthy. When he comes back, you have four players, where ideally only 1 would be in the field.

Perhaps the solution for the rest of this year, will be starting each, and having a bench of capable defensive replacements to use late?

3) The Orioles are… not winning with smoke and mirrors. The O’s are 6th in runs scored, 11th in ERA, 13-7 against the AL East, 11-5 on the road, and 8-3-1 in all series played. Those are all indications of consistently competitive play.

4) The Orioles are… not likely to improve their on-base %. They currently rank 16th overall, 8th in the AL. Last year they were 19th overall, 10th in the AL. When the O’s don’t hit homers, their offense stagnates. If the O’s can improve this any further, and continue slugging; they can go from having an above-average offense, to being a powerhouse.

5) The Orioles are… getting fantastic production from multiple members of the bullpen. My take all year has been that the bullpen can continue to be productive – though not at this current level – as long as the rotation continues to provide regular innings. What is interesting is that the O’s are only 22nd in Quality Starts, and I believe in the lower 1/3 of innings by starters. However, as long as as the starters are not consistently flaming out, the bullpen has a chance to match-up.

6) The Orioles are…abysmal when they attempt to run. So far this year, they have 11 steals, and 10 runners caught stealing. Don’t ever recall seeing a team with that type of ratio. Speed looks better with Avery in the lineup. Chavez can run a bit (though he has to get on-base to be able to run). Reimold gets out of the box quickly for a right-handed hitter. Jones runs well, Markakis is not a plodder. Andino stole 13 bases last year, but has yet to steal a base in ’12.

7) The Orioles are…going to stay as good as their rotation allows them to be. Arrieta was awesome in NY, and abysmal the last two times out. His era is back over 5. (Though his FIP is under 4.) Matusz was fantastic against NY, beat up by Texas, and solid against Tampa Bay. He has yet to go 7 innings in any start. Hammel has pitched liked Kevin Brown. Chen has pitched like a Rookie of the Year candidate, and Tommy Hunter has pitched like a 5th starter. As long as they continue to take the ball every 5th day, I think the O’s will exceed the expectations they entered the year with. The level of surprise will be totally dependent on how good the starters are. Can Arrieta, and Matusz find some positive consistency? Can Hammel continue to pile up K’s, and grounders with his 2 seamer? Chen has pitched like a 2nd starter, does that continue? As the weather warms, does he allow more homers? How does he hold-up, once he is regularly pitching every 5th day? Can Hunter start to keep the ball down, and keep the ball from leaving the park more often?

Will Britton be back at the end of the month, or into early June? If so, does he reach his upside? Who is up next if multiple injuries occur?

8) The Orioles are… 23-14, 9 games over .500. To have their first non-losing year since ’97, Baltimore has to go 58-67 (.464) the rest of the way. I went into the year thinking .500 was possible, but calling for 74 wins. The truth is, after calling for 83 wins last year, I was scared off with another sub 70 win season. I should have stuck with my conviction that there is more talent here than has been claimed. We polled 19 writers and analysts going into ’11. The average predicted win total was 78. To me, those predicted 78 wins, was a more accurate representation of the talent the O’s had last year, vs. the 69 wins they actually achieved. Going into ’12, the O’s upgraded at 1st, LF, and DH. The rotation was improved, the bullpen was improved. There are reasons why a .500 season still might not occur this year, but there are reasons why 81+ wins could happen.

With a quarter of the season passed, we have some ideas of who we think the O’s are. We know these first 37 games have been entertaining. We also know we will have a much clearer understanding of who these O’s actually are by the All-Star break.

[ravens8589]

Chris I think I am hooked because I got on this using my phone lol. Great piece here and very accurate. The starting pitching has been good and Matusz has gotten significantly better as the season has progressed. The hitting could be more timely and it would be better if we weren't hitting so many solo homers. Would be better to see some homers with men on base. Overall the recipe is simple; score runs, starters work deep into games and use the bullpen sparingly so they don't get burnt out. The orioles have done so thus far. Could have a good season. I had us at 75 wins before the season an I stick to that although I believe this team can go at least .500.